WrestleMania 29: Why Recent History Suggests That Alberto Del Rio Will Lose

Ryan DilbertWWE Lead WriterMarch 14, 2013

Photo from WWE.com
Photo from WWE.com

Alberto Del Rio may want to take a few moments to savor his World Heavyweight Championship before his WrestleMania 29 match with Jack Swagger, as recent history suggests he won't retain the title that night.

Come April 7, Del Rio may be saying, "adios" to the big, gold belt.

With the help of TheHistoryOfWWE.com, we can see a disconcerting pattern for holders of that title going into WrestleMania. Of the last 10 WrestleManias, the World Heavyweight Championship has changed hands seven times.

Since WrestleMania XIX, only three men have retained the world title.

Edge kept the belt by defeating Del Rio at WrestleMania 27. Chris Jericho retained against Edge the year before that. Triple H beat Booker T to remain champ way back in 2003.

All the other world champions during that time span left WrestleMania about 40 lbs lighter.

Maybe it's just coincidence. Maybe there's a curse involved. Either way, WrestleMania is not kind to its world champs.

That could mean fans at MetLife Stadium will see a sad-faced Ricardo Rodriguez slumping away from the ring with Del Rio while Zeb Colter and Jack Swagger celebrate the dominance of "real Americans."

It seems it's the World Heavyweight Championship that WWE is willing to pass along at WrestleMania. The company is much stingier with the WWE title.

Since 2003, the success rate for champions to retain at WrestleMania is the aforementioned 30 percent for the World Heavyweight Champion, but a much more comfortable 70 percent for the WWE title holder.

While both those championships are technically of equal value, it often seems that the WWE title is the more prestigious of the two. It more often gets top billing and is bestowed upon the company's biggest star.

That appears to be especially true at WrestleMania where the World Heavyweight Championship match has been used to open the show in the last two years.

None of this bodes well for Alberto Del Rio who is just now getting used to the fit of the belt around his waist. It was only January when Del Rio defeated Big Show at SmackDown to win the title. Chances are, he won’t be having a CM Punk-like reign.

WrestleMania's recent history says Del Rio will lose on April 7.

Of course, history doesn't decide who walks away with the gold, WWE does. If John Cena wins the WWE Championship like so many fans think he will, perhaps WWE will then decide to have the other major champ retain his title in order to balance things out.

A betting man would put his money on Swagger winning, however. The numbers favor the challenger in a big way.