(Photo by Steve Green/Pool-Getty Images)
This is a column that I wrote for The Daily Illini (Apr. 7, '09). Feel free to check out the full column and our newly redesigned Web site at dailyillini.com.
Click here to read my American League preview.
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Last week, I put out my American League predictions for your reading pleasure and this week, as promised, I’ll go through the National League hopefuls and pick my winners.
To recap last week, I picked Oakland, Detroit and Boston to win their respective divisions and the Yankees to take the wild card. Those predictions were largely based on anecdotal evidence and a small bit of statistical analysis that I did myself.
Baseball Prospectus came out with its Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) projections—predictive analysis based on various statistical factors —this week and, according to them, my predictions were hit and miss.
They did have Oakland taking the AL West by three games and both the Yankees and Red Sox in the playoffs, but they had the Yankees taking the division and Cleveland capturing the AL Central by a handful of games.
Most people who aren’t big into sabermetrics don’t really think much of projections like these, but they have proven to be fairly accurate over the years. PECOTA has picked the vast majority of division winners over the past few seasons, and I’d tend to think that it’ll continue to do so because it’s based on sound analysis, and the system is always tweaked to improve the projections.
That said, I’m going to give you guys the PECOTA projections for the NL and tell you which findings surprised me and which did not.
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
Of course, this one doesn’t surprise me. I would have picked the Cubs in this spot also, but mainly because the Central Division is severely lacking in competition this season.
PECOTA has the Cubs regressing slightly from last season but still winning the most games in the NL (95), scoring the most runs (862) and having the highest team on-base percentage (.347).
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