I've brought you here today because we sit on the eve of one of the greatest events in the entire wrestling year, the Royal Rumble.
And while all week you've no doubt been inundated by countless previews and predictions and all that jazz, I have been able to separate the entire roster of the WWE (and likely potential surprise entrants,) into four categories.
Category 1 is "Yeah, Probably" and includes everyone with better than 10/1 odds. Category 2 is "Not So Much" and includes everyone with better than 20/1 odds. Category 3 is "Not Unless Everyone Else Gets Hit By a Bus" and includes everyone with better than 100/1 odds. And Category 4 is "Ahahahahahahahaha No," which includes everyone else.
By keeping an eye on these categories and the logical advice they offer, you should be in great shape to win whatever bets that your friends force on you.
And if using the advice and reasoning contained here results in you winning millions of dollars from back-alley gambling rings, don't forget to cut your boy a little taste. I'd hate to have to rat you out to the mob.
Category 1: Yeah, Probably
The Undertaker—2/1 if he enters
CM Punk—3/1 if he enters
The Rock—3/1 if he enters
Brock Lesnar—8/1 if he enters
Batista—8/1 if he enters
Triple H—8/1 if he enters
Basically here's the deal on the Royal Rumble this year. The smart money is on John Cena or Ryback if things just shake out normally and there are no mega surprise entrants.
For Cena it's a simple matter of being John Cena and potential feuds with pretty much anyone else who might hold the title around WrestleMania season. For Ryback it's about reestablishing his dominance and locking down the SmackDown title shot.
And Orton is biding his time at 9/1 with the possibility of a big feud with Sheamus looming and there being an easy possibility that that is for the title.
Now, if any surprises occur, then the entire game changes. If The Undertaker shows up here, there's virtually no way that he doesn't win the thing, because there's really no other reason for him to show up. Punk and Rock are both here on the possibility that either loses the title match and enters the Rumble for another chance.
If the title match goes on after the Rumble, then this obviously won't take place. The others are about what you'd expect.
Category 2: Not So Much
The Big Show—18/1
It's not that the people in Category 2 couldn't win the Royal Rumble. In fact, guys who would have been considered a part of Category 2 have won the thing two years in a row now.
But if we're playing a pure odds game, then it'd be a stretch to actually bet on them. For Sheamus it's entirely possible that he could win the Rumble for a second year in a row and brag about that forever, as SmackDown's title scene is incredibly fluid and unpredictable at this point.
It's similarly possible that Ziggler could win, but it isn't even remotely likely as he's been handed a whole mess of platitudes in a short time, (main event a pay-per-view, MITB contract, stable of his own, feud with Cena,) and it just isn't likely that he wins here as well.
I'm seeing other places giving him 3/1 odds, and that's just woefully naive. I'll take 1/1 odds that he stays in the Rumble at least a half hour, but he's not winning.
As for Miz and Show, both are guys who are unlikely to win, but there's a certain possibility there due to what they represent for WWE.
Show is a giant who has never won, and him winning would not only be a reward for his years of service, but would also go a long way to reestablishing big guys as a threat in these things, since they never actually win.
Whereas The Miz is someone who they have been clearly presenting as super important and all over every show, and even if he's in the midcard now, he's the kind of shock victory, (with slight mainstream notoriety,) that I could see winning in a shocking moment.
It's hardly a lock or anything, but if you were looking for those you're in the wrong category.
Category 3: Not Unless Everyone Else Gets Fired
Alberto Del Rio—20/1 if he enters
Chris Jericho—20/1 if he enters
Mark Henry—20/1 if he enters
John Morrison—30/1 if he enters
Christian—80/1 if he enters
I need to be perfectly clear at this point. Nobody from Category 3 or 4 is going to win this match. They just aren't.
Go ahead and get mad and spout off whatever half-baked arguments for them that you want, but the fact is that there's no historical evidence or current momentum to suggest that any of these people have a prayer of sniffing a Royal Rumble victory. But the people in Category 3 will at least be highlighted in the match itself and will be made to look like they could win, even though they won't.
The lineup here is about what you'd expect with those restrictions. A bunch of guys who are either embroiled in midcard tag teams or who have never held a World title and aren't likely to start just yet. As a group collectively, you could call this the "We'll get our pushes in May" crew.
Category 4: Ahahahahaha No
The Great Khali—1,000/1
Every Other Member of the Roster—1,000,000/1
NXT Tournament Winner Bo Rotundo—2,000,000/1
Zack Ryder—Eleventy Billion/1
Shelton Benjamin—100/1 if he enters
Carlito—100/1 if he enters
Evan Bourne—200/1 if he enters
Ahahahahahaha no. But fair game on which of these people will be eliminated the most humorously.
Now take these tips and march forward into history, confidant in the knowledge that you will soon own the money of anyone who thinks Daniel Bryan is winning this.