Now that I've completed all of my exhausting 30 team previews for the upcoming 2008 season, I figure I might as well put my predictions out there. It's taken me about a month and a half, but I think I finally have a handle on what I think will happen this year. It shoud be a very exciting year across Major League Baseball, so wihtout further ado, here are my projections:
NL East
NL Central
NL West
NLDS:
Diamondbacks over Mets in 5
Cubs over Dodgers in 4
NLCS:
Diamondbacks over Cubs in 6
AL East
AL Central
AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 90-72
ALDS:
Red Sox over Angels in 4
Indians over Mariners in 5
ALCS:
Indians over Red Sox in 6
World Series:
Indians over Diamondbacks in seven
So there you have it. One note: I realize my AL West prediction was a total cop-out, but I seriously cannot pick between the Mariners and the Angels. Both teams have their strong points and their weak points, and in the end I think it'll balance out to them both winning 90 games.
Now, for some award predictions:
NL MVP: Jose Reyes, New York Mets
Reyes will be the most important part of this Mets offense, jumpstarting it when they need it the most. He'll follow in the footsteps of Jimmy Rollins, last year's NL MVP, in saying that his team is the team to beat then backing it up with the performance on the field.
NL Cy Young: Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks
The move from the AL, where Haren was already dominant, to the NL could mean 20 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA for Haren, who will team with Brandon Webb to give Arizona the most dominant 1-2 punch in the majors.
NL Manager of the Year: Joe Torre, Los Angeles Dodgers
Torre will finally get this team over the top and into the playoffs for the first time since 2004. The Dodgers have a whole lot of potential, and that potential will be realized under Torre.
NL Rookie of the Year: Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds
It's only a matter of time before Bruce gets the call to patrol center in Cincinnati. He has all the skills to be a star in this game, and he'll begin to show them as soon as he gets called up.
AL MVP: Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians
Hafner had a down year last year, only hitting 24 home runs. A revitalized Hafner will hit at least 40 this year and will lead the Indians all the way to a World Series title.
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
With Erik Bedard now the ace of the Seattle staff, Hernandez finally can get comfortable without the pressure of carrying a pitching staff on his back. Expect Hernandez to take back his throne as "King Felix" and dominate hitters en route to the Cy Young and a Wild Card berth for the Mariners.
AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are becoming a trendy pick to have success this year, and while they'll still finish behind the major powers of the division, Maddon will guide this team to the most wins in franchise history.
AL Rookie of the Year: Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox
With injuries becoming a concern for the Red Sox rotation, Buccholz will see significant time in the majors this year, and he won't disappoint. He's already got a no-hitter under his belt and could really take off if given 25-30 starts this year.
Well, that does it for this series. 30 articles, probably over 60,000 words, and a whole lot of time invested into this.
Rotoworld was a huge help to me, as was The Baseball Cube. I'd like to think that I contributed about 20 percent of the hits to those sites over the past month and a half.
For those that read my stuff, thanks. I can't wait to do these again next year.
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4 months ago
Wow it's very scary JJ.. In my head going over who I picked.. Our NL scenario is pretty much the same thing only I have the Padres in as the Wild Car..
Same with the AL pretty much, aside of course from Detroit being in there over the Angels..
Excellent job with your team by team breakdown, and even more props for picking the right team and AL MVP :)
4 months ago
Cubbies choke! yet again... :(
4 months ago
Great Job JJ!...I'm with you on most, but I have the Cubbies over the Mets in the NL. It will be the two franchises with the longest World Series droughts battling it out. Somebody will continue what the Red Sox and White Sox have done recently and end their long awaited championship.
And of course it will be the Indians...I haven't seen Hafner projected as an MVP this year. I like it...I just can't see his totals staying low again. He is to good of a hitter.
4 months ago
The easy answer to that, Michael:
They're the Cubs. The long answer: They're pitching ultimately loses out to Arizona's in the end.
And it seems like the only MVP picks I've seen have been Ortiz and A-Rod...while both mean a lot to their teams, if Hafner hits 40 home runs, he'll mean WAY more to Cleveland that A-Rod would to the Yanks or Ortiz to the Red Sox. If there's a sleeper MVP candidate, it's probably Hafner...
4 months ago
Nice picks, but I have (and am hoping) the mets winning the NL Pennant, not that i put any money on it.
4 months ago
Nice picks, but I have (and am hoping) the mets winning the NL Pennant, not that i put any money on it.
4 months ago
It's my turn now JJ:
Funny how everyone thinks the Yanks are closer to the Blue Jays than they are to the Red Sox. I don't know that suggests that the Red Sox are so much better than they were last year, not to mention to sudden decline of the Bombers, who essentially return the same team as in '07, having made the playoffs. We get to October 13 straight seasons and it's only fair to think that the Mariners and Indians have leapfrogged baseball's model franchise, not to mention the Mets' takeover of bragging rights in the city (only 1 playoff appearance since the 2000 W.S.). Way too much love for the Mets, Mariners, D-Backs, and Indians, none of which will make the playoffs. Reyes is the 3rd best player at his position in the division, and that's where his team will finish. The Tigers are too good to win only 87 games (they're better than the Tribe, who will not even smell the World Series). In minor news, the Marlins are better than the Natties, Brewers will keep it closer with the Cubs, you're snubbing the Pads a little bit. Too many trendy, "flavor of the month" type picks here. Get at me.
from 4 months ago
The Indians were the only team to challenge the Red Sox (The Indians were winning 3-1 at one point). The winner of the World Series will be one of those teams. Hopefully, an Ohio team can win a Championship this year.
4 months ago
I think it is unfair to judge the Brewers as a .500 team, not only saying that because I am a Brewers fan, but because their talent level can only go up. Then again, we will see what happens...
from 4 months ago
Their offensive talent level surely can go nowhere but up, but their starting pitching really scares me behind Sheets and Gallardo, if those two are even healthy.
4 months ago
props though on all the good work man, no matter how much we agree or disagree
4 months ago
I think the Yankees are taking the East back in the regular season, only to once again find out how bad Wang is in the playoffs. Other than that, I pretty much agree with everything you have up there.
Fantastic job with the entire preview series.
from 4 months ago
Lack of depth in the bullpen is why I think the Yankees struggle to make it back to October.
Thanks for your comment, Sean! Now go do your draft series!
4 months ago
Chris--All fair points, and I certainly can see where you're coming from on all of them.
Thanks again for the props, too.
4 months ago
Wow JJ... I gotta say you put some effort into this analysis.. Impressive... Only thing i might add is i think if the Braves pitching stays healthy they may give the Mets a run for their money.. And i can't see the Indians over the Sox... BUT... I'm still impressed
from 4 months ago
Thanks, Jordan. Out of all the teams on that list, I think I struggled the most with leaving the Braves out of the playoffs. They certainly will give the Mets a run for their money in that division...
4 months ago
What you people fail to realize is this.
The Yankees and Tigers STILL DON'T HAVE PITCHING..
I mean for the last oh I don't know 8 or so years..
What has it come down to?
Pitching.. Pitching Pitching Pitching..
Pitching all around.. The Red Sox and Indians have the best pitching..
What makes you think that these super mega lineups that the Yankees and Tigers have put together are going to finally break through in the post-season?
When the Tigers got too the WS back in 2006 it was because of Kenny Rogers leading the charge and that very hot bullpen.
The Rockies did the same thing, so did the Cardinals..
The Red Sox won it last year because of their pitching....
Did I make my point?!
from 4 months ago
Agreed, Nino. I mean, the 2005 White Sox sure as hell didn't win the World Series on the strength of their offense, they won it on the strength of Contreras/Buehrle/Garcia/Garland with guys like Neal Cotts, Cliff Politte, and Bobby Jenks shutting things down out of the bullpen.
Ah, 2005...such a long time ago...
4 months ago
not really
4 months ago
I completely disagree with you Nino on the fact that the tigers don't have pitching. They have a mediocre bullpen, I'll give you that, but overall they have one of the best pitching staffs in all of the american league. They have for a starting rotation: Verlander, Willis, Robertson, Rogers, Bonderman. Also, based on last years numbers the indians actually aren't in the top 2 for overall pitching staff. They are ranked 5th in the majors. You talk about how the reason the yankees weren't good was because all they had was hitting. Detroit can't even be compared to that, because they actually have a pretty solid rotation and if Rodney and Zumaya are able to come back this year could easily have one of the best bullpens in the American League.
from 4 months ago
Eric, you're right about Detroit's starting rotation, but without Rodney or Zumaya healthy their closer is Todd Jones!
believe me... I watched Pedro gut it out in Boston for six years only to have his awful bullpen betray him when it mattered most... sure the Tigers aren't nearly as bad in their pitching as the NYY or the '01 sox are but... Zumaya and Rodney both have nagging injuries and it will be a while before their both ready to go
and nino you're half right... the sox won it last year because of their great bullpen, Okajima was a warrior in the playoffs and Papelbon was unhittable...
For almost every egredgious or heartbreaking loss, there is a horrible bullpen or token reliever to blame, and Detroit simply doesn't have the depth in the pen this year, if they can pick up some arms at the deadline or in FA next offseason, they will be a dangerous club in the playoffs but I don't think that this is the year for them, even if Rodney and Zumaya are both healthy, we've all seen what happens when you rely on 2 good relievers to carry your bullpen, remember the yankees in '04? Mariano, Scott Proctor, and Quantrill were their only good relievers and they wore out come playoff time
4 months ago
i guess tom gordon wasn't one of the league's best setup men in 2004, max
4 months ago
I hope your right about Hafner, he was a huge disapointment last year. I would love to see him hit aorund 40 I think he needs it to build confidence.
4 months ago
I'm going to have to agree with Dan Haren for the NL Cy Young. If not him then Jake Peavy again.
4 months ago
One Word: CUBS.
from 4 months ago
Very nice picks-- the predictions I'd made were pretty similar. Why do you think the Brew crew will only finish .500 this year, though?
from 4 months ago
Lack of pitching, Thomas. Behind the injury-prone Sheets and Yovani Gallardo, their starting pitching is pretty unimpressive.
4 months ago
D-backs played over their heads last year. The addition of Haren will help, but they won't win the N.L. West. The Dodgers will be competive but will choke. I believe it will be between the best team in their division the last 3 years, the Padres of San Diego, and the team that defeated them in last years controversial play-in, the Colorado Rockies.
4 months ago
youre kidding me right? first of all braves over phils? the braves have no hitting and old ptiching. then, dodgers over padres and colorado? and worst of all how are the indians going to beat detroit, detroit has a monster lineup, and better pitching than the tribe. i also have to disagree with the mvps, maglio ordonez is the al mvp, and eric berdard is king in seattle. also the nl cy young is between johan santana and cole hamels baby! nice effort though
from 4 months ago
"the braves have no hitting"
are you kidding me? Their line-up is built and can compete with the rest of the division (don't say look at what happened yesterday... that's just one game). They may have old pitching, but their pitching is nonetheless very capable and could provide huge experience if they go to the playoffs. And, since when did the Phillies have better pitching than the Braves? The Braves rotation has more depth and quality and their rotation is a notch above the Phillies. Obviously, I can tell you are a biased Phillies fan.
Also, I agree with JJ Stankevitz. The Indians will finish ahead of the Tigers, but probably not by that much. Detroit may have an amazing line-up, but the Indians have an underrated line-up. And, you have got to be kidding me when you say "[Detriot has] better pitching than the tribe." The Indians pitching is the best in the division and will carry them farther than the Tigers.
4 months ago
JJ, I have to agree with a bunch of the commenters about the BrewCrew. They are a much better than .500 team and they are better than the Cubs. You say that the Brew doesn't have any pitching but the Cubs don't either. Other than Zambrano (who isn't exactly automatic) they have who? Ted Lilly who needs at least 4 runs to win a game? Marquis who is a .500 pitcher? Lieber? Hill? All of these guys need the Cubs to score at least 4 runs and usually 5 or 6 to win a game. They don't have a pen either so unless Zambrano and Lilly can pitch 250 innings each, it will be a long 100th year in Chicago.
The Brew has Sheets (in a contract year) and two top young pitchers in Manny Parra and Carlos Villanueva. Dave Bush should perform well enough as well. The Brew have the ability to knock out 4 runs a game with Fielder-Hardy-Braun in their lineup. The Cubs just don't have it.
But I like the Dan Haren pick...let's see what happens tonight in his first start against the swing-happy Reds.
from 4 months ago
Thanks for your comments, Glenn, but all the research I've done shows that the Brewers don't have the pitching, not just in their starting rotation, but in their bullpen. You saw how bad Gagne was the other day, and David Riske or Derrick Turnbow are both pretty poor options to close for a contending team as well. I just don't see the Brewers getting it done, but if they can get performance out of Parra and Villanueva and find a closer, then they would have to be the favorites.
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