Every year in the NFL Draft, there is one quarterback that, seemingly out of nowhere, rises up the draft boards rapidly despite questions about their abilities at the next level.
They are not first overall, but they are always in the top half of the first round, only to end up out of the league in five years. This was the case for Vince Young, and looks like it will be the case for Blaine Gabbert.
In fact, watching Gabbert's rise through the draft immediately makes me think of what is happening with Mike Glennon. In a year without any elite quarterbacks, all of a sudden various NFL experts are putting him as a top quarterback in mock drafts.
Why is this the case? Why is a quarterback moving from no mock drafts to as high as first overall in a few? Why Glennon?
The reason is very simple. In fact, it's too simple. He has the prototypical size and strength to play quarterback in the NFL. Who else had ideal size?
Oh right, Matt Leinart and Gabbert did. Sure, size can help a quarterback see his receivers better over his offensive line, but it does not automatically make a great quarterback.
To go with his size, he has great arm strength, and while it is not a rocket arm, it is better than most of the prospects in this year's draft class, possibly the best. Working in a pro style system at NC State helps big time as well.
Glennon can also take a few big hits in the pocket without teams having to worry about him getting injured. Again, that's all well and good, but it does not automatically make a great quarterback.
The first thing many note on the weakness side is his utter lack of mobility. Athletic quarterbacks are becoming more the norm in the NFL, but I can look the other way on that as long as he can throw the ball well.
More than anything, an NFL quarterback needs excellent judgment and the ability to throw the ball both far and accurately. Here's where we get into Glennon's weaknesses.
When watching back tapes of him, I saw wide receivers, especially around the numbers, having to reach for balls even when they were not thrown that far downfield. His 58.5% completion percentage his senior year was on him, and I'd expect better at the college level.
Aside from that, his footwork just was not very good, and by extension it showed a lack of a pocket presence.
That, along with some of his judgment calls, could be blamed on an offensive line that had some bad games. Perhaps that is why some are looking the other way at his weaknesses.
When you are drafted high though, you will likely be playing for a team with a bad offensive line. If he could not work around that in college, he will not in the NFL, where defenses will be that much tougher.
Perhaps I am jumping the gun on him not being an NFL quarterback, but when I watch him against Florida State, Miami, and others, he just does not look that good as a quarterback. In fact, NC State upsetting Florida State surprises me in hindsight when I watch him.
If I am jumping the gun, then others are doing the same in making him a top three quarterback prospect. Yes, it is a poor QB class, but right now Glennon should not be in first round discussions.
The Senior Bowl later this month will likely mean more for him than anyone else. A good outing will cement his first round status, while a poor outing could justify those in my camp and send him on a downward spiral.
Unless he is coached very well in the NFL and gets put in an ideal situation, the team who drafts him in the first round will look back and regret it.