Super Bowl XLVII: The (Lucky) Seven Most Awesome Prop Bets on the Vegas Board
A recent Marketing Daily survey says 39 percent of people who watch the Super Bowl say TV ads are their favorite part of the game.
The game itself?
Only 28 percent.
Not addressed in the survey is my top reason for tuning in: The Props!
Wagering on these is no different than throwing darts in a crowded bar blindfolded (See: it will likely end badly). Simply put, Vegas linemakers are smarter than NASA, MIT and Skip Bayless combined.
That kid who said he can see dead people?
Linemakers crush that: They can somehow see the future.
So for all of you compulsive types who aren’t satisfied enough with the commercials, Ray Lewis (did you hear? He’s retiring!), the Harbaugh brothers (who just passed the Kardashians on the overexposed scale) and Kaepernicking (Will Ferrell did this long ago in Anchorman and got NO credit), here’s ten prop bets sure to scratch that itch:
How will the opening coin toss land?
Tails never fails…unless you’ve been betting on this mantra the past four Super Bowls (all heads). Before that run, tails ruled 10 of the previous 12 Super Bowls. However, no side of the coin has ever reeled off five straight, um, victories, so tails appears to be overdue.
Will Beyoncé's hair be straight or curly/crimped at the beginning of the halftime show?
Curly/crimped: Even Money
Beyoncé’s monster success if partly due to her ability to adapt to any situation: One day, it’s a provocative postage stamp for an outfit. Next day, she’s lip-synching at the inauguration looking as regal as a first lady. That said, Mrs. Z’s hair was straight for Obama’s big day, so the thought process is for curly here to keep everyone off-balance.
Total number of different 49ers to score
Over 3.5: -130
Under 3.5: +110
This includes the kicker (Akers), so we’re looking at three different Niners hitting paydirt here. Given what we’ve seen during SF’s last two playoff games, it’s a lock Gore scores, Davis gets one and Crabtree, Kaepernick, James, Hunter, Dixon, or the defense leads us to three. At -130 ($130 bet gets you back your original $130, plus $100.00), it’s a nice investment.
Time it takes Alicia Keys to sing the National Anthem: Two minutes, 15 seconds
OVER! OVER! Keys already tells EXTRA she’s planning a “unique version” of the song. And when something’s unique, it’s generally bigger (in this case, longer) than the original. Let’s not also discount Keys simply flying to Vegas this week and betting seven figures ON HERSELF to go over 2:15. In the words of Harry Carey, “I would do it. Wouldn’t you?”
Who will have more?
Frank Gore, touchdowns +0.5: +105
Lionel Messi, goals vs. Valencia, -0.5: -125
If you agree with the assertion above that Gore will get at least one TD, you therefore would have to believe Messi will tally two (when giving Gore that ½ touchdown). Messi has 33 goals in 21 games (about 1.5 goals/game) this season, so root hard for #21 wearing pads to cross that goal line, or else this is almost a guaranteed loser.
The largest lead of the game by either team will be …
Over 14.0 points: -120 (wager $120 to win $100)
Under 14.0 points: Even Money (What you bet is what you get back if you win)
La-la-love the under here. San Fran’s 17-point deficit in Atlanta (NFC Championship) notwithstanding, both teams seem to always play close games. Each defense is healthy and sound, both offenses more run-oriented than passing-minded (despite both quarterbacks coming in red hot).
Unlike the 80s, where every Super Bowl but two were decided by double-digits, the big game has rarely featured blowouts in the past decade (the last eight have been decided in the 4th quarter, the last five in the final four minutes). This one just feels like it stays close throughout.
How many times will the game be referred to as Harbaugh Bowl, Har Bowl, or Super Baugh during the game?
Over 2.5: -110
Under 2.5 -110
Jim Nantz calls the game with Phil Simms. These guys will dabble in dry humor, but aren't the best in the business for nothing and therefore will play it straight. Nantz in particular is a wordsmith, believes in word economy and therefore won’t go to Har-anything more than once. This is my favorite prop on the board (which means, as my friends will tell you, GO OPPOSITE!).
They may exist in the NBA Finals, World Series and Stanley Cup Finals…
But they don’t get remotely the attention the Super Bowl offerings do.
And that’s perfect for a country that increasingly cares less about one other small aspect of the game…
Like, you know…who actually wins.
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