Robert Guerrero and Canelo Alvarez are the leading candidates to fight Floyd Mayweather, Jr. on May 4, according to ESPN. If Mayweather is on his game, he'll beat either man, but Guerrero is the most deserving of the opportunity.
In 2012, he defeated Selcuk Aydin and Andre Berto, and both fights were competitive affairs that proved Guerrero's mettle at 147 pounds. Alavarez is undefeated, but his biggest wins to date have come over an ancient Shane Mosley and an overmatched Josesito Lopez.
He has the name recognition and following, but the resume is lacking.
Alavrez fights at 154 pounds, and while Mayweather has had success at that weight twice, he has always looked better at welterweight.
Factoring in Guerrero's superior opponents and the more friendly weight class, he is easily the right choice for Mayweather. His reward for being a better match will be strictly monetary, because a victory is unlikely.
Some people may be encouraged by Guerrero's rough-and-tumble performance against Berto, but Money May is a different animal.
Sure, Berto attempted to employ the shoulder-roll defense, but the brilliance isn't in the style; it's in the man employing it. Berto lacks the defensive instincts to utilize the shoulder roll the way Mayweather does.
He is far better suited as an offense-first fighter, and he was more effective against Guerrero when he fought that way.
Unless Mayweather's reflexes have taken a noticeable dip—which isn't a completely preposterous notion—Guerrero will find it far more difficult to land solid shots.
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The one thing that may also surprise Guerrero is Mayweather's strength on the inside. Guerrero was able to bully Berto and take away his space to operate. Thus, it reduced the speed advantage Berto possessed.
Mayweather is deceptively strong, and he holds his ground in the middle of the ring well. He knows when to move his feet, and his pot shots will disrupt Guerrero's attempts to make the fight a brawl.
Should this fight come to fruition, it will be a competitive affair, but Mayweather is too strong, fast and skilled for Guerrero. That said, Guerrero has earned the payday.