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Robert Griffin III had comically high expectations heading into the NFL, and somehow he's managed to meet them. As a result, he's garnered fame, attention and Subway commercials in the nation's capital.
But he's about to be outplayed by his Seahawks counterpart Russell Wilson in the Wild Card round.
That's largely because of the respective defenses they're facing—RGIII must contend with the league's fourth-best defense by Football Outsiders' DVOA contextual metric, while Wilson gets to face the pedestrian Redskins defense (17th in DVOA).
But that doesn't tell the whole story. In fact, by some metrics, the Seahawks QB has marginally outplayed his more-heralded counterpart.
Wilson is the eighth-best QB by ProFootballFocus's grading metrics—RGIII is ninth. Wilson is the sixth-ranked QB by Football Outsiders' DVOA and the eighth-ranked by their DYAR metric—RGIII is ranked eighth and 11th by those respective metrics. Of course, RGIII has the advantage in rushing, but that's somewhat mitigated by his ball-security issues— the Redskins' rookie had nine rushing fumbles this season.
In other words, these are two very evenly matched QBs, and one of them is facing a significantly tougher defense. Not that bold of a pick after all.
Prediction: Wilson completes 65 percent of his passes with three TDs (one rushing). RGIII completes 60 percent of his passes for two TDs (one rushing) and one INT.