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There is absolutely no deterrent to stop diving.
This may be a generalization but most diving comes from attacking players, who don’t put in as many challenges in as defensive minded players.
So picture this, you’re a striker, it’s 0-0 with 10 minutes to go, you haven’t picked up a yellow card today.
In fact it’s February and you’ve only picked up one yellow card all season. So if you got a yellow card now, you would be nowhere near a suspension.
You’re running into the box, you don’t have many options open and you haven’t got a clear shot of goal. A defender is just about to put a tackle in.
In a situation like this, it’s actually more sensible to dive—because the deterrent of being caught, one yellow card and no further action, is absolutely no deterrent at all.
But the reward of getting your team a penalty and maybe even the three points completely outweighs that tiny risk.
The game has got to the point where it's tantamount to encouraging diving.
If football authorities are that determined to stop diving, a panel could meet after the game (like they do for red car appeals or dubious own goals), judge whether a player has dived or not then, if it’s adjudged he has, give him a ban.
This would take the pressure of the referee to get the decision right and actually provide a course of action that would make players think again about diving.