Super Bowl Kickoff Time 2013: Trends to Know Before Making Final Bets

Tim KeeneyContributor IJanuary 30, 2013

ATLANTA, GA - JANUARY 20:  Quarterback Colin Kaepernick #7 of the San Francisco 49ers runs the ball against cornerback Asante Samuel #22 of the Atlanta Falcons in the second quarter in the NFC Championship game at the Georgia Dome on January 20, 2013 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Betting is all about knowing the numbers. 

Sure, you may think you have Alicia Keys' timing on the National Anthem figured out, or you may have a gut feeling about blue Gatorade being used on whatever lucky Harbaugh comes out a victor, but I assure you there are better bets. 

In fact, with the Super Bowl being such a massive event, there are literally hundreds of better options for you to put your hard-earned money on. 

Let's take a look at a few that are made crystal clear by breaking down the numbers. 


Kickoff: Sunday, February 3, at 6:30 p.m. ET

Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans


Live Stream:


Total Sacks

A lot of talk over the past week has been about Aldon Smith's sack drought, and according to the dynamic rusher himself, there's a valid explanation (via Pro Football Talk):

Aldon Smith blames sack drought on double and triple teams

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) January 29, 2013

I'm not exactly sure I believe that the man who has an NFL-record 33.5 sacks in his first two seasons hasn't seen double teams before, but that's an argument for another day. 

The fact of the matter is simple: Smith's sack drought has reached five games, and in those contests, the 49ers have recorded just five total QB takedowns.

Conversely, the Ravens have recorded just eight sacks in their last five contests and will have the added task of trying to wrap up a mobile quarterback in Colin Kaepernick.

There are a bevy of talented pass-rushers in this one, but under 4.5 seems like the way to go here. 


Total Points

For most, the thought of "Baltimore vs. San Francisco" undoubtedly evokes belief that Super Bowl XLVII will be a defensive battle.

And it's not difficult to see why. 

The Ravens have been the best defensive team of the past decade while the 49ers' recent rise back to to the top of the NFL has been thanks to a hard-nosed, defensive-minded approach. 

It's time to take advantage of those conceptions. 

San Francisco's last six games have all gone "over" and nine of their 10 contests since the bye week have done the same. The Niners haven't exactly been an immovable force on defense, but Kaepernick's emergence has simultaneously turned them into an offensive powerhouse, somewhat changing their identity. 

The same goes for the Ravens—they have taken a step back defensively this year while Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and a talented receiving corps can move the ball with ease when they are clicking. 

Take the "over" on 47 total points. 


Colin Kaepernick Rushing Yards

Since Kaepernick took over as QB back in Week 9, he has rushed for more than 55.5 yards—the line for Sunday—three times.

He has slipped under that mark seven times. 

So what's going on?

Kaepernick is still gaining yards against the Packers, that's what's going on.

The dynamic QB's 181-yard effort against Green Bay in the divisional round boosted his rushing yards per game average in his past 10 all the way up to 50.6. If you remove that outlier, however, he's averaging just 36.1 yards per game on the ground. 

Throw in the fact that Baltimore has held mobile quarterbacks such as Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III to 34 yards each, and 55.5 seems like an incredibly high line. 

Kaepernick certainly has the speed and playmaking ability to crush that number depending how the game plays out, but smart money is on the "under" here.