This is a column that I wrote for The Daily Illini (Apr. 7, '09). Feel free to check out the full column and our newly redesigned Web site at dailyillini.com.

Click here to read my American League preview.

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Last week, I put out my American League predictions for your reading pleasure and this week, as promised, I’ll go through the National League hopefuls and pick my winners.

To recap last week, I picked Oakland, Detroit and Boston to win their respective divisions and the Yankees to take the wild card. Those predictions were largely based on anecdotal evidence and a small bit of statistical analysis that I did myself.

Baseball Prospectus came out with its Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) projections—predictive analysis based on various statistical factors —this week and, according to them, my predictions were hit and miss.

They did have Oakland taking the AL West by three games and both the Yankees and Red Sox in the playoffs, but they had the Yankees taking the division and Cleveland capturing the AL Central by a handful of games.

Most people who aren’t big into sabermetrics don’t really think much of projections like these, but they have proven to be fairly accurate over the years. PECOTA has picked the vast majority of division winners over the past few seasons, and I’d tend to think that it’ll continue to do so because it’s based on sound analysis, and the system is always tweaked to improve the projections.

That said, I’m going to give you guys the PECOTA projections for the NL and tell you which findings surprised me and which did not.

NL Central: Chicago Cubs

Of course, this one doesn’t surprise me. I would have picked the Cubs in this spot also, but mainly because the Central Division is severely lacking in competition this season.

PECOTA has the Cubs regressing slightly from last season but still winning the most games in the NL (95), scoring the most runs (862) and having the highest team on-base percentage (.347).

The Cubs did, in my opinion, get a little worse over the offseason but not enough to give them trouble in their bid to reach the postseason for a third straight year.

The Brewers are slated to finish second again this season on the strength of their offense, but are hurt greatly by the subtraction of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets from their rotation.

St. Louis is getting a big bump from last year, but PECOTA predicts a slightly anemic offense in comparison to the offensive powerhouse Cubs.

According to PECOTA, Chicago will win the division by a double-digit margin of games and wrap up the division early.

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers would, again, be my pick to take this division, and PECOTA seems to think the same thing. It’s projecting a much closer race than that of the NL Central, but the Dodgers pitching puts them over the top.

The Dodgers are projected to allow the least runs in the league (710), score the third most runs (820) and tie for the third-best on-base percentage (.342). These are very good numbers for a team that didn’t score a lot of runs in the first half of 2008.

PECOTA picks the Diamondbacks to finish second in the NL West and take the league’s wild card. While I also see them finishing second in the division by a wide margin over Colorado and San Diego, I think the wild card will almost certainly come out of the NL East in ’09.

NL East: New York Mets

Both PECOTA and I have the Mets taking the NL East crown this season. This team should have won its division in each of the past two seasons but suffered terrible collapses because of an utterly awful bullpen.

This area has been much improved for the ’09 campaign with the additions of closer Francisco Rodriguez and setup man J.J. Putz. Both of these pitchers had tremendous 2008 campaigns, and the Mets paid a premium to improve their biggest weakness from a year ago.

PECOTA has both the Braves and Phillies slated to win 87 games, and I also think that both will be that good. I’m wavering between the two of them in my choice for the NL Wild Card, but in the end, I think the Braves’ pitching will help them edge out the Phillies in the end.

Arizona may be the right choice here, as PECOTA predicted, but I think the Diamondbacks’ young offense will have just enough trouble to give Atlanta the opening to steal the last playoff spot in the NL.

As I always say, predictions often mean little once the season starts, as injuries or trades change the makeup of any given team. That said, it is always best to make predictions with the help of hard statistical analysis, and systems like PECOTA can help you do just that.

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