That's not necessarily a bad thing. Swisher has had high on-base percentages the last two years and certainly would create scoring situations for the middle of this lineup by getting on base. If Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko rebound to their pre-2007 averages, this lineup won't miss Swisher's production in the middle of it. He won't steal 50 bases like Owens can, but he ultimately could be the better leadoff option.
If Owens is healthy, I can see him hitting around .270 with a relatively low on-base percentage for a leadoff hitter. Like I said earlier, he can steal 50+ bases and having him leading off would mean Swisher would get a lot more RBI opportunities.
Owens reminds me a lot of Juan Pierre in that he has good speed but doesn't hit the ball with authority and has a noodle arm in center or left. However, Owens, isn't nearly as good of a bunter as Pierre is, a skill that the Dodgers outfielder frequently uses to get on base.
I don't know what to make of Owens yet. I'm not sold that he's a starter, but I'm also not sold that he's just a fourth outfielder. If he frequents the disabled list, he certainly can't be considered an everyday starter, but if he hits the way he did after getting recalled from the minors for the second time last year, he's worthy of starting and leading off. I guess only time will tell as to what role Owens fits.
Hitting second in this lineup will be Orlando Cabrera, one of the best No. 2 hitters in baseball. Cabrera is proficient at hitting the ball to right field and sacrificing himself for the big boppers in the middle of the order.
While I'd be shocked if Cabrera hits over .300 again, I do think he'll hit around .280 and do an excellent job of moving runners over when he has to while playing slick defense at shortstop.
Jim Thome will hit third, although that may change against lefties if he continues to struggle against them. If healthy, Thome still can hit 30-35 home runs with one of the better on-base percentages in the league, but it's unreasonable to expect 500 at-bats from Thome at this point in his career.
If he can play in about 140 games and pick up around 450 at-bats, I'd be happy with his performance. The offense will be there for Thome–it's just a matter of whether or not he can stay off the disabled list.
Paul Konerko's mysterious drop in production last year was a huge reason why this linuep struggled so much. After hitting 35 or more home runs and driving in 100 or more runs from 2004-06, Konerko hit 31 home runs, had 90 RBI, and hit just .259 in 2007.
I don't think Konerko will hit at that clip again in 2008. I expect him to return and hit around .280/35/100 as the Sox cleanup hitter this year.
Jermaine Dye also saw a huge dropoff in production in 2007, hitting just .254 with 28 home runs and 78 RBI. While I don't think Dye will ever match his 2006 numbers of .315/44/12, I do expect him to hit about as well as he did in 2005, when he hit .274 with 31 home runs and 86 RBI.
AJ Pierzynski also saw his batting average take a massive hit last year, dropping from .295 to .263. I also think he'll see a rebound in his batting average and hit around .275 out of the sixth, seventh, or eighth spot in this lineup depending on where Swisher is hitting and if Joe Crede can produce.
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