Can Tom Izzo Scheme Michigan State Past North Carolina in Championship Game?

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

There is also some hope that Kalin Lucas, the Big 10 Player of the Year, can at least slow down UNC’s Ty Lawson. While Lawson is the fastest point guard in the nation, Lucas may well be number two on that list, in addition to being an incredibly gutsy performer, at once scrappy and athletic.

Troy Walton, meanwhile, is an excellent defender who has a chance to slow down the dangerous Wayne Ellington on the wing.

Keep in mind as well that the Spartans may have an advantage of their own in the rebounding department. Villanova actually out-rebounded UNC on Saturday, 50-46, including 19 offensive boards for the Wildcats. While the Tar Heels are hardly slouches on the boards, Michigan State is an outstanding rebounding team with a chance to win that particular battle on Monday night.

Finally, it’s important to consider that Michigan State can match UNC in another area where the Heels usually reign supreme: depth. Roy Williams loves to wear opposing teams by pushing pace and using his deep bench early (see: Villanova). He won’t be about to count on much of an advantage, though, against a Spartan team that is, if anything, deeper than UNC.

So there it is for Izzo and Michigan State, the anatomy of a potential upset: 1) Slow things down, run the clock on offense in the hopes of shortening the game and frustrating UNC’s desire to run; 2) Prevent the Heels from running whenever possible (if possible) and match up defensively in the half court game; 3) Dominate the boards- one shot and one shot only for Carolina on each possession.

If Michigan State can accomplish all this, they can hope to keep the game close, lets say within ten, heading down the stretch. This will keep the partisan Spartan crowd in the game. Keep in mind- many of the Villanova and UConn fans are heading home.

Their tickets for Monday night will be gobbled up by Michigan Staters. If you thought the crowd was pro MSU on Saturday, just wait until Monday.

Izzo and company will have to hope that, if they can stay with striking distance in the final minutes, the crowd will ramp things up, Carolina will start to feel the pressure, and the Spartans will find a way to steal the national championship.

One thing is for sure, if Michigan State can boil this game down to one offensive possession for a win or tie, Izzo will run a set play out of a timeout and make it happen.

Know this: Michigan State can win this game. 

But will they? At this point, it’s hard to go against Carolina. It says here, though, that MSU will keep this game much closer than many seem to think. Carolina will have to earn it down the stretch in a tough game featuring a slower tempo than they would like to see.

This Michigan State team matches up much better against Carolina than Villanova did or, for that matter, than the earlier Spartan squad that lost to the Heels by 35.

So, while the pick has to be North Carolina, if you happen to be Las Vegas, as I am, you might want to consider taking those 7.5 points (maybe more by game time) and/or taking a look at a lower scoring game that goes UNDER the posted total of 153.

PREDICTION: UNC 76-MSU 72

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