The Sweet 16 is upon us. Let's take a quick look at where these teams sat in the AP Preseason Top 25, released on November 5. Teams in bold are still alive.
(Note: Western Kentucky did not recieve any top 25 votes):
1. North Carolina
2. UCLA
3. Memphis
4. Kansas
5. Georgetown
6. Louisville
7. Tennessee
8. Michigan State
9. Indiana
10. Washington State
11. Marquette
12. Oregon
13. Duke
14. Gonzaga
15. Texas
16. Texas A&M
17. Arizona
18. USC
19. Arkansas
20. Kentucky
21. North Carolina State
22. Pittsburgh
23. Stanford
24. Southern Illinois
25. Kansas State
Other Recieving Votes (high to low): Villanova, Ohio State, Butler, Syracuse, Clemson, Xavier, Connecticut, Davidson, Mississippi State, Florida, West Virginia, Virginia, Virginia Commonwealth, Norte Dame, Wisconsin, etc.
If you want a real Cinderalla team, look closely at Bo Ryan's Wisconsin Badgers.
You may question my using of the word "Cinderella" with a team that was given a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. How could a team that won the Big Ten regular season and conference tournament be considered a true Cinderalla?
Looking back at the preseason in the first week of November, the Wisconsin Badgers were nowhere to be seen.
A year removed from Alando Tucker's greatness and Kammron Taylors ability to effectively run Bo Ryan's swing offense, the Badgers were projected to be in a rebuilding stage, projected to finish in the middle half of the Big Ten conference.
Ranked 40th in the nation, sitting merely at the latter part of the "Other's Recieving Votes Category" in the AP's Poll, the Badgers had no business to think about a trip to San Antonio.
They started the season ranked below Davidson, whom they are playing Friday night and below 39 other teams, many of which ended up in the NIT.
But now, facing a 10th-seeded Davidson, Michael Flowers and the Wisconsin Badgers have set their sights straight, on going to the Alamo Dome.
Perhaps one of the more unpredicatable teams this year in college basketball, the Badgers will put Bo Ryan's swing offense to the test on Friday night.
The big match-up will be the high-flying sophomore from Davidson, Stephen Curry, up against the best lock-down defender in the nation, Michael Flowers. Flowers was not even the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, nor was Bo Ryan the Big Ten Coach of the Year.
The Badgers will set out on Friday night not trying to earn any respect, but trying to play hard-nosed basketball and come out on top Friday night, earning them a trip to the Elite Eight.
Saturday, the media will be all over the Badgers and how they won't be able to control the tempo of the Kansas Wildcats, and won't give the Badgers a chance to earn a trip to the Final Four.
But just wait. The Badgers defense style of play, and their hard-nosed swing offense will earn them a trip to the Final Four.
Therefore, the Wisconsin Badgers will be the only team to start the season unranked and be seen playing in San Antonio.
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3 months ago
Excellent take! Based on the pre-season, they are a Cinderella, and that's something we need to look at more often to hold prognosticators accountable. Heck, a lot of people think they had a team that's successful picked higher than they actually did, and it's time to call out the delusions of people who make these exclamations as though they are an authority and then they don't come true. (A perfect example of this is how often the blowhards on PTI say "100%" or "squadoosh," as Tony Reali calls 0%, about stuff in the "Oddsmakers" segments and end up being wrong. If you understand these figures, you can NEVER be wrong on them, but like much of the country, that knucklehead Reali rewards their misguided boldness by declaring the one with the most of them winners EVERY time!) Coming strong means nothing if you are wrong!
Sorry, kinda went on a rant there, but your article touched on a huge flaw in these forecasters, and that's why I'm adding you to my line-up!
3 months ago
Don't have much to add other than to second MJ's comment that you've found a good way to bring up a new perspective on an over-used term ("Cinderella.")
Good work here - keep the unique ideas coming!
3 months ago
An interesting perspective.
By this metric, wouldn't the 2005-2006 Florida Gators be a Cinderella team for all time? Those gators began the poll by receiving a scant 7 votes in the AP.
It should be duly noted that they won it all as a 3 seed, much like these Badgers are seeded.
Also, no one, I mean, no one, should be surprised if they win it all. The badgers have some lock-down D (first in the country overall in terms of points per possession) and an adequate offense to get them to San Antonio.
3 months ago
I think this is just further proof that human voters and human polls are worthless. Not that we didn't already know that. Anyone that underestimates Bo Ryan as a coach shouldn't have a vote in any poll.
Sorry, they're not a Cinderella.
3 months ago
Great read and great comments.
Very true about the Gators, Ben. I think a lot of people forget that Gator team came out of nowhere.
That said, I would be shocked if the Badgers win the whole thing, or even get to the finals. The defense is great, but I don't think they have enough firepower.
from 3 months ago
Fine, fine. FORCE me to point out that, under log5 methodology, Wisconsin is estimated to have a 20% chance of getting to the finals - just behind the big dogs, Kansas and UCLA.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=275
3 months ago
Stats aside, can they slow down Kansas and/or UNC?
from 3 months ago
Can they slow down Kansas? Absolutely. Will they? If I knew that, then I wouldn't be just doing this on the side, would I? As for UNC, let's see them win tonight first.
3 months ago
I think "let's see them win..." is the operative phrase to use when dissecting any potential matchups.
In the climate of today's NCAA, any of these 16 teams is capable of winning one more game. While unlikely, an all-Wildcat Villanova/Davidson regional final wouldn't be jaw-dropping. Villanova seems to be the team being least projected to win a game this weekend, and probably had the easiest draw to get here. But the reality is that if KU comes out a little cold, Nova has the talent to hang. Scottie Reynolds and Stephen Curry are both capable of shouldering the load to win one ball game, in any scenario.
Using the eyeball test, having watched a ton of games this year, I still think Kansas is the best team in America. But in this year's field, it's really hard to quantify any reasoning to make such a claim.
And we all know that the title doesn't go to a team that is somehow deemed champion; it goes to whichever team can end the year on a six-game win streak.
I am beyond excited to see how this weekend plays out.
3 months ago
Your view on Cinderella is obviously skewed because Wisconsin isn't even close to a Cinderella. They were not picked to win the Big Ten, they were behind Michigan State and Indiana. But their play throughout the season wauranted a number three seed in the tournament thus negating their early season rankings. It may be semantics, but you couldn't be more wrong.
3 months ago
idiots..not a cinderella, at least not to the people that actually follow the team. They have been a top contender in the big 10 for the past 7 years since bo ryan became coach, (btw..best coach in the country) and our only significant loss coming into this year was alando tucker. sure he was an all american last year, but he really wasn't as good as people thought him out to be. yea its tough to lose a player that scored 25 points a game, but it was obvious that trevon hughes and jason bohanon were going to be able to pick up those lost points, not to mention flowers who everyone knew would continue to dominate on the defensive side...anyone to even think that we're a cinderella is out of their minds. please, before you write on a message board saying they are cinderella, know what you're talking about.
from 3 months ago
Justin,
First off for someone that follows the Badgers, Kammron Taylor was a significant lose a team-leader starting point guard, averaging nearly 15 points a game. What does that mean that Alando Tucker wasn't really as good as people thought he would be?
How was it obvious that Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon (learn to spell the names of the players to establish some credibility) were going to pick up the slack? Trevon Hughes averaged 7.7 minutes per game last year as a freshman and only average 1.4 ppg. Trevon did not reach double figures in points once last season (freshman season high was 10 points).
If you would rather give more of the success to Bo Ryan for having players fit into his system, rather them tell me that you KNEW that J-Bo and Trevon Hughes were going to elevate their level of play, I would consider taking you seriously.
So Justin, let me ask you this.
If everyone knew that Wisconsin was going to have 31 wins this season, after losing a 1st team All-American, why would they be placed 40th in the preseason AP Poll?
from 3 months ago
Not that half of what Justin had to say was intelligent, but I'm curious why people bestow so much credibility upon the AP poll. At what point are people going to realize that these human polls are practically worthless? Half of the poll is accurate, and the other half is usually total garbage. The writers that vote in them generally are not considered basketball authorities of any sort. They're journalists. They report results. Some of them know a lot about a lot of teams. But generally speaking, they're not very familiar with most of the teams they vote for, and they're not very familiar with the X's and O's of the game. They know stats, who is returning, who departed, and last year's record for each team. Most journalists are only closely familiar with the teams they grew up rooting for and/or covering as a journalist. That's it.
The one thing of merit that Justin mentioned is the fact that Wisconsin is perennially a top Big Ten team, and Bo Ryan is considered one of the very best coaches alive. To underestimate a Wisconsin basketball team demonstrates bonafide stupidity by the voters. So to answer your question, "why did the voters place them 40th in the preseason poll?" Basically, because they don't know that much.
If the polls were interested at all in being accurate, they'd only have analysts and former players like Jay Bilas, et al vote in them.
3 months ago
Not to speak for the author, but my view of the piece was that it offered a different take on the use of the term "Cinderella."
Looking at the preseason poll provided in the article, Wisconsin was ranked around #45 (factoring in the "others receiving..." teams.) To break it down simply, the #45 team going into the tournament would be around an 11/12 seed.
If an 11 or 12 seed won the national title, it would be heralded as a "Cinderella" story. And at the beginning of the year, this is how the AP viewed the Badgers.
No one is saying they fit the classic definition of the Cinderella that comes out of nowhere in March - the Badgers came out of nowhere from the beginning of the year to now.
I'm not sure if the writers of the last two posts read anything other than the title of the piece.
3 months ago
I can see where JK's coming from. Any Cinderella is, in essence, a team that is much better than it is perceived to be. And year in, year out, Wisconsin is an afterthought in everyone's mind. Believe me, no one wants to play these guys. They are dangerous, apply constant and suffocating D (Pitt's D was a cakewalk for Mich State after facing Wisconsin a few times) and offensively efficient. They can stop ANYBODY. And while they're doing that, they quietly score on the other end of the court. Thank God that in basketball they let them play and don't rely completely on the idiots. Football...are you listening?
from 3 months ago
March Madness is fun and exciting and great, but as far as delivering a "true" national champion, it's about as successful as the BCS. Maybe even less so.
3 months ago
Jeff, I totally disagree--ONLY the BCS fails to deliver a true champion. One can make an argument that a bad draw costs a team to get as deep as they deserved to, but the team that wins the whole thing deserved it because they played best when it counted.
As for all those disputing Jeffrey's view of Wisconsin as a Cinderella, he explained that VERY well--his definition was based on their pre-season rank, and based on that, they are. For those disputing the validity of the pre-season polls, you're right on target...which I believe was also Jeffrey's point.
from 3 months ago
Of course the winner of the tournament is the recognized champion.
But you can't be serious if you think a one-and-done tournament is the best way to determine who's the best. Championship Week and March Madness are great - I love 'em. But they almost completely negate the entire regular season. At least the BCS rewards teams for proving it week after week after week, rather than rewarding a team that simply gets hot at the right time.
You shouldn't base anything on human polls. They've proven time and time again that they're worthless and the journalists that vote in them are generally speaking, uneducated. But if you want to make up your own personal definition for "Cinderella", I've no problem with that. Doesn't affect me at all. But basing any opinion or stance on the AP polls is automatically ridiculous on its face.
from 3 months ago
And I wasn't trying to be too argumentative, either. Just offering a minority perspective on the NCAA Tournament. I still love the big dance and always will. But if you really check out the results of past tournaments, you'll see that maybe 30% of the time, the team that wins is the consensus "best team" in America. That's why they call it Madness - because weird things happen in a one-and-done tournament.
I think the BCS has a better track record of getting the best teams in the big game - but the few controversial years are what everyone remembers. Auburn being left out, USC being left out, etc. More often than not in the end, the two teams on the field are the two that deserved it most. And it had nothing to do with getting hot at the very end of the season.
3 months ago
I guess for those who pay attention to the game as closely as we do (and I don't think that includes most the broadcasters I listen to), Wisconsin is a well-known contender with a hell of a coach who puts together a consistently excellent product. If you polled the average dude filling out his NCAA bracket though (and there's a lot of them) I think Wisconsin slips under the radar. What is a Cinderalla? Well that's a semantical question that I suppose we could argue about. What's an under-rated team? Well I think it's pretty clear the Wisconsin has been under-rated the last few years, given their continuing excellence in the big ten and beyond. However, I think that's starting the change. They've forced us to take note of them, particularly those of us who follow the big ten.
3 months ago
I guess for those who pay attention to the game as closely as we do (and I don't think that includes most the broadcasters I listen to), Wisconsin is a well-known contender with a hell of a coach who puts together a consistently excellent product. If you polled the average dude filling out his NCAA bracket though (and there's a lot of them) I think Wisconsin slips under the radar. What is a Cinderalla? Well that's a semantical question that I suppose we could argue about. What's an under-rated team? Well I think it's pretty clear the Wisconsin has been under-rated the last few years, given their continuing excellence in the big ten and beyond. However, I think that's starting the change. They've forced us to take note of them, particularly those of us who follow the big ten.
3 months ago
Oh and I do think that the tournament format rewards good seasons. It is MUCH easier to advance as a high seed as witnessed by these all-time first round numbers:
1. The #1 seed has beaten the #16 seed all 96 times (100%).
2. The #2 seed has beaten the #15 seed 92 times (96%).
3. The #3 seed has beaten the #14 seed 81 times (84%).
4. The #4 seed has beaten the #13 seed 79 times (82%).
5. The #5 seed has beaten the #12 seed 65 times (67%).
6. The #6 seed has beaten the #11 seed 66 times (69%).
7. The #7 seed has beaten the #10 seed 60 times (62%).
8. The #8 seed has beaten the #9 seed 44 times (46%).
Particularly, getting a top four seed is very beneficial. And man, if you're Villanova 85' and you fight all the way from the 8 and beat Georgetown in the finals...you've won the national title in my book. Does the best team always win? Well, I think you can say that the best team of the tournament won, whereas you can't say that of football bowl games. And really, what is the purpose of sport if not to let em' play and see what happens. I just don't like to leave everything in the hands of a TV ratings obsessed bureaucracy.
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