Greg Jennings isn't worth $12 million per season, yet that's what he believes he's worth.
According to Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio, "The scuttlebutt in league circles is that Jennings is looking for a deal in free agency that pays as much as $12 million per year."
Confidence is always an admirable quality in sports, but in this case Jennings seriously overestimates his own worth.
If the Jennings of two years ago were the one coming into the open market, then teams wouldn't hesitate to pay him like a top receiver. Unfortunately, his body has let him down the past couple of seasons and there's no guarantee he's healthy enough to warrant such a pricey investment.
Jennings missed most of last season with a nagging groin injury. He started five games for the Green Bay Packers and appeared in eight, but he wasn't nearly as productive as he was in years past, even when he did play.
His two-year totals for 2011 and 2012 come to 1,315 yards and 13 touchdowns—just 50 yards and one touchdown more than his totals in 2010.
The NFL is a league that is heavily invested in the "What have you done for me lately?" creed.
Lately, Jennings has looked like an above-average receiver who has the potential for big plays every once in a while.
Bleacher Report's Scott Kacsmar, who is also a noted statistical guru over at the site pro-football-reference.com, posted this stat on Twitter:
Most 60+ yard receptions since 2006: Greg Jennings (11), DeSean Jackson (11), Steve Smith (10), Andre Johnson (9).— Scott Kacsmar (@CaptainComeback) March 7, 2013
Out of curiosity, I asked him to clarify how many 60-plus-yard receptions Jennings had logged in the past two seasons, to which he replied:
Uno, when Minnesota forgot to cover him in 2011 (79 yards). RT @jessereed78 How many has Jennings had the past two years?— Scott Kacsmar (@CaptainComeback) March 7, 2013
It seems clear that Jennings isn't the same player he used to be. At the least he must prove he can play at the same high level he did in 2010 before he's getting paid like a top receiver.
Will Jennings get a monster contract this spring?
It's also telling that the head coach of the Miami Dolphins, Joe Philbin, who was also the offensive coordinator for Jennings in Green Bay, "isn't a huge fan" of the receiver (h/t Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Bob McGinn).
Jennings clearly overvalues himself heading into the NFL's free-agency period. There's not a single team out there that will be willing to pay a soon-to-be 30-year-old, injury-prone receiver $12 million per year.
Oh, well. You can't blame him for trying, right?
Follow me on Twitter @JesseReed78