(Read all of Aaron's thoughts on the upcoming Major League Baseball season at www.aarontorres-sports.com)

 

1. You’ll regret doubting the Tampa Bay Rays.

When a team has been as bad, for as long, as the Tampa Bay Rays were, it’s easy to question whether they have staying power.  But don’t

The Rays are young, athletic and brace yourself…may be even better in 2009.

I know its saying a lot for a team which won 97 games in baseball’s toughest division, but consider this:

1. No one in the Rays line-up hit above .300, with two time All-Star Carl Crawford, and one of Tampa Bay’s best on-base guys having the worst statistical year of his career.
   
   
2. B.J. Upton who exploded for seven home runs in the postseason, had just nine the entire regular season while nursing a sore shoulder.  While Upton will start this year on the disabled list, it’s hard to imagine him not topping his offensive numbers from a year ago.
   
   
3. Carlos Pena didn’t play for three weeks in June and still managed to hit 31 home runs and drive in 102 runs. 
   
   
4. Rookie phenom Evan Longoria missed over a month of play himself in the second half, and still had 27 home runs and 85 RBI.  While Pena may struggle to play 150 games, it isn’t hard to see Longoria playing that much.  And imagine the numbers he’ll put up if he does.
   
   
5. As good as the line-up was despite the injuries, the Rays added a player in Pat Burrell who’s had at least 29 home runs each of the last four years. 
   
   
6. Tampa Bay’s best pitcher Scott Kazmir didn’t start a game in the month of April in 2008, and struggled down the stretch, posting a 5.19 ERA in September.  This, a year after leading the American League in strikeouts.  While he may never turn into the dominant top-flight starter that Tampa Bay brass hope him to be, he won’t be as bad as 2008 either.
   
   
7. The Rays bullpen held up the entire post-season without their closer Troy Percival.
   
   

So here are the facts: The Red Sox, and especially the Yankees went out and did more to improve their teams this year.

But looking at what happened in Tampa a year ago, the Rays conceivably dealt with, and overcame more than either team. 

I’m not going to go out on a limb and say they’ll win 97 games again, but their young players are still getting better, and they will be in the thick of the playoff race until the last day of the season. 

 

2. The Athletics did not trade for Matt Holliday in hopes of flipping him later on.

Like most of you I’m sure, the Holliday trade puzzled me and I assumed it was Billy Beane simply acquiring a big bargaining chip for this season’s trade deadline.

But after looking over the rest of his off-season moves, it is clear to me that Beane is ahead of the game, and built a team to compete right now. 

The Athletics already have one of the best young staffs in Major League Baseball with Justin Duchscherer an All-Star a year ago, and Dana Eveland and Sean Gallagher emerging.  Factor in young guys like Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, and I see Beane sitting their rubbing his chin, and hoping that three of those six become quality starters. 

Now, offensively you’ve added a lot of “low risk, high reward,” players in Holliday who you know you can trade to a contender, and Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera and Nomar Garciaparra to one-year deals. 

You know all of the above mentioned offensive players are going to perform (or at the very least suit up every day), because Holliday is seeking that monster contract in the off-season, and Giambi and Cabrera both believe they may be able to get that two or three year deal they craved this off-season, next year. 

Make no mistake, the A’s are built to win right now, with Holliday as their centerpiece.

(Random side note: Why were the A’s and to a smaller degree the Boston Red Sox the only teams that figured out how to use the economy to their advantage this off-season?)

There were so many average to good players (Giambi, Cabrera, Ben Sheets, Garrett Anderson, John Smoltz) at well below market value, and no one seemed to think to themselves, “Hey I can get this guy on the cheap for a year, and I know he’ll play hard the whole season, because he’s hoping the economy picks up so he can get the contract next year that he thought he’d get this year.”

Seriously, if you’re a team like the Brewers that desperately needed an extra arm in the rotation, why not take a chance on Smoltz?  Or say you’re the Marlins and can seriously compete for a division crown this year.  Why not take a flyer on Bobby Abreu.  I know your budget is tight, but it’s only one year.  And worse case scenario is that the guy bombs and you part ways after the season. 

(This is why Billy Beane is a genius, and everyone else is constantly playing catch up.)

 

3. Speaking of the AL West, the sun is officially setting on the Angels…as we know them.

We’re all friends here, so let's be honest: Angels management swung for the fences last year by trading for Mark Teixeira, knowing that the window was closing fast on their chance at a championship.

The trade went well, but the Angels once again couldn’t beat the Red Sox in October, and are now left to pick up the pieces.

So let’s see where they stand:

Casey Kotchman is now in Atlanta, via the Teixeira trade, and because of it, the Angels are stuck with an untested Kendry Morales at first base.

Their highly touted young players haven’t quite developed the way they had hoped with Howie Kendrick still just a singles hitter, and Brandon Wood being stuck with the label of “high-upside prospect who strikes out too much,” since seemingly the Reagan administration. 

Vladimir Guerrero is still one of the most feared hitters in the game, but is a defensive and base running liability at this point in his career.  With his impending free agency next winter, it’ll be interesting to see if the Angels bring him back.

The starting pitching staff isn’t nearly what it was just a year ago.  John Lackey missed the first six weeks of last regular season, and won’t be healthy for opening day this year.  Ervin Santana won’t be ready either, after a nice bounce back in 2008.  And teams seem to have figured out Jered Weaver.

Luckily for Angels fans, Artie Moreno is one of the best owners in baseball, and the club is run internally as well as any. 

This organization will never flounder the way others have and will find a way to reassert itself.  It just won’t be with this particular group of players.

I’m not saying the Angels can’t or won’t win the division, just that they don’t appear to be a threat to win it all, the way they’ve been in years past.

 

4. Philadelphia will have trouble “defending” their championship.

Often times in sports, you have a feel from the beginning, that it just might not be a team's year.

We saw it this year in football with the New York Giants.  After winning the Super Bowl, Michael Strahan retired, they lost some good players to free agency, and others to season ending injuries, all before the season started.  And with that whole Plaxico Burress shooting incident, you just didn’t get the feel that it was their year, even after they tore through the regular season.

I’m already having that feeling about the Phillies. 

It starts with their starters, namely their stud, Cole Hamels.  The lefty missed Opening Day, and although he is expected to return quickly, it is uncertain how effective he will be. 

Remember this is a guy who has had injury problems in the past, so don’t be surprised if the elbow problem lingers.  (In a podcast I did with author John Frascella last week, he stated that Hamels has the most pressure of anyone in baseball coming into the season.  Frascella doesn’t believe the Phillies can win the World Series without Hamels at 100 percent, and I agree.)

Then you add in, that despite leading the Major Leagues in home runs and RBI a year ago, Ryan Howard is a notoriously slow starter, batting just .168 last April. 

And while Chase Utley will be back for opening day, questions still linger about his off-season hip surgery.    

Also don’t forget that Philadelphia’s best lefty set-up man J.C. Romero has been suspended for the first 50 games because of performance enhancing drug use. 

It’s not going to be easy in Philadelphia.  Especially because they play in…

 

5. The NL East is the most balanced division in baseball.

Have you seen these teams, because this division is seriously stacked!

The Phillies are the defending champions, and we’ve already talked about them.

The Mets led the division right down to the wire in 2008, and improved their most glaring weakness, in the bullpen, by trading for two of the games best late innings guys J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez. 

Florida is absolutely loaded.  Their starting staff is highlighted by Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson and stud in waiting Chris Volstad.  If they can get any type of production from Anibal Sanchez (struggled in 2008, but remember he has thrown a no-hitter in his career and been a productive Major Leaguer) and Andrew Miller (a ton of upside, hasn’t yet put it all together), they will be tough to score runs on. 

Offensively Hanley Ramirez is one of the best in the game, and Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu were excellent a year ago.  And if Cameron Maybin ever puts all his tools together he’s a 30-30 guy waiting to happen.  This is a team that will absolutely compete down to the wire, and if a few of their young players can exceed expectations, might be able to win the division.

I don’t think Atlanta has the bats to compete, but their staff is going to give Philadelphia and New York fans headaches all year.  Put Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez down for at least 13-15 wins and 200 innings each, and Jair Jurrjens has been lights out this spring.

Even Washington has a lot of good talent, highlighted by the recent signing of Adam Dunn. 

While the AL East is the most top-heavy division in baseball, this is without a doubt the deepest. 

 

(Agree with Aaron?  Disagree with him?  Let him know at www.aarontorres-sports.com or at ATorres00@gmail.com)

 

6. The Yankees are going to struggle, and it won’t be because of A-Rod.

It’s so much to explain, I had to write a separate column about it.

 

7. You probably won’t be able to name a single starter on the Twins not named “Mauer,” or “Morneau,” and they’re still going to win the AL Central.

Late last summer, I caught the Twins in New York against the Yankees, and after watching them for nine innings I said, “Under absolutely no circumstances does that team win the AL Central.” 

And I was right, they didn’t, but it took a White Sox win on the last day of the regular season, and then a one game playoff for the Twins to be sitting at home in October.

Honestly, I don’t know how they do it.  Looking at their line-up, they don’t have great on-base percentage guys getting on ahead of their “big two,” (Mauer and Morneau).  Michael Cuddyer was hurt for most of last year, and Delmon Young didn’t hit a home run almost until the All-Star break.

Their rotation was short one “Johan,” from a year before, and missing wonder kid Francisco Liriano for basically the entire year.

Yet somehow, some combination of Denard Span in right, Kevin Slowey on the mound and Ron Gardenhire managing, this team came within of a few innings of the postseason.

Don’t ask me how they get there this year, but don’t say that I didn’t tell you so when it happens.

 

8. The biggest free agent signing no one is talking about is…Randy Johnson to the Giants.

Call me crazy for tabbing a 45-year-old power pitcher with back problems as a “steal,” for the Giants. 

But look at the numbers.

A year ago, Johnson threw 184 innings, and had 173 strikeouts and 3.91 ERA while winning 11 games.

Now he moves to one of the best pitchers parks in baseball, and will routinely face some of the worst line-ups in all of baseball. (Have you seen who the Padres are trotting out there this year?  Luis Rodriguez?  Nick Hundley?  Where’s Willie Mays Hayes and Jake Taylor?)

Also, while their line-up seems to be a hodgepodge of washed-up vets and unproven youngsters, they will score.  Trust me.  They have a bunch of speedy guys at the top of their line-up, and gap hitters to get them in.

So as long as the Unit can stay healthy, chalk him up for 13-15 wins.

It sounds nuts, until of course you factor that he’ll be pitching in the literal Wild Wild West. 

 

9. John Smoltz will be a factor for the Red Sox

One of the best ongoing jokes this off-season has come from my friends who are Yankees fans, mocking me for the Smoltz signing.  This of course after New York got C.C. Sabathia; without a doubt the best pitcher available in this winter’s free agent market.

Laugh all you want Yankees fans, but Smoltz will be a factor this season.

It might not be until June, and it might be as a spot starter or reliever.  I don’t know. 

But Smoltz is one of the most competitive guys in baseball, and has to be itching to get back at every other team that gave up on him. 

While he isn’t the Cy Young Award candidate he was a few years ago, he can- and still- will bring it in short spurts.

And he could be one of the biggest factors in deciding the American League East.

 

10. Cleveland has by far the wackiest starting rotation going into the season

Honestly, can we just put these guys in a Real World house together, and tape their every movement?

On Opening Day you’ll have Cliff Lee, the reigning Cy Young Award winner, who won 22 games a year ago.  Of course that came a year after he only won five games and was sent to the minors for part of the 2007 season.  He had an ERA over 12 this spring, giving up seven runs to the woeful Mariners starting line-up in his final tune-up.

At the second spot is Fausto Carmona, who started his career as a closer, proceeded to blow more saves in a week than some teams do in an entire season, and then bounced back and won 19 games as a starter in 2007.  Last year injuries plagued him, as he won just eight.

Carl Pavano is next, and no joke is needed, as he started just 11 games in the past two seasons for the Yankees, all the while making $10 million a year.

Next up is Anthony Reyes, who has struggled in recent years, after helping the Cardinals to the 2006 World Series.

Finally, you’ve got Scott Lewis.  I don’t know much about him, but he sounds more like a hot-shot real estate broker than a ballplayer.

The scariest thing about the rotation: I think they’ll actually be pretty good.  And with the AL Central in a perceived down year, there’s no reason they won’t be able to compete for a division crown.

I only hope we keep the cameras rolling to capture the whole thing.

 

11. The National League MVP Award will go to a guy who’s never won one

Obviously that rules out Albert Pujols, who’s got two in his trophy case, Ryan Howard and Chipper Jones.

So who could I be talking about?  The most beloved man in Dodgertown: Manny Ramirez.

The amazing thing is, that despite the rest of baseball getting a three week head-start on Manny, he still came out of the gates and hit .476 this spring.  And the craziest thing is Ramirez himself doesn’t believe he’s near top shape.

But maybe the most important factor in Mannygate ’09 might be that he has an opt out clause in his current contract, making him a free agent this summer if he so chooses.  Which of course means that the inner-Manny that plays hard for 150 games comes out, not the one who forced his way out of Boston last season.

The only question is, whether the people who vote for the award will give it to Ramirez, who clearly didn’t make any friends in 2008.

But if it is given to the best player, it will go to Manny.  And it won’t even be close.

 

12. The American League MVP Award will go to a guy who’s never won one, and plays on a .500 team.

This one is definitely more of a hunch, but I’m going to give it to Josh Hamilton.

He’s a guy that plays in a hitters park, and is surrounded by guys like Ian Kinsler and Michael Young, who get on in front of him, and have some form of protection from Hank Blalock and David Murphy. 

Also, because Texas’ pitching is so bad, he’ll likely get pitches late in games that other premiere players wouldn’t, as teams simply are trying to get outs and win games.

Yes he had a second half swoon last year, but he clearly wasn’t the same player after the home run derby.  And keep in mind that Kinsler and former teammate Milton Bradley combined to miss close to 80 games last year, not helping Hamilton’s cause.

In what amounts to be his third full season, and just entering his prime years, Hamilton will continue his rise back to the top, by taking home baseball’s shiniest individual hardware.

Just don’t expect his team to win much. 

 

(Want to hear Aaron discuss the upcoming season with author John Frascella?  Listen here at www.aarontorres-sports.com)

 

13. Whoever wins the American League wins the World Series. 

What a limb huh?

But seriously, who should the big boys from the American League be afraid of?

The Phillies?  Their shortfalls have been mentioned already (although I said the same thing last spring, and those shortfalls were shoved in my face).

The Mets?  Who in their rotation would even start for the Yankees, and maybe even Red Sox or Rays other than Johan?

Dodgers: same thing, can you win a World Series with Chad Billingsley as potentially your No. 1 starter.

Finally the Cubs.  On paper everything you’d want.  But as I’ve said 100 times, the games aren’t played on paper.  And I know it’s a new season, but the Cubs have been swept out of the last two playoffs, getting outscored 36-11 in the process. 

So like in 2007, it all comes down to the American League, which will be won by…

 

14. The Boston Red Sox: Your 2009 World Series Champions

Call it a homer pick if you’d like, and I’m fine with that. 

But in a season in which all the major contenders have major problems, to me the Red Sox have the least, which will allow them to win it all when the games count most.

Their rotation isn’t as good as the Yankees, if every single pitcher pitches to their potential.  But Josh Beckett appears to be healthy, and when he is, is still one of the best in the game.  Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield have proved to be incredibly reliable.  We can argue back and forth on Daisuke Matsuzaka all day, but the guy won 18 games last year (although they were admittedly 18 of the ugliest wins you’ll ever see) and was phenomenal in the World Baseball Classic this spring.

Boston’s bullpen has improved with the additions of Ramon Ramirez and Takashi Saito, in addition to Justin Masterson setting up Jonathan Papelbon. 

Also admittedly, the line-up has more questions than on most Opening Day’s in Boston. David Ortiz struggled through knee and wrist injuries the past two seasons and isn’t getting any younger.  J.D. Drew is a day-to-day enigma and Mike Lowell’s career may have literally apexed in the 2006 World Series. 

But seriously, even with all that, do you really not expect them to not score runs? 

Even at 50 percent Ortiz is better than most of baseball.  Dustin Pedroia is coming off an MVP year.  Kevin Youkilis had career highs in Home Runs, RBI and batting average (with very comparable numbers to his New York Yankees counterpart Mark Teixeira, who he actually had more extra base hits than in 2008).  Jason Bay- regardless of league- has gone over 30 Home Runs and 100 RBI in three of the past four years.  Let’s be honest, they’re not exactly the Pittsburgh Pirates here.

And regardless, championships are won with pitching and defense anyways, a combination I believe the Red Sox have the best combination of in baseball.

During the Phillies 2008 World Series run, all the talk was on the big boppers in the middle of their line-up: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, as well as starter Cole Hamels. 

What no one talks about is that a pitching staff which was underrated all year, gave up only 44 runs in 14 games; about 3.1 a game.  And while the defense wasn’t always perfect, up-the-middle the Phillies featured Rollins at shortstop and Shane Victorino in centerfield, both Gold Glove winners last year, and Chase Utley at second base, who is widely considered one of the best defensive players at his position.

So while the Red Sox are young up the middle, Jed Lowrie at shortstop, Pedroia at second and Jacoby Ellsbury in center comprise an athletic and intelligent defensive backbone. 

Add that in with a strong pitching staff from top to bottom, and still one of the best line-ups in baseball, and you what is in my estimations the best team in baseball, and the one that will win it all. 

Agree if you want.  Yell at me and call me an idiot if you want.  But one thing is certain, it’s time to play ball!

 

(Whether you agree or disagree with Aaron, let him know at www.aarontorres-sports.com)