No. 1 Kansas (19-1, RPI: 2) vs. No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun Auto Bid)
Please see the final slide for a more in-depth analysis of the No. 1 seeds.
No. 8 Wisconsin (14-6, RPI: 43) vs. No. 9 Memphis (16-3, RPI: 50)
Road games this week against Ohio State and Illinois could drop Wisconsin into the Last Five In for next week's bracket. By the way, there's absolutely zero evidence that it's harder to win on the road in the Big Ten than in any other conference. Just throwing that out there.
In the span of three days, Marshall lost to Southern Miss by 56 and played Memphis to within one point. I'm officially concerned that Memphis could miss the tournament altogether.
No. 5 UNLV (16-4, RPI: 16) vs. No. 12 Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt Auto Bid)
Eleven days ago, I argued that the Rebels might not lose another game, and they promptly lost the next game they played. I'm ready to make that claim again, and if they lose at home to Nevada, it's safe to say that I'm a curse.
UNLV is only going to get better as Anthony Bennett grows into a more consistent and more assertive presence in the paint.
No. 4 Michigan State (17-4, RPI: 12) vs. No. 13 Akron (MAC Auto Bid)
The Spartans still have three home games left against Michigan, Minnesota and Indiana. It isn't hard to picture them getting a No. 2 seed with all of those opportunities to enhance their resume. However, I'm getting a bit of a fraudulent vibe from them, and I think they're more likely to drop to a No. 7 than to move up from here.
No. 6 Ole Miss (17-2, RPI: 33) vs. No. 11 Southern Miss (17-4, RPI: 42)
Marshall Henderson won't win the Wooden Award, but he wins the Miller Award for player you have to watch every chance you get. The guy is averaging 11 attempted three-pointers per game. What more do you need to know?
The Eagles are 0-4 against the RPI Top 100, but they've all been close games and they've all been played away from home. I think their worst-case scenario is a 15-1 record in C-USA, which would almost certainly earn them an at-large bid.
No. 3 Indiana (18-2, RPI: 14) vs. No. 14 Harvard (Ivy Auto Bid)
I don't care if they're ranked third in the polls, the Hoosiers' RPI and SOS is not indicative of a top-two seed. Those computer numbers will certainly improve as the season progresses, but it's more than likely that their loss total will increase along with it.
No. 7 VCU (16-5, RPI: 40) vs. No. 10 Colorado (14-6, RPI: 21)
Back-to-back losses to Richmond and La Salle have put VCU's ceiling at a No. 5 seed, and that's only if they don't lose another game between now and Selection Sunday.
Colorado's RPI seems too good to be true, but the Pac-12 is strong enough that we'll be able to judge the Buffaloes by their play rather than their computer profile. By February 17, I suspect we'll know whether or not this is a tournament-caliber team.
No. 2 Miami (15-3, RPI: 3) vs. No. 15 Northeastern (Colonial Auto Bid)
Reggie Johnson is working his way back to health, and Shane Larkin/Durand Scott might be the best backcourt in the nation. That statement alone should be worth about 25 comments, but I stand by it.