The Projection Models aren’t nearly as kind to Zimmermann. ZiPS has him getting 131IP, 4.81-ERA, 1.47-WHIP, to go with 88 Ks. Things get even worse with CHONE, to the tune of: 82IP, 5.05-ERA, 1.55-WHIP, and 69Ks.
Conclusion of Sorts
Just because you draft Jordan Zimmermann doesn’t mean you have to keep him the entire year. Yahoo’s assessment that he’ll Cueto the situation is pretty on-point. I see Zimmermann having a slightly better ERA throughout the season, as Cincinnati is probably the last place you’d want a youngin’ to pitch this side of the Mississippi — Just ask Homer Bailey.
Zimmermann should dominate in his first month or so, and a mid-threes ERA isn’t out of the question. His K-Rate will probably fall in the 7 to 7.5-per-9 range, with a whip of around 1.30ish.
After the first three or four starts is when the fun will begin. Zimmermann’s definitely got low-4’s ERA potential in him to go along with a 1.35ish WHIP. A Solid 7K-per-9, and about 3.5BB-per-9, should keep him around the talented rookie standard of 2K-per-BB.
In shallow leagues where you can replace Zimmermann with a competant pitcher, by all means draft him for his upside. In deep leagues where you’re looking at replacing Zimmermann with someone that pitches for the Seattle Mariners, I’d hedge my bets by picking an innings eater.
Zimmerman projects out as a solid number-2 or spectacular number-3 guy, in just about any rotation — for you keeper league guys. Gil Meche-ish? Yah, I’m going with Gil-Meche-ish.
Just like Meche, Zimmerman is probably going to have to throw his slider and risk injury to remain a dominant strike-out pitcher. The knock on Zimmerman is no out-pitch, but he clearly has one and it’s his slider — The Nats just don’t want him using it all the time as they’d prefer he avoid the fate of Gil Meche and his two rotator cuff surgeries.
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