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Memphis (Conference USA No. 1 seed, No. 8 in latest Schmolik 64)
The Tigers are playing their last season in C-USA before joining the Big East's football schools in a yet unnamed conference. They should be the overwhelming favorite to win as they went unbeaten in the regular season. They are playing for seeding and could wind up with as high as a No. 6 or No. 7 if they win the tournament.
Southern Mississippi (Conference USA No, 2 seed, No. 12 (First Four) in Schmolik 64)
The Golden Eagles have an RPI of No. 34. They look very similar to the UAB that made the NCAA Tournament back in 2011 with a similar high RPI and lack of quality wins. Southern Miss has the only win over a team that is firmly in the RPI Top 100 (No. 57 Denver).
I think their only chance at an at-large bid would be to make the final and lose to Memphis—for a third time this season. If Southern Miss hadn't lost to Marshall—RPI No. 203— last week, I would feel a lot better about their chances—their RPI would probably be in the Top 30 if they hadn't lost that game.
One team Southern Miss is cheering for this weekend is Louisiana Tech. Louisiana Tech beat Southern Miss this season, and the Golden Rebels wouldn't want to be compared to them on Selection Sunday.
Others: I can't think of another team at the top of my head from any other conferences that can make it as an at-large bid. I doubt Louisiana Tech or Akron can survive a loss. (Especially Akron after one of their starters got suspended.)
Gonzaga (WCC Tournament Champion, No. 1 in Schmolik 64)
Gonzaga looks to be safe as a No. 1 seed. I can see Louisville or Georgetown passing them for the No. 3 overall top seed, but it really won't matter as Gonzaga would still head west. Right now, I would pick Gonzaga over Miami, Kansas, or any Big Ten champion other than Indiana.
Belmont (Ohio Valley Tournament Champion, No. 10 in Schmolik 64)
The Bruins made a huge comeback in the OVC championship or we would be talking about whether or not Belmont would get in as an at-large team. They have a great RPI—No. 18—and their non conference strength of schedule was No. 2—second in the country. But their only Top 50 win was Middle Tennessee State—No. 29. I think at best, Belmont may make it to an 8-9 game, but I think double digits is more likely. I think they will be a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament, and I wouldn't be too surprised if they make it to the Sweet 16. The Bruins seek their first NCAA Tournament win this season—they are 0-5.
Creighton (MVC Tournament Champion, No. 7 in Schmolik 64)
The Bluejays won their second straight MVC championship. Their RPI is No. 25, so I would expect to see between a No. 6 and No. 9 seed come Selection Sunday. They don't have any wins against the RPI Top 25, so don't be surprised to see them closer to the 8-9 game.
Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt Tournament Semifinals, No. 12 (First Four) in Schmolik 64)
The Blue Raiders were upset in the Sun Belt semifinals but yet maintain an RPI of No. 29. They have no wins against the RPI Top 50 and their only win against the RPI Top 100 is Ole Miss—No. 56. Central Florida is currently just outside the Top 100 at No. 101.
On the other hand, they clearly have a high RPI and their non conference RPI is 18th, and their non conference schedule is ranked 12th. The Selection Committee seems to value quality wins but they also value teams that play tough non conference schedules. What message would they send to MTSU if they rejected them, especially if they take Ole Miss, who they beat?
St. Mary's (WCC Tournament Runner Up, No. 10 in Schmolik 64)
St. Mary's lost three times to Gonzaga. They did beat Creighton in the Bracket Busters event, which probably puts them in good shape to make the tournament along with their RPI (No. 31). Still, it's going to be a long wait for the Gaels and they have been shut out of the tournament a couple of times recently too.
Wichita State (MVC Tournament Runner Up, No. 11 in Schmolik 64)
The Shockers look in now but have to hope there aren't a lot of upsets or bubble teams winning this week. Their non conference RPI is No. 9 and they have victories over Creighton, VCU, and Southern Miss. They did lose to Tennessee though.