No matter which team wins the Super Bowl—either the Baltimore Ravens or the San Francisco 49ers—everyone will be looking to see what the margin of victory was.
Baltimore and San Francisco both come into Super Bowl XLVII with playmaking offenses and hard-hitting defenses, but who will come out on top and by how much? Both franchises have been a part of some close games, as well as some blowouts.
The Ravens come into Sunday’s matchup against the 49ers with a higher average margin of victory, but also a higher average margin of loss.
So, who should you take when betting on margin of victory? Let me give you some hints.
San Francisco 49ers: 7 to 12 Points (4/1)
Rarely will the 49ers blow a team out of the water, defeating opponents by more than a touchdown or two. San Francisco has only won by 20 points or more four times through the regular season and the playoffs. When the 49ers win, they usually win by around 16 points—so around two touchdowns.
Who wins the Super Bowl?
But that average is skewed by the four victories of 20 points or more. San Francisco crushed the New York Jets by 34 points and manhandled the Buffalo Bills by 42 points. If you exclude those two victories, the 49ers only win by around 12 points each time.
San Francisco has won five games this year in the seven-to-12-point range—more than any other range that you could bet on. While pondering that, also take into consideration that the average loss by the Ravens is by 10 points—although they have yet to lose in that point range.
This game could easily come down to one touchdown in either direction, and it would be smart to put your money on the 49ers winning by around seven points.
Baltimore Ravens: 1 to 6 Points (4/1)
The Ravens just love winning close games. Whether it’s a last-minute touchdown drive or a field goal in overtime, Baltimore just loves giving fans heart attacks. That’s sure to be the case if you put your money on the Ravens winning by less than one touchdown.
How many points will Baltimore win by?
Baltimore tends to win by smaller margins compared to its opponent, with an average victory coming by 11 points. But just like the 49ers’ numbers, there are some outliers. Baltimore won two games this year by 30 or more points, while every other win was by less than 20.
The Ravens defeated the New England Patriots in the regular season by just one point and later beat the Dallas Cowboys by two points. On four occasions throughout Baltimore’s regular season and playoff run, it won by three points. Clearly, if the Ravens are going to win, it’s going to be a close one.
San Francisco 49ers: 1 to 6 Points (7/2)
The Ravens and 49ers are two very evenly-matched teams and the game is bound to go down to the wire. Either someone is going to make a big play late in the game, or a team will capitalize on someone’s missed fortune—like a kicker missing a potential game-winning kick.
Would David Akers be successful on a late-game field goal attempt?
The 49ers have won a handful of games throughout the year by 10 points or fewer, but only one has come by six points or fewer. That game just happened to be the one San Francisco just played, taking down the Atlanta Falcons 28-24 in the NFC Championship Game.
But while an extremely close win for the 49ers is rare, an extremely close loss for the Ravens is actually quite common. Baltimore lost four regular season games by six points or fewer this year. If the Ravens are going to lose, it’s going to be by a slim margin.
David Akers hasn’t been especially good this year with the 49ers. In fact, he’s been pretty much as bad as it gets. His 69 percent field-goal percentage is going to be running through his mind all game long. But this game could easily come down to one kick by him. If he nails it, he’s going to make a lot of people a lot richer.
*All odds were obtained via Bovada.lv.*