The Five Starting Pitcher Fantasy Risks Worth Taking

They may not be your typical No. 1 aces, but the potential is there for a big fantasy season. Among this group is guys with unrealized potential and guys who are coming off injuries.

Also a few are pitching for new contracts and one is just trying to prove that last year was no fluke. While they won't command top dollar, they could return top dollar and in the fantasy world, the only thing that matters are the final results.

Felix Hernandez

Hard to believe "King Felix" is only 23-years old, but with a bevy of major league innings under his belt he will finally break through in 2009 in a big way.

In 2007, Felix started the year by striking out 12 against Oakland and followed it up with a one-hitter against Boston. Unfortunately an elbow strain in his third game set him back and he never really seemed to regain his rhythm.

In 2008, he started with a few great outings but a nasty ankle sprain derailed another promising season. After striking out six in eight innings to open the 09 season, Hernandez seems poised to finally break out.

With four quality pitches and the ability to induce ground balls and strikeouts (165 SO in 07, 175 so in 08), fantasy owners can bank on King Felix as their ace.

Gavin Floyd

Hard to believe a 17-game winner with a sub 4.00 ERA isn't in high demand but with Floyd that is exactly the case. The perceived lack of strikeouts—145 SO in 206.1 IP -- seems to drive down Floyd's value but a closer look can dispel the notion that he isn't a strikeout pitcher.

In 111.2 innings pitched in the first half of the season, Floyd registered just 75 strikeouts. However in 94.2 second half innings, he struck out 70 batters. Yes the 30 home runs is a little much, but you aren't investing in Floyd as your ace.

I've done several drafts and watch him go way too late or undrafted. So snatch up Floyd a round or two early and you won't be disappointed.

Erik Bedard

After racking up well over 200 strikeouts with Baltimore in 2007, many fantasy owners were debating the merits of taking Bedard over Johan Santana as the number one pitcher.

Of course, anyone who did that was certainly disappointed as Bedard managed only 81 innings and getting 72 strikeouts. While a shoulder issue was to blame, many baseball observers have questioned Bedard's desire and ability to pitch at less than 100 percent.

Let them complain while a savvy fantasy owner grabs Bedard in the middle rounds knowing it is a contract year and he has gotten off to good start by striking out eight Twins in just five innings in his '09 debut.

The 221 SO he collected in '07 is probably unattainable but he will return tremendous value.

Anthony Reyes

It appears Reyes will never be the strikeout machine some envisioned as he was coming up through the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system, but that doesn't mean he is devoid of fantasy value.

After winning Game One of the World Series a few years ago, Reyes quickly fell out of favor in St. Louis. Whether it was his rumored feud with pitching coach Dave Duncan or something else, Reyes was traded late last year to Cleveland for essentially nothing.

But once Reyes arrived in Cleveland he started pounding the strike zone with his sinker and he compiled a 1.83 ERA in 34.1 innings. Getting 150 strikeouts would be his most upside but 12-15 wins and a quality ERA/WHIP are easily attainable and for a guy sitting on waiver wires that is a great bargain.

Josh Johnson

As if his dazzling performance on Easter isn't enough indication, Josh Johnson is back from Tommy John surgery and ready to dominate.

After a late-season charge last year with an ERA of 3.61 in 14 starts, it is clear that Johnson has regained the velocity on his fastball and with a recharged Marlins offense, Johnson could be a great get as a No. 2 starter.