The Green Bay Packers are seldom an NFL underdog, and they don't appreciate that it is happening again in their NFC divisional playoff game at San Francisco.
The last 16 times the Packers were an underdog, they bit hard to the tune of 12-3-1 ATS, turning a steady profit for bettors. And the betting line continues to inch downwards as the public continues to back Green Bay at most sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark.com.
The point spread opened at -3 for the 49ers, but moved to -2.5 as of Thursday and was expected to fall further. Bettors continued to expect that Aaron Rodgers would exact revenge for his Week 1 home loss to these same 49ers.
The Niners will try for a repeat of that winning performance when they host the Packers for an NFC divisional round playoff game Saturday night at The Stick (8 p.m. ET, Fox).
But they face a team that has dominated them at home, as Green Bay owns a 6-0-1 ATS mark in seven visits to The Bay, according to the playoff trends report.
San Fran, after losing the NFC championship game in overtime last year to the Giants, won the NFC West this season, going 11-4-1. The Niners posted five two-game winning streaks this season, interspersed by losses to the Vikings, Giants, Rams and Seahawks and a tie with St. Louis.
San Francisco completed its regular season with a 27-13 victory over Arizona two weeks ago, claiming the No. 2 seed in the NFC thanks to Green Bay's Week 17 loss to Minnesota.
Along the way, the Niners made a change at quarterback, sitting a then-injured Alex Smith in favor of second-year pro Colin Kaepernick. San Fran went 6-2-1 with Smith and 5-2 with Kaepernick.
Green Bay started 2-3 this season with that home loss to the Niners, that blown-call defeat in Seattle and a blown-lead loss at Indianapolis. The Packers then proceeded to win nine of their next 10 games before losing their regular-season finale at Minnesota 37-34 on a field goal as time expired.
The NFC North champs then got a little revenge on the Vikings last weekend, beating them in the Wild-Card game at Lambeau 24-10.
In a bit of intrigue on the San Francisco side, the Niners have signed K Billy Cundiff, who may replace the struggling David Akers. Cundiff is the guy who missed a short field goal for Baltimore that would have sent last year's AFC Championship Game into overtime.
In their Week 1 win at Green Bay, the Niners basically dominated, out-rushing the Packers 186-45 and holding the ball for 33 minutes. Green Bay only scored after falling behind 10-0, then on a punt return and finally when trailing 30-15 late in the fourth quarter.
Before that game, the Packers had beaten San Francisco eight times in a row.
On the NFL futures market, sportsbooks were listing San Francisco at 11/5 to win the NFC championship and 6/1 to win Super Bowl XLVII, while Green Bay is getting 3/1 to win the NFC and 6/1 to win the Super Bowl.
NFC Playoff Pick: The Niners had last week off and are playing at home, but sometimes that off week can hurt more than help. The Packers, meanwhile, look to be rolling like they did two seasons ago during their Super Bowl run. We take Green Bay plus the points. (courtesy of PickShark.com)
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