College Basketball: Schmolik 64 Update (2/22/13)

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College Basketball: Schmolik 64 Update (2/22/13)
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Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the second update for the 2013 Schmolik 64. At the end of the regular season, I will pick a complete NCAA bracket with the teams I think belong in the NCAA field and where they should be seeded. Up to then, there will be updates to see where your team stands if the season ended today (records as of Thursday, Feb. 21, 2012).

Until Championship Week, I will only seed the top 12 seeds. The bottom four seeds are usually reserved for one-bid conferences, in which usually only the conference champion goes from those conferences. Similar to last year, I will reserve two No. 12 seed lines for the "First Four."

You should interpret these as being among the last teams to get into the field (although there could be exceptions based upon bracketing rules, which prevent the actual last four from making the field).

I know there are 68 teams now, but if I had my way there would still be just 64 teams. When I started the Schmolik 64, there were 64 teams, and that is why I still call it the "Schmolik 64."

Here's the bracket update for Feb. 22, 2012. After the list, I will give some reasons why certain teams were chosen or not chosen and why they were seeded where they were.

Dates:

Opening Weekend: Thur/Sat March 21-23, Fri/Sun March 22-24

Regionals: Thur/Sat March 28-30, Fri/Sun March 29-31

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN - Fri/Sun)

Do I have the right four No. 1 seeds?

Submit Vote vote to see results

Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun

(1) Indiana (24-3) vs. (16)

(8) St. Louis (20-5) vs. (9) California (17-9)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat 

(5) Colorado State (19-5) vs. (12) First Four Game A Winner

(4) Marquette (21-6) vs. (13)

Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun

(6) NC State (19-7) vs. (11) Temple (18-8)

(3) Georgetown (20-4) vs. (14)

Lexington, KY - Thur/Sat 

(7) Minnesota (18-9) vs. (10) Belmont (19-6)

(2) Florida (21-4) vs. (15)

Which of my last four least belongs in the tournament?

Submit Vote vote to see results

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles, CA - Thur/Sat)

Auburn Hills, MI - Thur/Sat

(1) Michigan State (21-5)  vs. (16)

(8) North Carolina (17-8) vs. (9) Wichita State (23-5) 

Austin, TX - Fri/Sun

(5) Kansas State (20-5)  vs. (12) Villanova (16-10)

(4) New Mexico (22-4) vs. (13)

Salt Lake City, Utah - Thur/Sat

(6) Ohio State (19-7) vs. (11) Cincinnati (19-8) 

(3) Arizona (22-4) vs. (14)

Salt Lake City, Utah - Thur/Sat

(7) San Diego State (17-7) vs. (10) Iowa State (18-8)

(2) Gonzaga (25-2) vs. (15)

EAST REGIONAL (Washington, DC- Thur/Sat)

Lexington, KY - Thur/Sat 

(1) Miami  (22-3) vs. (16)

(8) Notre Dame (21-6) vs. (9) Colorado (18-8)

Austin, TX - Fri/Sun

(5) Oklahoma State (19-6) vs. (12) First Four Game B Winner

(4) Butler (21-5) vs. (13)

Kansas City, MO - Fri/Sun

(6) Oklahoma (17-8) vs. (11) Creighton (22-6)

(3) Louisville (21-5) vs. (14)

Auburn Hills, MI - Thur/Sat

(7) Memphis (23-3) vs. (10) Oregon (21-6) 

(2) Michigan (21-4)  vs. (15)

SOUTH REGIONAL (Arlington, TX - Fri/Sun)

Philadelphia, PA - Fri/Sun

(1) Duke (23-3) vs. (16)

(8) Pittsburgh (20-7) vs. (9) Missouri (19-7)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat

(5) UNLV (19-7) vs. (12) La Salle (18-7)

(4) Wisconsin (19-8)  vs. (13)

Kansas City, MO - Fri/Sun

(6) Illinois (19-8) vs. (11) Middle Tennessee State (24-4) 

(3) Kansas (22-4) vs. (14)

Philadelphia, PA - Fri/Sun

(7) VCU (21-6)  vs. (10) UCLA (19-7)

(2) Syracuse (22-4)  vs. (15)

Final Four: Midwest vs, West, East vs. South

First Four (Dayton, OH):

Game A: Tue. March 19: Southern Miss (19-6) vs. Charlotte (18-7) , Winner is East #12 seed, plays Colorado State in San Jose. 

Game B: Wed. March 20: Boise State (15-8) vs. St. Mary's (22-5)  - Winner is Midwest #12 seed, plays Oklahoma State in Austin.

By conference:

Big East (8)

Big Ten (7)

A-10 (6)

Big 12 (5)

MWC (5)

Pac-12 (5)

ACC (4)

SEC (2)

MVC (2)

C-USA (2) 

WCC (2) 

OVC, Sun Belt (1 each)

Remaining Automatics: 18

Party Crashers/Additional At Large: 0

Analysis:

RPI Data courtesy of CBS Sports.com as of February 22, 2013.

Indiana and Miami were to me easy choices for No. 1 seeds.

Indiana's win at Michigan State gave them a one-game lead in the Big Ten (a conference with six teams in the RPI Top 25 and Illinois at No. 32). The Hoosiers have now swept the second-place Spartans this season.

Miami is unbeaten in the ACC, the only team in a BCS conference to have not suffered a conference loss.

Duke received the third No. 1 seed by being ranked No. 1 in the RPI. The Blue Devils have won four games against the RPI Top 25 as well as No. 26 ranked North Carolina.

Rounding out the No. 1 seeds is Michigan State. They have five wins against the RPI Top 25. Among those five wins was a neutral site win over No. 5 ranked Kansas.

Other candidates for No. 1 seeds were Florida and Gonzaga. Florida has only won three games vs. the RPI Top 25 (one was Middle Tennessee State), and Gonzaga has only two wins vs the Top 25. Both play in significantly weaker conferences than the Big Ten.

The Big Ten has three of the top eight teams in the Schmolik 64 (Michigan is a No. 2 seed). The Big East has its three conference leaders seeded No. 3 or above (Syracuse is a No. 2 seed and Georgetown and Louisville are both No. 3 seeds).

Another Big Ten team, Illinois, is on a five-game winning streak (including a win over AP/USA Today No. 1 ranked Indiana). Illinois has five Top 25 wins, which ties for second overall (Indiana has six), and they have played 10 games vs. Top 25 RPI teams, the most in the country.

While the additions of Butler and Virginia Commonwealth have been the talk of the Atlantic 10, St. Louis has quietly been building its resume. In addition to wins over Butler and VCU, they have a non-conference win over New Mexico, ranked No. 3 in the RPI.

Another hot team now is California (Berkeley) from the Pac-12. They have a four-game winning streak which includes wins at the two teams tied for the conference lead (Arizona and Oregon, which the Golden Bears swept).

This time, I went mostly with the RPI to choose at-large teams. The highest-ranked team to not make it in was No. 49 Kentucky. The last four in were Southern Mississippi (No. 35), Boise State (No. 41 with a win over No. 17 UNLV), St. Mary's (No. 48) and Charlotte (No. 54, with a win at Butler).

St. Mary's and Southern Mississippi are in mainly on their RPI/records alone. Southern Mississippi's best win is over No. 88 ranked Denver. St. Mary's has a great record, but their best wins are two over BYU. The Gaels have played Gonzaga twice and lost. St. Mary's has not played any team in the RPI Top 50 out of conference. If teams below them start gaining quality wins, Southern Mississippi and St. Mary's could see themselves on the other side of the fence come Selection Sunday.

The SEC has only two teams right now. Missouri has won just one road game in a rather weak SEC (only one team in the RPI Top 30 and three in the RPI Top 50). The third team in my SEC pecking order right now is Alabama. They are second in the SEC and have a win over Kentucky, another bubble team. They also have a win over fellow bubble team Villanova.

The problem is their only RPI Top 50 win is Kentucky. They also have four losses vs. teams ranked outside of the Top 100 including three losses at home and a road loss at Auburn, who is ranked No. 216. If the season ended today, the SEC would probably have many high seeds in the NIT Tournament (Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee).

The ACC has three teams that are close but not in the tournament. Maryland had a huge win over No. 1 RPI ranked Duke, but then lost to a Boston College team outside the Top 100. They also lost a home game to fellow bubble teams Virginia and were swept by another fellow bubble team in Florida State.

Compare my bracket to CBS Sports Bracketology and many others at Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix.

Remember to comment! If you think a team or teams that are out should be in or teams are in should be out, let me hear from you!

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