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Updated Playoff Odds for Every NBA Team

Adam FromalNational NBA Featured ColumnistJuly 4, 2016

Updated Playoff Odds for Every NBA Team

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    It's time for the home stretch of the 2012-13 NBA season, which means that we're getting more and more clued in as to who will advance to the postseason. 

    Each of the 30 teams has its own set of updated playoff odds, but some of them fall on polar ends of the spectrum. With around 60 games in the books, quite a few teams either have a zero percent chance or a 100 percent chance of advancing past the 82 games they're guaranteed. 

    Where does your team stand? Will they be watching the festivities from the comfort of their own homes, or will they end up participating?

Charlotte Bobcats

2 of 22

    Record: 13-47 (.217)

    Division Standings: No. 5 in Southeast Division

    Conference Standings: No. 15 in Eastern Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 18

     

    At this point in the 2012-13 season, you could replace the Charlotte Bobcats with the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls and still watch as they fall short of the postseason. 

    If Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen and Co. couldn't lead the Bobcats from 18 games back with 22 games to play, then Kemba Walker and his crew most certainly can't. 

    It's another season of futility for Charlotte, one that will end after just 82 games (or fewer) for the third year in a row.

     

    Playoff Odds: 0 percent

Orlando Magic

3 of 22

    Record: 17-44 (.279)

    Division Standings: No. 4 in Southeast Division

    Conference Standings: No. 14 in Eastern Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 14.5

     

    The Orlando Magic couldn't remain in playoff contention after their surprising start to the season, even when J.J. Redick was part of the roster. Now that the Duke product is with the Milwaukee Bucks, the plug has officially been pulled on this campaign. 

    Rob Hennigan has done a nice job assembling young pieces in Orlando, and it's time to let them develop without worrying about whether or not they win games. That's fortunate for the Magic, because they wouldn't win many even if they truly cared. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 0 percent

Cleveland Cavaliers

4 of 22

    Record: 20-40 (.333)

    Division Standings: No. 5 in Central Division

    Conference Standings: No. 12 in Eastern Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 11

     

    The Cleveland Cavaliers sit 11 games shy of the Milwaukee Bucks for that eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, and while they could close the gap a bit, it's an impossibly large margin to close entirely. 

    At this point, the Cavs shouldn't be focusing on the playoffs—this year, at least. The 2013-14 season will have an entirely different tone. 

    For now, Cleveland must allow Dion Waiters, Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson to continue on with their developments, particularly on the defensive end of the court. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 0 percent

Washington Wizards

5 of 22

    Record: 19-39 (.328)

    Division Standings: No. 3 in Southeast Division

    Conference Standings: No. 13 in Eastern Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 11

     

    Maybe if John Wall had returned sooner, the Washington Wizards would still possess a minuscule chance of making it to the postseason. Unfortunately for those in the nation's capital, though, the hole that was dug at the beginning of the season was just too deep. 

    Wall's return might have boosted the Wizards and given them plenty of hope for next season, but even with a 6-4 record in their last 10 games, Washington still sits 11 games out of the eighth seed. 

    With only 24 games to play, that's too large a deficit. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 0 percent

Detroit Pistons

6 of 22

    Record: 23-39 (.371)

    Division Standings: No. 4 in Central Division

    Conference Standings: No. 11 in Eastern Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 9

     

    There's an ever-so-slight chance that Greg Monroe and the Detroit Pistons could ride a hot streak into the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference, but that would require a lot going in their favor. 

    Andre Drummond would have to look like the second coming of Shaquille O'Neal when he returns from injury, and Brandon Knight would need to remain on fire from downtown for the rest of the regular season, among other things. 

    It's not going to happen, but there's at least some sort of chance. That's more than we can say about the four teams in the East with zero percent chances to make the postseason. 

     

    Playoff Odds: One percent

Philadelphia 76ers

7 of 22

    Record: 23-36 (.390)

    Division Standings: No. 4 in Atlantic Division

    Conference Standings: No. 9 in Eastern Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 7.5

     

    Unless Andrew Bynum immediately returns from his season-long injury and plays at an All-Star level, the Philadelphia 76ers aren't going to be making the postseason. After falling to the Boston Celtics, the Sixers sit 7.5 games out of the postseason with only 23 contests left in the season.

    Moreover, they aren't going to get much better.

    Jrue Holiday has broken out in a big way this year, and he's carried the Sixers for prolonged stretches. Given his increased workload, it's going to be tough enough for him to maintain this level of play, let alone take it up another notch.  

     

    Playoff Odds: One percent

Toronto Raptors

8 of 22

    Record: 23-38 (.377)

    Division Standings: No. 5 in Atlantic Division

    Conference Standings: No. 10 in Eastern Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 8.5

     

    Ever since the Toronto Raptors acquired Rudy Gay, they've been significantly better. Well, at least before the rest of the league got the scouting report on the new-look squad and adjusted. 

    After the honeymoon period resulted in a 7-3 record, Toronto has endured a five-game losing streak. The Raptors need to turn that around quickly if they have any hope of making the playoffs.

    The optimism surrounding the Gay acquisition gives at least a bit of hope to the Canadian franchise, but let's be real here. The Eastern Conference playoff field is pretty much set in stone at this point.  

     

    Playoff Odds: Three percent

Milwaukee Bucks

9 of 22

    Record: 30-28 (.517)

    Division Standings: No. 3 in Central Division

    Conference Standings: No. 8 in Eastern Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 0

     

    Now that Brandon Jennings has resumed his quest to be considered an elite point guard by dropping 36 dimes in a two-game stretch, it's looking like even more of a sure thing that the Milwaukee Bucks will make it into the playoffs. 

    There's still a minute chance that a prolonged slump coupled with a ridiculously hot streak from the Toronto Raptors, Philadelphia 76ers or Detroit Pistons could push the Bucks into the lottery, but it's highly, highly unlikely. 

    The Bucks have a 7.5-game lead on the rest of the Eastern Conference, and they're probably not going to relinquish it. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 96 percent

Boston Celtics

10 of 22

    Record: 32-27 (.542)

    Division Standings: No. 3 in Atlantic Division

    Conference Standings: No. 7 in Eastern Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 0

     

    Every game that the Boston Celtics win further dispels the notion that this team can't win consistently without Rajon Rondo. 

    After taking down the Philadelphia 76ers, the C's pushed themselves nine games clear of the bottom seven teams in the Eastern Conference. That's a huge lead with only 23 games left to play, but I'm not quite ready to give them the 100 percent odds. 

    That said, I'd be left utterly dumbfounded if Boston was somehow left at home when postseason play began. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 99 percent

Eastern Conference Teams with 100 Percent Odds

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    There are six teams in the Eastern Conference who you can go ahead and pencil into your postseason brackets in ink. After all, each of them have 100 percent odds of making the playoffs at this point. 

    The Atlanta Hawks are at the bottom of the standings among those six teams, exactly 10 games ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers and the rest of the non-playoff teams. 

    Also joining the Hawks are the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers. 

    Of course, we can't forget about the Miami Heat, not that anyone actually would. LeBron James and Co. are actually pretty close to clinching a postseason spot already, in spite of the fact that they have 24 more games to play.

Sacramento Kings

12 of 22

    Record: 21-41 (.339)

    Division Standings: No. 5 in Pacific Division

    Conference Standings: No. 15 in Western Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 12

     

    Twelve games back of the Utah Jazz for the coveted eighth seed in the Western Conference, the Sacramento Kings might seriously begin to consider tanking in the near future. They'd never admit it, but what's the point of winning games now?

    Quite frankly, the Kings' best chance of making the playoffs involves DeMarcus Cousins, David Stern and some threats or bribes.

    Let's cross our fingers and hope that we don't have to experience that becoming a reality. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 0 percent

New Orleans Hornets

13 of 22

    Record: 21-40 (.344)

    Division Standings: No. 5 in Southwest Division

    Conference Standings: No. 14 in Western Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 11.5

     

    The New Orleans Hornets don't have any chance of surging up the rankings in the stacked Western Conference, but at least they have some hope for next year. 

    Eric Gordon's first season in the bayou was filled with disappointment, but he's still a great player worth building around. Greivis Vasquez also blossomed into an elite offensive point guard during the 2012-13 campaign, and both he and Anthony Davis, among others, are still developing. 

    There are plenty of positive signs for 2013-14, but not many pointing toward a postseason appearance in 21 more games. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 0 percent

Phoenix Suns

14 of 22

    Record: 21-39 (.350)

    Division Standings: No. 4 in Pacific Division

    Conference Standings: No. 13 in Western Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 11

     

    The Phoenix Suns are 11 games shy of being in the postseason picture, and they only have 22 games left on the schedule. 

    Something about those numbers steers me toward giving Goran Dragic and his teammates absolutely no chance of becoming a first-round sacrificial victim. 

    There are a few pieces to build around in the desert—namely Dragic, Marcin Gortat and the Morris twins—but quite a bit of rebuilding needs to be done if Phoenix hopes to return to the promised land anytime soon. One thing is for sure, though. 

    "Soon" will not be this season. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 0 percent

Minnesota Timberwolves

15 of 22

    Record: 20-37 (.351)

    Division Standings: No. 5 in Northwest Division

    Conference Standings: No. 12 in Western Conference 

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 10.5

     

    I feel for Minnesota Timberwolves fans. I really do. 

    This was supposed to be a season filled with success. A playoff spot was within the realm of possibilities, and there was some chatter about it even being a pretty solid seed. 

    Of course, that was before the 'Wolves were felled by injury after injury. Kevin Love went down multiple times. Ricky Rubio's knee hindered him even when he returned to action. Everyone else (and maybe even some of their friends and relatives) got hurt. 

    Now Minnesota sits far too many games back to even dream of making the postseason. 

    It's gotta sting. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 0 percent

Dallas Mavericks

16 of 22

    Record: 26-33 (.441)

    Division Standings: No. 4 in Southwest Division

    Conference Standings: No. 11 in Western Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 5.5

     

    The Dallas Mavericks have been given plenty of reasons for optimism throughout the 2012-13 campaign, but it's ultimately going to end in fruitless fashion. 

    O.J. Mayo's scorching start to the season kept spirits high, then the attention shifted to the return of Dirk Nowitzki, first to health and then to superstar form. But by the time everything came together, it was just too late. 

    Dallas sits 5.5 games shy of the No. 8 seed, but it's going to need to pass a few teams to get there. While there's an outside shot, it's much more likely that the Los Angeles Lakers or Portland Trail Blazers are the ones that make the leap into the picture. 

     

    Playoff Odds: Three percent

Portland Trail Blazers

17 of 22

    Record: 28-31 (.475)

    Division Standings: No. 4 in Northwest Division

    Conference Standings: No. 10 in Western Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 3.5

     

    As the season wears on, it's only going to get harder for the Portland Trail Blazers to hang in there. 

    Nicolas Batum, Damian Lillard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and J.J. Hickson are all playing solid basketball—better than solid in some cases—but there isn't much depth to be found here. During the stretch run, depth matters. 

    What happens if a starter gets injured? What if one of them slumps? 

    With 3.5 games to make up, the Blazers can't afford for anything negative to happen to the five aforementioned players. And as the toned-down version of the saying goes, stuff happens. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 14 percent

Los Angeles Lakers

18 of 22

    Record: 30-31 (.492)

    Division Standings: No. 3 in Pacific Division

    Conference Standings: No. 9 in Western Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 2.5

     

    The Los Angeles Lakers are undoubtedly trending upward, but even after going 6-4 over their last 10 games, they find themselves a few games back of the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference. 

    Take a second and think about how you'd react if you read that sentence as a prediction before the start of the 2012-13 campaign. You might have demanded my resignation. 

    No matter what style of basketball Kobe Bryant has played during the season, he's been outstanding. It's just up to his teammates to provide the necessary support, and that's something that hasn't happened quite as consistently as the L.A. faithful would hope. 

    The Lakers are going to continue to improve as the season progresses, but they might have left themselves too little time. There are only 21 games left for them during the regular season, and then that might be it. 

    Right now, there's a slightly better chance that they watch from home rather than participate in the postseason. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 45 percent

Utah Jazz

19 of 22

    Record: 32-28 (.533)

    Division Standings: No. 3 in Northwest Division

    Conference Standings: No. 8 in Western Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 0

     

    The Utah Jazz might not be the most glamorous team in the Association, but they've continued to labor away in the shadows throughout the season. Despite the unbelievable lack of attention they've received, the Jazz are in prime position to face off against either the San Antonio Spurs or Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs. 

    Unlike other teams competing for this spot, the Jazz have an identity. Plus, they have depth, featuring young players like Gordon Hayward just licking their chops while waiting for an opportunity to show off their skills. 

    Based on the way the Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers have been playing lately, these two teams are just about on the same level. With a 2.5-game head start, I'll take Utah more times than not. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 65 percent

Houston Rockets

20 of 22

    Record: 33-28 (.541)

    Division Standings: No. 3 in Southwest Division

    Conference Standings: No. 7 in Western Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 0

     

    The Houston Rockets are in a pretty good spot with 21 games remaining in their 2012-13 campaign. 

    Currently, James Harden's beard and the rest of the McDonald's employees—that's what I think every time I watch them—sit in seventh place in the Western Conference, three games ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers. 

    Much like the Lakers, though, Houston is a team full of new pieces, most of which are young and still improving. 

    While there's a chance that two of the four teams trying to pass the Rockets (Utah, L.A., Portland and Dallas) actually do so, there's a far better chance that they don't. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 75 percent

Golden State Warriors

21 of 22

    Record: 34-27 (.557)

    Division Standings: No. 2 in Pacific Division

    Conference Standings: No. 6 in Western Conference

    Games Back of a Playoff Spot: 0

     

    With a four-game and two-team cushion over the Los Angeles Lakers and the rest of the lottery-eligible teams in the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors seem to be a lock for the postseason. 

    However, their recent form has allowed a bit of doubt to creep back into consideration. 

    The Dubs have endured six-game and four-game losing streaks since the start of February, and they only broke free of the latter with a high-scoring victory at home against the struggling Toronto Raptors. 

    With Stephen Curry and David Lee both in the fold, it's highly unlikely that Golden State experiences a streak any longer than those two. Even if the Warriors do get into another funk, they have enough leeway to still sneak into the postseason. 

     

    Playoff Odds: 98 percent

Western Conference Teams with 100 Percent Odds

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    There are five truly elite teams in the Western Conference, and all five of them are complete and utter locks to advance to the playoffs, even with 20-plus games left on the schedule. 

    Of those five, the Denver Nuggets are the closest to slipping into the lottery. Ty Lawson and the rest of his teammates have all been trending up, and they currently sit 9.5 games ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers. Plus, there's a three-team buffer between them. 

    The Memphis Grizzlies are hanging out right around the Nuggets in the standings, and there's a bit of a jump up to the Los Angeles Clippers. Then come the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder, both of which could conveniently decide to skip all of their remaining road games and still make the playoffs. 

    These are the elite teams in the West, and you might as well accept that you'll be seeing them more than 82 times in 2012-13. 

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