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Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: Round by Round Projections for 2013

Eric MatulaContributor IIFebruary 8, 2013

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: Round by Round Projections for 2013

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    Fantasy baseball mock drafts have already started. I've taken a look at the collected data so far, and I will show you what to expect on your draft day.

    This slideshow is a ranking of players by their average draft position (ADP). It is not how I would rank each player. You can find that here.

    Being prepared for your draft is very important and knowing each player's ADP is equally as vital. You'll know who you might have to reach for and who you can wait on.

    Here's an article that shows a round by round projection for a 12-team league.

     

    ADP stats are courtesy of Mock Draft Central

Round 1

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    1, Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

    2. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

    3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers

    4. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

    5. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

    6. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

    7. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

    8. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

    9. Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

    10. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies

    11. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

    12. Buster Posey, C/1B, San Francisco Giants

     

    Analysis

    I have Trout as my No. 1 pick, but I can see why people are picking Braun. It will be interesting to see if Braun's recent PED allegations will drop his ADP in the next couple of weeks.

    I think Kemp, McCutchen and Posey are going a little too soon and I think Gonzalez is going way too early. I have Kemp at seventh, Cutch at ninth and Posey at 14th. Gonzalez's injury concerns drop him to 15th on my list.

    Conversely, I have Cano, Pujols, Votto and Fielder all higher on my board. Getting Fielder with the 11th pick is a value.

Round 2

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    13. Justin Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves

    14. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

    15. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers

    16. Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees

    17. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals

    18. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies

    19. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins 

    20. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers

    21. Josh Hamilton, OF, Los Angeles Angels 

    22. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

    23. Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles

    24. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

     

    Analysis

    This biggest name that stands out in this round is Paul Goldschmidt. I think he's a great player and he'll have a good 2013, but there's no way he should be going 22nd overall, ahead of guys like Jones, Strasburg and Evan Longoria.

    Other players that are going too high for my liking are Justin Upton, Adrian Beltre and Bryce Harper. I listed Upton at 23rd, Beltre at 27th and Harper at 50th.

    If you can get Verlander at 20th, that's a great bargain. I put him 12th overall. I understand that some people don't like taking a pitcher early, but at season's end, Verlander is going to prove he should be a first-rounder.

Round 3

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    25. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals

    26. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays 

    27. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays 

    28. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers

    29. B.J. Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves

    30. Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

    31. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs

    32. Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds

    33. David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays 

    34. Jose Reyes, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

    35. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves 

    36. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta Braves

     

    Analysis

    I guess I'll start at the top. I wouldn't take Wright over Longoria. I think Longo is good at 27th, but I would bump Wright down to about 35th.

    I don't like Gonzalez, Castro or Upton going in the third round. I think all three of those players will have solid seasons, but I wouldn't reach for them this early.

    Strasburg falling to the third round is a great value. I have him 13th overall on my board. He won't have any innings limit this season, so I would expect a monster year.

    Every other year I would say taking a closer this early would be ridiculous, but Kimbrel is a different story. His numbers are incredible and he can definitely make a difference.

Round 4

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    37. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

    38. Allen Craig, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals

    39. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

    40. Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City Royals

    41. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers

    42. Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals

    43. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers

    44. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners

    45. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox

    46. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

    47. Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres

    48. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

     

    Analysis

    I absolutely love getting Lee at 39th. That's crazy. I have him 18th overall, so getting him at the beginning of the fourth round would be a great bargain.

    I also like Hernandez, Hamels, Butler and Kinsler falling this late as well. I have all of them significantly higher. It really surprises me that people are taking Starlin Castro before a perennial Cy Young contender in King Felix.

    I think Craig, Molina, Ramirez, Zimmerman and Headley are being overvalued. I'm not sold on Headley just yet. He had one monster second-half, but I need to see more from him. He will definitely be reached for in your league, but don't be that guy.

Round 5

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    49. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oakland A's

    50. Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angeles

    51. Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

    52. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians

    53. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees

    54. Joe Mauer, C/1B, Minnesota Twins

    55. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs

    56. Yu Darvish, SP, Texas Rangers

    57. Carlos Santana, C/1B, Cleveland Indians

    58. Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants

    59. Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles

    60. Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City Royals

     

    Analysis

    Rizzo is being undervalued at 55th. I have him about 10 spots earlier. He is capable of reaching 30 home runs this season.

    I don't know why people pass on Holliday. Yes, he's getting older, but over the last four years he has hit .305 while averaging 25.25 HR, 97.25 RBI,  91.75 R and 7.25 SB per season.

    I think Kipnis, Darvish and Wieters are being drafted too early. I really can't believe Darvish is going before Cain. The catcher slot is deeper than you think, so I wouldn't reach for Wieters at the end of the fifth round. 

Round 6

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    61. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves

    62. Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS/OF, Tampa Bay Rays

    63. Miguel Montero, C, Arizona Diamondbacks

    64. Mike Napoli, C/1B, Boston Red Sox

    65. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

    66. Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

    67. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants

    68. Mark Trumbo, 1B/3B/OF, Los Angeles Angels

    69. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals

    70. Kris Medlen, SP, Atlanta Braves

    71. James Shields, SP, Kansas City Royals

    72. Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox

     

    Analysis

    If you can snag Bumgarner or Gonzalez midway through the sixth round, then you might be on your way to a championship. I have both of those players about 20 spots earlier. Obviously there's some concern with Gonzalez with the PED allegations, but MadBum has been dazzling over the last two seasons.

    I also like drafting Zobrist or Medlen this late. Zobrist isn't a superstar, but he fills up a stat line and has valuable position eligibility. Medlen will be a question mark, but I think he'll have a very good 2013 season.

    I wouldn't draft Trumbo this early and I really don't like taking Montero 63rd overall. That pick baffles me. He hit .286 with 15 homers a season ago. That's good, but that's not special. I would rather pick Ian Desmond, Aaron Hill or Jimmy Rollins before Montero.

Round 7

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    73. Brandon Philips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds

    74. Michael Bourn, OF, Free Agent

    75. Melky Cabrera, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

    76. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cincinnati Reds

    77. R.A. Dickey, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

    78. Aaron Hill, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks

    79. Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

    80. Wilin Rosario, C, Colorado Rockies

    81. Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies

    82. Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox 

    83. Alex Rios, OF, Chicago White Sox

    84. Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

     

    Analysis

    I never thought I would see the reigning Cy Young winner drop to the seventh round. That's very shocking. While I do believe Dickey is in for a regression this season, I don't think it will be that drastic.

    I would love being able to draft Greinke, Sale or Halladay at the end of round seven. They can easily go a few rounds earlier. Halladay should be in for a nice rebound season, and there's no reason to think that Sale can't duplicate another dominating year.

    I think taking Howard and Rosario this early is a bit of a stretch. Again, the catcher position is deeper than you think. There's no reason to take Rosario here in the seventh round. Howard's situation will be an interesting one. I don't think he returns to his dominant days, but if you think he can, then this is a good spot for him.

Round 8

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    85. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies

    86. Jason Motte, RP, St. Louis Cardinals

    87. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

    88. CC Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees

    89. Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals

    90. Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers

    91. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals

    92. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros

    93. Josh Willingham, OF, Minnesota Twins

    94. Hunter Pence, OF, San Francisco Giants

    95. Jesus Montero, C, Seattle Mariners

    96. Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds

     

    Analysis

    Getting Sabathia or Altuve in the eighth round is a bargain. Sabathia is a horse and you know you can count on him. I'm a big Altuve fan. I would love getting a second baseman who can hit .290 with 30 stolen bases this late.

    I agree that Papelbon should be the second closer drafted. I actually think he could go a few spots earlier. As for Motte, I would wait on him until the next round.

    I don't like Montero going this early. As I have mentioned before, I don't like reaching on catchers, especially if you're in a one-catcher league. Just wait. There's solid options later in the draft.

Round 9

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    97. Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets

    98. Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers

    99. Chris Davis, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles

    100. Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers

    101. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

    102. Fernando Rodney, RP, Tampa Bay Rays

    103. Torii Hunter, OF, Detroit Tigers

    104. Victor Martinez, C/1B, Detroit Tigers

    105. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies

    106. Angel Pagan, OF, San Francisco Giants

    107. Carlos Beltran, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

    108. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco Giants

     

    Analysis

    There are several values in round nine. I feel like getting Jackson and Gallardo are good bargains this late, and I really love Rollins and Sandoval.

    I don't know if many people realized that Rollins ended up as the top shortstop last year. I don't think he will again in 2013, but if you can get him 105th overall, then that's a steal. Sandoval failed to stay healthy last season, but he's fully capable of 20 homers and a .290 average.

    The glaring reach in this round is Rodney, which is to be expected. He was brilliant last season, but I'm not completely sold on him just yet. I would rather take a more proven closer than trust his one terrific season.

Round 10

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    109. Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Washington Nationals

    110. Mat Latos, SP, Cincinnati Reds

    111. David Ortiz, 1B, Boston Red Sox

    112. Ian Kennedy, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

    113. Danny Espinosa, 2B/SS, Washington Nationals

    114. Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians

    115. Adam LaRoche, 1B, Washington Nationals

    116. John Axford, RP, Milwaukee Brewers

    117. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers

    118. Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

    119. Joe Nathan, RP, Texas Rangers

    120. Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds

     

    Analysis

    I am very shocked to see Andrus go this late in the draft. The shortstop pool isn't very deep and Andrus is capable of hitting .285 with a handful of homers and 30 steals. I would gladly draft him at the tail end of the 10th round.

    I was also surprised to see Zimmermann, Latos, Ortiz and Nathan fall to this round. Zimmermann has strung together back-to-back fantastic seasons and could go 20 spots earlier. Latos had a great year and Ortiz was putting up MVP numbers before he got hurt.

    Do you really want to draft Axford before Nathan? Axford posted a 4.67 ERA last year while Nathan was at 2.80. Nathan also recorded more saves.

    One of biggest questions in arguably the entire draft is where to pick Chapman. Had he remained the closer for the Reds, he could have gone well inside the top 60. But now we must decide how he'll handle the transition. I think 120 is a good spot for him at the current moment. Just monitor the situation during spring training.

Overall Analysis

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    Biggest Observations

    Catchers are going way too early and pitchers aren't going early enough.

    The catcher pool is deeper than you think. There's no reason to take Miguel Montero early when you have players like Jonathan Lucroy, Brian McCann and Ryan Doumit who can put up similar numbers and will be there later in the draft.

    As for the pitching, I was surprised to see how it's being portrayed. While I agree hitting is more valuable than pitching, there's no reason why a starting pitcher shouldn't be taken in the first round. There were just two pitchers in the top 20, and there could easily be another three or four. 

    Overvalued

    Here's a look at the most overvalued players at the current moment. Pay attention to these names because if you really want one of these players, you'll most likely have to reach for them.

    Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, Starlin Castro, Chase Headley, Jason Kipnis, Allen Craig, Matt Wieters, Yu Darvish, Jesus Montero and Mark Trumbo.

    Undervalued

    Here's a look at the most undervalued players at the current moment. Pay attention to these names because you will most likely be able to wait on them and get a great value.

    Cliff Lee, Billy Butler, Cole Hamels, Matt Holliday, Ben Zobrist, R.A. Dickey, Roy Halladay, Elvis Andrus, Pablo Sandoval and David Ortiz.

    Notables Who Weren't Even in the Mock Draft

    Some players weren't even in this article because of their low ADP. Here are a few of them that are definitely getting overlooked.

    Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Rutledge, Mariano Rivera, Sergio Romo, Dan Haren, Josh Reddick, Shane Victorino, Doug Fister and Matt Garza.

    Conclusion

    Knowing the ADPs of players is just as important as your cheat sheet during the draft. Everyone knows that gut-wrenching feeling of when someone snipes a player that you really wanted just two picks before your selection. You can prevent running into that feeling if you know the latest ADP stats.

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