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Oregon demolished the Kansas State Wildcats in the Fiesta Bowl in January just before Alabama demolished Notre Dame in the BCS national championship game.
Through the Saban years, Alabama has proved that it has trouble with quick-paced spread/option offenses on the first encounter. In 2008, the Tide lost to the Florida Gators led by Tim Tebow. The Tide avenged that loss in 2009 in the same game.
In 2011, then-FCS No. 3 Georgia Southern brought the option offense to Tuscaloosa and forced the Tide starters to stay in the game into the fourth quarter. Georgia Southern's 21 points were the most scored against the Alabama in any game that year.
The 2012 season brought Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel to Tuscaloosa, and the Tide made just enough mistakes to allow the Aggies to win. In 2013, the Tide may successfully avenge that loss as well, but that's just speculation.
Oregon brings one of the fastest-paced offenses to the table, and it's built on misdirection and capitalization on what the defense gives it. Quarterback Marcus Mariota would need to grow up quickly, but Alabama's defense proved that it was capable of being outplayed in the 2012 season.
If this game were played 10 times, Alabama would probably win seven or eight of them. However, Saban's track record proves that one of the losses would be in the first game these two played.
Despite Oregon's record against the SEC, the 2012 season proved that Alabama would have trouble with the Ducks. Maybe that won't be true in 2013, but as of this evaluation, Oregon would get out to a big lead that the Tide could not overcome before the final whistle.
Final verdict: Oregon 24, Alabama 22