Week 17 NFL Picks: Teams That Won't Cover at Home

Brian MaziqueCorrespondent IIIDecember 30, 2012

Nov 25, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) leaves the field after the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Denver won the game 17-9. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Week 17 will not be a good week for a handful of the home teams in the NFL. I'm predicting at least three home teams will fail to cover. Some will not only fail to cover, but they will lose outright.

Division rivalries are the theme here, as those games often require us to throw the overall records out the window.

Here is a breakdown of the three aforementioned situations:

(All odds per OddsShark.com)


New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

The Bills are currently listed as three-point favorites over the Jets, but they won't win this game. The Jets are going back to Mark Sanchez at quarterback, and despite the mess this team has been all season, they were at their best against the Bills.

In Week 1, the Jets thrashed Buffalo 48-28. Sanchez threw for 266 yards and three touchdowns, and the Jets picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick three times in that game as well.

Sanchez's success against the Bills isn't just restricted to the season opener. He is 5-1 lifetime against them, and his 11 touchdown passes against the Bills is tied for the most he's thrown against any other team.

There is a reason Rex Ryan felt Sanchez gave his team the best chance to win this game, and Sanchez's history against the Bills was part of that reasoning. He told the New York Daily News

Mark has had success earlier in the season against Buffalo. He’s very familiar with them. That’s the reason I'm going with Mark.

The Jets will knock off the Bills at home.


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

The Giants have looked horrible in the last two games. They have been outscored 67-14 in that span, but they still are eight-point favorites against the Eagles in Week 17.

This is genuinely a team that plays well with their backs to the wall, but they have failed to respond up to now.

In Week 17, they will run into an emotional buzzsaw. The Eagles are far removed from any playoff talk, but this is still a divisional rivalry. 

Michael Vick and Andy Reid are likely making their final appearances as part of the Eagles organization, per Allentown Morning Call.

I fully expect this team to come out fired up.

They get an opportunity to play spoiler to the Giants' flickering playoff hopes (if the Giants win and the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings lose, the Giants make the playoffs), and they get the chance to send their leaders out on a winning note.

Vick will start in place of the injured Nick Foles, and he has something to prove. His season didn't go as planned, but there will be a measure of satisfaction if he can lead the team to a victory in the season finale.

The Eagles beat the Giants 19-17 on September 30. Vick threw for 241 yards and a touchdown and also rushed for 49 yards. More importantly, LeSean McCoy ran for 123 yards. 

The Eagles must run the ball to win this game. Look for the Eagles' running game to take center stage, and for Vick to hurt the G-Men with play-action.

The Giants aren't going to the playoffs, and they won't cover or win in the season finale.


Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

The Broncos are one of the biggest favorites of the week at 16 points.

I know the Chiefs are really bad, and the Broncos are really good, but 16 points is a ton for any division rivalry. This is especially the case considering the Broncos only beat the Chiefs by eight points in Week 12.

Kansas City stayed in the game behind a solid rushing attack and their underrated defense. Jamaal Charles ran for 107 yards in that game, and the Chiefs limited the Broncos to 17 points.

Charles has been on a roll lately. He's rushed for 100 yards in four of his last five games. I totally agree that the Broncos will win this game, but the margin of victory will be seven to 10 points.

Giving 16 points, I'll take the Chiefs in this matchup.


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