In 2007, the Tribe had two dominant performances by young aces as well as unexpected performances from the bullpen. To the casual fan, the Indians and their pitching seemed to come from nowhere.
Their run through the AL Central in 2007 has been compared to the 2005 White Sox and 2006 Tigers. All came from losing seasons to make the playoffs the following year. All three teams were successful because of pitching.
The problem with the comparison is that the Sox and Tigers success was based on extreme jumps in pitching.
In 2005 the Tigers team ERA was 4.51, eighth in the league. In 2006 during their World Series run, they led the AL in ERA at 3.84. This was a league high drop of .67 runs. This even happened in a season when only four AL teams lowered their team ERA’s. In 2007, the Tigers’ ERA jumped back up .73 runs, making it nearly identical to 2005.
The 2005 White Sox team that won the World Series had an even more extreme jump. In 2004 their team ERA was 4.91, twelfth in the league, while in the 2005 championship season, it fell to 3.61. This tied it for the league lead with Cleveland. This was a drop of 1.3 runs, also the most extreme drop in the league as Detroit’s. In 2006, the team ERA raised 1.00 runs and then another .16 in 2007 to resurface to prior levels.
Now back to Cleveland and 2007. Three other teams actually had higher drops in ERA including the World Champion Red Sox (.96 runs), Toronto Blue Jays (.37) and Kansas City Royals (1.17). The Indians’ drop was only .36 runs.
Due to the youth of the staff and recent success, this improvement should not have surprised many. Coming into the year, the Indians’ had finished first in the league in 2005, and only fell to sixth in 2006 after some bullpen struggles caused the team to fall out of contention.
The production from the rotation however was consistent. The starters ERA in ’05 was 3.96, ’06 was 4.31 and in 2007 4.19. Not as dramatic as you’d think with two players in the running for the Cy Young award.
The difference came from key performances from Rafael Betancourt and youngsters Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis in the bullpen. These developing talents gave Cleveland the best setup tandem in the league, which will remain for the foreseeable future.
If anyone should be compared to the Tigers and White Sox, look squarely at the Red Sox. Their jump in pitching was similar and with World Series appearance results.
On average since the year 2000, teams who have had a decrease in team ERA of .8 runs or greater, have seen an increase the following season of .319 runs. It has happened 12 times since 2000, and only two have decreased their ERA again the following season. The 2005 Cardinals and 2002 Astros.
This should be an interesting point to watch as 2008 unfolds. Can the Red Sox or even the Royals, sustain the dramatic improvements we saw in their pitching?
As for the Indians decrease of .36 runs, 16 such occurrences have happened with a team lowering their ERA between .3-.4 runs since 2000. Ten of those 16 times the ERA increased the following season, The six teams who have lowered it are: the 2003 Astros, 2004 Devil Rays, 2005 Twins, 2005 Tigers, 2005 Mets, and 2007 Diamondbacks.
With the exception of the ’04 Devil Rays, this list includes teams that were either playoff teams or developing playoff teams in the following season. Exactly where the Indians are.
On the other side of the coin, seven of the ten that increased were again playoff teams or one year away from the playoffs.
While chances look to be that the Indians may not significantly decrease their team ERA again, the Indians are in a solid position to sustain a successful run.
The Tigers may be roaring after a huge off-season that has them projecting as a title contender, but the Indians pitching prowess has gone unnoticed as a consistent top of the line group that will again put them in contention. They have now been in the top six of the AL for three years running and still have room to grow.
It will be a fun summer to watch in the A.L. Central. Will Detroit’s lineup or Cleveland’s pitching staff win out? Most assume Cleveland had their chance and will fade away as their recent Central counterparts have.
As we have seen here, don’t count out Cleveland yet. Their success was not an overnight story that will quickly fade away.
We're going to send you the most entertaining Cleveland Indians articles, videos, and podcasts from around the web.
1 Comments
Loading more comments...
This comment and all replies have been deleted This comment has been deleted Undo delete