Buehrle is one of the most consistent starting pitchers in the game today. Seven innings and no more than four runs is the norm for Buehrle, who saw his win total drop to just ten last year due to the White Sox struggles on offense and in the bullpen.
With an offense that doesn't mysteriously slump and a bullpen that has a much stronger bridge to Bobby Jenks, expect Buehrle to win around 15 games with that same ERA hovering around 3.50.
Vazquez is my sleeper pick to win 20 games this year. Despite all the problems the White Sox had in 2007, Vazquez still managed to go 15-7 with a 3.74 ERA and 213 strikeouts.
The key with Vazquez is comfort. He never was comfortable in New York, Arizona, or even in his first year with the White Sox. Why? He was either being criticized or mentioned in trade rumors and never was able to settle down.
That all changed when the White Sox gave him a three-year, $34.5 million extension on March 6 of 2007. It wasn't a coincidence that Vazquez turned out his best season since his Montreal days with his comfortable new contract.
Now that he's firmly settled in with the White Sox, don't be surprised if Vazquez keeps on pitching like he did with the Expos. This time, though, he has a quality offense to back him up, so 20 wins and an ERA around 3.50 is not out of the question.
The White Sox know what they're going to get out of Buehrle and Vazquez. The overall success of this rotation (and the team, for that matter) will depend on John Danks, Jose Contreras, and Gavin Floyd.
Danks was pretty good in the first half of 2007 before the league caught up to him in the second half of the year. He finished the year an unimpressive 6-13 with a 5.50 ERA but will be just 23 on April 15.
The addition of a cutter to Danks' repertoire could do wonders for him. If he can learn from Buehrle about how to bust hitters in with a cutter, Danks really could take off. Remember, he wasn't even slated to pitch in the majors last year–but he won a spot in the rotation out of spring training and completely skipped the usual stint at AAA.
Danks certainly has the stuff to be a very good pitcher in this league, from a low 90's fastball that he throws with pretty good accuracy to a devastating curveball to an above-average changeup. Once he learns how to pitch and utilize those pitches and his cutter, he'll be good. And that could happen as soon as this year.
As you can tell, I'm pretty high on Danks. I'm not so high on Contreras and Floyd.
Contreras went from being one of the best pitchers in baseball from the All-Star breaks of 2005 to 2006 to being one of the worst pitchers in baseball from the All-Star break of 2006 to the end of 2007.
Things would usually start to go south for Contreras when he relied on dropping down and throwing three-quarters or sidearm. His fastball had a tendency to either completely miss the strike zone or run right down the middle and his splitter had significantly less drop than if he was throwing over the top.
The key for Contreras is to throw over the top and occasionally mix in a sidearm fastball to keep hitters off balance. However, even if he does that, I don't see him regaining the magic he had going for him down the stretch in 2005.
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