The 2013 offseason isn’t a good time to be in need of a starting quarterback. The Kansas City Chiefs have addressed that need, reportedly trading at least a second-round selection to San Francisco in exchange for Alex Smith (per Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer):
Jay Glazer @JayGlazer
Deal has been agreed upon between Chiefs and 49ers. Compensation unclear but I'm told again Chiefs have made a clear commitment to Smith.2/27/2013, 4:56:08 PM
Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network confirmed Glazer’s report and included information about the potential compensation for the trade:
Ian Rapoport @RapSheet
Source confirms @JayGlazer report of Alex Smith-Chiefs trade: "He's going to be a Chief." Source says it's for at least a 2nd rounder.2/27/2013, 5:03:31 PM
According to Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News, the deal does include the Chiefs’ 2013 second-round pick, as well as a conditional 2014 second-round pick.
What this all means for the Chiefs—and draft prognosticators—is that Geno Smith is no longer in the discussion as the first overall pick in April. While Smith was one of several possibilities, it’s unlikely Andy Reid will even consider him now, instead looking to other areas of need.
Pre-draft trades often shake up the entire landscape of the selection process, especially if that trade affects a team at the top of the draft order. Between the NFL Scouting Combine and the reported trade between Kansas City and San Francisco, mock drafts are going to start looking a whole lot different going forward.
Because the trade will also likely include a transfer of a pick at the top of the second round, the end of the first round and beginning of the second will be altered as well. The 49ers now have an extra pick with which to shore up some areas of need.
Let’s take a look at the first two rounds of the draft, projecting where players might land on draft day.
1. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
It’s nearly official at this point. The Chiefs needed a quarterback, but they probably won’t even think about adding another until at least the middle rounds with Smith now at the helm.
Joeckel’s combine performance was just average, but he’s not a workout warrior. He is the best player in this draft, despite his pedestrian numbers in Indianapolis.
Branden Albert may walk in free agency, but the Chiefs would be wise to select Joeckel, regardless of where Albert ends up. Quarterback needs can be addressed in the future. Taking advantage of value here is the right decision.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
Not much changes for the Jaguars here, except that trades are now a real possibility. Oakland has been rumored to have interest in Geno Smith, and if a team is desperate to jump the Raiders to select him, Jacksonville could walk away with a terrific trade package in return.
If that scenario doesn’t play out, Jacksonville still has the option to select Smith, but a pass-rushing defensive end is more likely here. Werner is one of the best defenders in this draft class, and he fills an immediate need for GM David Caldwell and the Jaguars.
3. Oakland Raiders: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Bleacher Report NFL draft lead writer Matt Miller reported during the Senior Bowl that the Raiders were interested in Geno Smith. As long as a trade doesn’t happen in advance, they have a pretty good shot at landing him.
Carson Palmer is nearing the end of his career, and Terrelle Pryor wasn’t given much of a chance last season. Smith could present a new direction for GM Reggie McKenzie and his Raiders.
4. Philadelphia Eagles: Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida
With Star Lotulelei’s recent health concerns, Floyd has a chance to jump the Utah tackle on some draft boards and solidify a spot as the top defensive tackle selected in April.
Philadelphia recently released Cullen Jenkins and finding a dominant interior lineman to replace him should be a priority. Floyd isn’t a prototypical 3-4 defensive tackle, but he has the size, athleticism and first-step quickness to be a versatile asset all over Philadelphia’s defensive line.
5. Detroit Lions: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Milliner put on a show at the combine, solidifying his position as the top cornerback in this draft class. Detroit has several needs, and almost all of them are on the defensive side of the ball.
The Lions could go with a defensive end or linebacker here, but Milliner presents GM Martin Mayhew with an opportunity to select a lockdown corner who can shore up a big hole in the Lions’ secondary.
6. Cleveland Browns: Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon
Despite a torn labrum in Jordan’s shoulder, he still has a good chance at being one of the first six players taken on draft day. With a tall, athletic frame and a lot of schematic versatility, he would be a terrific fit at the weakside linebacker position in Cleveland’s new 3-4 front.
7. Arizona Cardinals: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
Fisher has risen up the draft boards this offseason, starting with a strong Senior Bowl showing. He looked terrific at the combine, and there’s little doubt he will be one of the first two offensive linemen selected in April.
The Cardinals had one of the worst pass-protection units in the league in 2012. Shoring up their offensive line should be priority No. 1 in Round 1.
8. Buffalo Bills: Matt Barkley, QB, USC
Barkley didn’t throw at the combine, but he hopes to at his pro day on March 27. With no quarterback earning the clear-cut No. 2 spot at the position, Barkley has a chance to be a Top 10 selection in April.
New head coach Doug Marrone needs a need quarterback going forward. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t the answer, and the Bills will likely look to address that need in the first two rounds.
9. New York Jets: Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU
Ansah is a freakish athlete. Despite being very raw (having played just three years of college football), there will certainly be a place for him in New York’s defense.
The Jets employ a lot of exotic looks on defense, and they need a pass-rusher in the worst way. With Jordan already off the board, Ansah is their best option at No. 9.
10. Tennessee Titans: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
A heart condition forced Lotulelei to miss the combine drills, causing a lot of concern for his health and his draft stock.
Bleacher Report’s Dave Seibert did a detailed report on Lotulelei’s condition, but nothing is certain yet. Still, there’s a good chance it will be enough to scare off some teams, but if the condition isn’t as serious as previously thought, he probably won’t make it past the Titans at pick No. 10.
11. San Diego Chargers: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma
The Chargers are still looking for a quality replacement for Marcus McNeill, and Johnson is a terrific option.
A former quarterback, tight end and defensive end, Johnson has elite quickness and athleticism at the left tackle position. He needs to add some bulk to his frame, but he has the potential to be a terrific left tackle at the NFL level.
12. Miami Dolphins: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
The Dolphins will be looking for a wide receiver this offseason. Regardless of what they do in free agency, the value here is too good to pass up.
Patterson has an incredibly high ceiling. He’s still an unpolished route runner, but Patterson’s physical abilities are unmatched by any receiver in this draft class. He’ll give the Dolphins a true No. 1 option at the X-receiver position.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
With Milliner already off the board, Rhodes becomes a good possibility at No. 13.
The Bucs need to find a replacement for Aqib Talib, especially after finishing dead last in pass defense in 2012. They may also consider safety Kenny Vaccaro here, but cornerback is a more glaring need at this point.
14. Carolina Panthers: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
The Panthers have very few holes to fill, but defensive tackle is certainly a big need.
Richardson isn’t a huge, run-stuffing interior lineman, but he has the quickness to be a disruptive force in both run defense and pass-rushing. He is Carolina’s best option with this selection.
15. New Orleans Saints: Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
Mingo could go anywhere from No. 5 to No. 25 in this draft. He has the physical tools to be an exceptional edge-rusher, but he’s still very raw.
The Saints haven’t fielded a good pass rush in recent years. After switching to a 3-4, finding a quality pass-rusher will be a big concern for the Saints this offseason, and Mingo offers a lot of value in the middle of the first round.
16. St. Louis Rams: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
The Rams have focused heavily on defense in recent drafts, but with two more selections in the first two rounds, they can afford to select another defender with this pick.
St. Louis needs to address the safety position, and Vaccaro is the best in this class. He has the speed, athleticism and tough mentality to be a versatile defender against both the pass and the run.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
Kevin Colbert expects to shake things up this offseason. With an 8-8 finish in 2012, the Steelers need to do something to turn things around.
Casey Hampton is nearing the end of his career, and Ziggy Hood hasn’t exactly flourished when given the opportunity. Adding a defensive lineman with Hankins’ size and versatility would afford Pittsburgh the flexibility to use him in various positions along the defensive line, shoring up a unit that was uncharacteristically weak in 2012.
18. Dallas Cowboys: Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama
Dallas will be switching to a Tampa-2 defense with Monte Kiffin in town this season. Finding the right defensive pieces to facilitate the switch will be important, but the Cowboys also need to address their offensive line.
Dallas was unable to effectively run the ball in 2012, and Tony Romo was constantly bothered by A-gap pressure. Warmack is one of the best offensive linemen in this draft class, and he would go a long way toward solving both of those problems.
19. New York Giants: Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
Moore’s combine performance will likely cause him to slide down a lot of draft boards in the coming months. He still has a lot of talent, though, and the Giants would be happy to land him with the 19th pick.
Moore isn’t all that athletic, meaning some 3-4 teams won’t want to use him in space. With the Giants in need of a pass-rushing defensive end to play opposite Jason Pierre-Paul, Moore becomes their best option here.
20. Chicago Bears: D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
Chicago’s pass-protection unit was one of the worst in the NFL last season. Shoring up the offensive line should be a top priority.
Fluker isn’t a left-side blocker, but he has the ability to be a good right tackle at the next level. He is a road-grader in the running game and offers the Bears a serviceable pass-blocking option on the right side.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
Ogletree’s recent DUI arrest will throw up a red flag for some teams, but he has the talent to be a top pick in April. There’s a good chance he doesn’t fall past the Bengals at No. 21.
Rey Maualuga may not be back with the team in 2013, and finding a quality linebacker to replace him is a good possibility for the Bengals in the first two rounds.
22. St. Louis Rams (from Washington): Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
Offensive tackle and safety are arguably St. Louis’ two biggest needs this offseason. There aren’t any top-tier tackles left on the board, but Watson has been gaining momentum in the pre-draft process.
Wide receiver will also be an option here, but the immense depth at the position means the Rams can wait until the second or third round to find a quality wideout to pair with Danny Amendola.
23. Minnesota Vikings: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
Percy Harvin needs some help. He’s Minnesota’s best receiving threat, but opposing defenses were able to pay him extra attention with no other quality options on the roster.
Hopkins had an ultra-productive 2012 season with Clemson, and he’s one of the best receivers in this draft class. Look for the Vikings to give him serious consideration with the 23rd pick.
24. Indianapolis Colts: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Jones’ spinal stenosis condition will likely cause him to slip down the draft board in April. Few teams are willing to use a high selection on a player who might not last very long in the NFL.
As Matt Miller reported during the combine, several teams may have removed Jones from their draft boards:
Matt Miller @nfldraftscout
Was told tonight that at least 10 teams have removed Jarvis Jones from their draft board due to spinal issue.2/24/2013, 3:59:31 AM
Still, Jones has the pure talent to be a Top 5 selection this year. Indianapolis desperately needs playmakers on defense, especially after switching to a 3-4 last season. The Colts need to find some pieces to make the new scheme work, and Jones is the best option.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State
Carradine tore his ACL in 2012, but he could be ready to play when the NFL season resumes. Seattle doesn’t have many holes to fill, and Carradine presents tremendous value for the Seahawks here.
Defensive end Chris Clemons tore his ACL in the playoffs against Washington, and Seattle may be wary of using a first-round pick on a defensive end coming off the same injury. However, Carradine is a tremendous player, and if he is ready to play when the season begins, he would be a great fit in Seattle.
26. Green Bay Packers: Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina
If Cooper falls this far, Green Bay has an obvious choice here. He is one of the most talented—and versatile—offensive linemen in this draft class.
Green Bay needs to shore up its offensive line, and adding an interior lineman who can line up at center or either guard position would do wonders for the Packers’ running game and interior pass protection.
27. Houston Texans: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
With Austin’s combine performance last weekend, there’s a chance he doesn’t make it to pick No. 27. If he does, Houston will have a hard time passing on him.
The Texans don’t have a quality receiving option to pair with Andre Johnson. Austin is electric with the ball in his hands, and he has the potential to be a premier slot receiver in the NFL.
28. Denver Broncos: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
Champ Bailey showed his age in the Broncos’ divisional round game against the Ravens. Denver needs to start looking for a replacement at the cornerback position.
Trufant has been a riser this offseason, and with a good Senior Bowl performance and a quality showing at the combine, he looks to be the third cornerback taken in the draft.
29. New England Patriots: Matt Elam, S, Florida
New England could go several directions with this pick, but Elam is the best defensive back still on the board.
Aqib Talib is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason. Even if he re-signs, the Patriots still need to shore up a pass-defense unit that was exploited often in 2012. Adding Elam would allow the Patriots to move Devin McCourty from safety back to his natural cornerback position as well.
30. Atlanta Falcons: Alex Okafor, DE, Texas
Expect Atlanta to focus heavily on shoring up its defensive line this offseason. The Falcons’ run and pass-rushing defense needs to improve.
Okafor can do both. He’s a terrific edge-rusher who can slide inside in obvious passing situations, and he also provides another quality run-stopping presence to play opposite John Abraham.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
With the 49ers picking up an extra pick from the Chiefs, they can afford to address a couple positions in the late-first and early-second rounds. Defensive end, defensive tackle and cornerback will all be possibilities here.
Williams has the potential to be a dominant defender at either defensive end or defensive tackle in San Francisco’s 3-4 front. The 49ers can look to address other needs with their selection in the early-second round.
32. Baltimore Ravens: John Jenkins, DT, Georgia
Like San Francisco, the Ravens have several needs to fill here, and almost all of them are on the defensive side of the ball. Kevin Minter, Arthur Brown and Manti Te’o are all still available, but finding a hefty nose tackle should also be a serious consideration. Jenkins fits the bill.
33. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon State
The Jaguars already addressed the defensive end position, and cornerback should be next on the list.
34. San Francisco 49ers (from Kansas City): Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State
With Round 2 of the draft picking up the day following Round 1, teams picking at the top of the round are in excellent position. Those teams have an extra day to decide what they want to do with their early-round selection.
There won’t be much of a choice here for San Francisco, especially if the 49ers don’t take a cornerback in the first round. This pick will come down to deciding which cornerback they want.
35. Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas Thomas, OT, Tennessee
The Eagles’ offensive line wasn’t a solid unit in 2012, and adding some early-round talent at the offensive tackle will go a long way toward shoring up its pass-blocking in 2013.
36. Detroit Lions: Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU
Character concerns will likely force Montgomery to drop in the draft. Martin Mayhew has never been one to shy away from those issues, though, and the Lions desperately need a pass-rushing presence at the defensive end position.
37. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International
If the Bengals don’t address their need at safety in the first round, look for them to do so in the second. Cyprien is one of the top safeties in this draft class.
38. Arizona Cardinals: Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
With Eric Fisher already donning a Cardinals’ jersey, Arizona can make a luxury pick here in the second. Kevin Kolb may get another chance to start this season, but expect the Cardinals to have a backup plan in place.
39. New York Jets: Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama
If Lacy is still available in the bottom of the first round, expect a team to trade up to take him. As it stands, the Jets could certainly use the help at running back, and Lacy is the best in this draft.
40. Tennessee Titans: Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky
If Lotulelei weren’t available at pick No. 10, guard Chance Warmack may have been the selection. Tennessee still needs to shore up its interior run-blocking, though, and Warford is a road-grader.
41. Buffalo Bills: Arthur Brown, ILB, Kansas State
After releasing Nick Barnett, Buffalo needs to find a suitable replacement at linebacker. Brown may slide down the board a bit, but he’d be a good choice for the Bills in the second round.
42. Miami Dolphins: Kawann Short, DT, Purdue
With the wide receiver position looking better by the minute, Miami can look to address some needs on the defensive line. Short will go a long way toward strengthening Miami’s interior defensive line.
43. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Eric Reid, S, LSU
Tampa Bay fielded the No. 32 pass defense in the league in 2012. Even after selecting Xavier Rhodes in the first round, taking a safety in the second to play next to Mark Barron wouldn’t be a bad idea.
44. Carolina Panthers: Keenan Allen, WR, California
Cam Newton needs another target in the passing game. Steve Smith is nearing the end of his career, and Allen has the potential to be a quality replacement for the near future.
45. San Diego Chargers: Datone Jones, DE, UCLA
San Diego doesn’t have a ton of holes to fill, so adding depth at the defensive end position could be a possibility in the second round. As 3-4 ends go, Jones is one of the best in this class.
46. St. Louis Rams: Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee
The Rams finally get their receiver here, and Hunter is a good one. He has the size and speed to be a terrific option going forward. He just needs a little polish.
47. Dallas Cowboys: Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
This is where the Cowboys finally start addressing positions to make the transition to a 4-3 a little smoother. Anthony Spencer will be a free agent, and Lemonier would be a nice fit at the weakside defense end position.
48. Pittsburgh Steelers: Manti Te’o, ILB, Notre Dame
There’s little chance a team doesn’t trade up for Te’o if he is still available here, but it’s impossible to predict second-round trades. As it stands, Te’o would be an excellent option for the Steelers as they attempt to rejuvenate their aging defense.
49. New York Giants: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
New York needs another target for Eli Manning in the passing game. A former receiver, Eifert can be a versatile slot receiver and pass-catching tight end at the next level.
50. Chicago Bears: Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU
Minter didn’t run well at the combine, and his stock will probably take a hit as a result. Chicago needs an inside linebacker, though, and Minter presents a ton of value in the second round.
51. Washington Redskins: Phillip Thomas, S, Fresno State
Washington’s biggest need is at the safety position. The Redskins didn’t have a first-round pick this year, but they’ll take advantage of their second-round selection by taking a quality safety in Thomas.
52. Minnesota Vikings: Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern State
If the Vikings don’t add a defensive tackle in the first round, look for them to do so in the second. Williams isn’t a big name right now, but he has a ton of potential.
53. Cincinnati Bengals: Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
The Bengals don’t need a defensive end all that badly, but there’s no guarantee Michael Johnson re-signs this offseason. Hunt projects well to a 3-4, but he has the size and physical ability to play just about anywhere in a 4-3.
54. Miami Dolphins: David Amerson, CB, North Carolina State
Miami is one of several teams in need of some help at cornerback. It isn’t the Dolphins' most glaring need, though, and they can wait to address the position in the late-second.
55. Green Bay Packers: Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
Ertz didn’t impress at the combine, but he’s still one of the best tight ends in this draft class. Jermichael Finley hasn’t panned out, and finding a quality replacement for him would be a good choice for the Packers in the second round.
56. Seattle Seahawks: Robert Woods, WR, USC
Russell Wilson had a fantastic 2012 season, but he could use another dynamic pass-catcher going forward. Woods has the talent to be a first-round pick, but depth at the position may cause him to slide down the board a little bit in April.
57. Houston Texans: D.J. Swearinger, S, South Carolina
Houston already got its electric offensive weapon in the first round. The Texans can now look to address needs at the safety position by adding Swearinger here.
58. Denver Broncos: Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
If Williams falls this far, this pick is a no-brainer for the Broncos. They need another big body anchoring the defensive line, and Williams has the talent to be a solid tackle in the NFL.
59. New England Patriots: Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor
Don’t put anything past Bill Belichick. Wide receiver isn’t a massive concern, but the value here is too good to pass on. The Patriots were able to address needs in the secondary with their first pick, and Williams becomes an excellent value pick here in the second.
60. Atlanta Falcons: Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina
If Lattimore can be ready to go for the start of the 2013 season, he gives the Falcons a terrific option to replace the aging Michael Turner. Lattimore is one of the best backs in this class. Don’t expect him to fall much further than this in April.
61. San Francisco 49ers: Marquise Goodwin, WR, Texas
The Alex Smith trade will have a domino effect on San Francisco’s draft-day choices. The 49ers already got a cornerback and defensive lineman with their first two picks, and they can now look to add another dynamic offensive weapon at the end of the second round.
Goodwin ran a 4.27 40-yard dash at the combine, proving he has the speed to be an electric deep threat in the NFL. San Francisco doesn’t have that element, and Goodwin could be a major contributor for the 49ers very early in his career.
62. Baltimore Ravens: Barrett Jones, C, Alabama
With Matt Birk retiring this offseason, Baltimore needs to strengthen its interior offensive line. Jones can play the left guard or center positions, giving the Ravens plenty of options in the middle of their offensive line.
*Note: Cleveland (Round 2, pick seven) and New Orleans (Round 2, pick 14) forfeited their 2013 second-round selections.
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