NFL Draft Order 2013: Overrated Prospects Teams Must Avoid Early in First Round
For 12 teams, the journey to Super Bowl XLVII begins this weekend. For the other 20 teams, the offseason preparations have already begun. One of the major tasks is always getting ready for the draft, which is key to building a strong roster.
Teams simply can't afford to swing and miss with their first pick. As the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Redskins have illustrated, the right pick can lead to an immediate turnaround. But the wrong pick can set the franchise back even further.
With that in mind, let's examine some prospects generating a lot of hype early in the draft process that shouldn't be selected in the first half of the opening round.
Mike Glennon, QB, NC State
It's easy to see why talent evaluators would be attracted to Glennon. The Wolfpack quarterback has ideal size a 6'6'' and possesses the arm strength necessary to succeed at the next level. It's a combination that will always draw attention.
However, if you look at the top QBs at the next level, accuracy reigns supreme. Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan tied for the league lead with a 69 percent completion rate, and most of the other big names followed closely behind.
Glennon only completed 59 percent of his throws against college competition, which is actually a four-point drop from last season. While it's something he can work on and his raw skills are solid, he's not worth taking early in Round 1.
Which player would be the biggest reach if taken early?
Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas
Another quarterback and the reason is simple. The demand for promising young QBs in the same mold as Luck and Griffin is sky high, but the supply is low in this year's class. That's causing prospects like Glennon and Wilson to rise.
Wilson features a terrific arm and has no shortage of confidence, but that isn't always a good things. His lackluster touchdown-to-interception ratio (21 to 13) as a senior leaves a lot to be desired, even against SEC competition.
Having good decision-making skills is crucial to succeeding at the quarterback position in the NFL. Luck and Griffin showcased them right away and Russell Wilson improved as the season went on. The Arkansas QB has a long way to go in that area.
Keenan Allen, WR, California
Wide receiver is another position that lacks depth in the 2013 class. For players like Allen, who's considered one of the top wideouts available, that's good news because it means teams in need of one are going to reach to fill the void.
The most worrisome thing about Allen is his lack of speed. It will make it difficult for him to separate from cornerbacks at the next level. His per-catch average of just over 12 yards shows he was more of a possession receiver for Cal.
While there's definitely room for those type of players in the NFL, very few reach the level of Wes Welker, and that's the type of production it would take to be worth an early first-round pick. Teams should wait on Allen.
Draft Order (as of Wild Card Weekend)
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Detroit Lions
6. Cleveland Browns
7. Arizona Cardinals
8. Buffalo Bills
9. New York Jets
10. Tennessee Titans
11. San Diego Chargers
12. Miami Dolphins
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Carolina Panthers
15. New Orleans Saints
16. St. Louis Rams
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
18. Dallas Cowboys
19. New York Giants
20. Chicago Bears
21. St. Louis Rams (via Washington Redskins)
22. Minnesota Vikings
23. Cincinnati Bengals
24. Baltimore Ravens
25. Seattle Seahawks
26. Indianapolis Colts
27. Green Bay Packers
28. San Francisco 49ers
29. Houston Texans
30. New England Patriots
31. Denver Broncos
32. Atlanta Falcons
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