One of my least favorite media trends is how no one defends their incorrect picks, and only acknowledges a prediction if it makes them look good.

I sit with nine of 16 predictions correct, and am obviously not glowing with pride. But I still agree with most of my logic, even though it didn’t all work out. And going forward, seven of my final eight are still alive. So I don’t feel like a complete idiot.

As I predict the upcoming games, I’ll acknowledge my mistakes and provide thoughts on the opening weekend.

 

East Region

Game: UNC-Washington St.

I thought it’d be: UNC-Notre Dame

Original pick: UNC

My pick now: UNC

 

Game: Louisville-Tennessee

I thought it’d be: Louisville-Butler

Original pick: Louisville

My pick now: Louisville

 

Thoughts on last weekend

I thought the Irish’s offense would trump the Cougs’ D. I was scared about the way that WSU’s low-scoring style allows an inferior team to hang around, and they exhibited this against Winthrop before pulling away. Notre Dame just couldn’t score in the second round, so give credit to the Cougars.

I was also right that the only thing leading people to pick George Mason was their jerseys had been seen in the Final Four two years ago.

I was a little presumptuous in picking Tennessee to lose Friday, but I had already admitted that I was biased. And in watching that entire game, I saw American as the team that won the style-of-play battle. They did the things I said they needed to do to win; they slowed UT down and kept it close until the end. If you just saw the final score, you have no sense of how close I was to getting that one right.

Butler made South Alabama look unworthy of a bid and pushed UT to overtime, almost giving me a nice win. Is anyone confident about the Vols’ chances against Louisville?

 

Thoughts on this weekend

UNC did nothing to contradict their No. 1 seeding in handling their opponents. Perhaps more surprising to some people is that Louisville didn’t run into any trouble. Neither of these teams faced a moment where they had to overcome any adversity, because they dominated their games.

Tennessee didn’t look like they can beat UNC in a potential Elite 8 game, but “survive and advance” has always been the motto of this tournament. They have a whole week to regroup and come out and win two games.

That being said, I am very happy with my original picks going forward, particularly having the Cardinals winning their next game.

 

 
Midwest Region

Game: Kansas-Villanova.

I thought it’d be: Kansas-Clemson

Original pick: Kansas

My pick now: Kansas

 

Game: Wisconsin-Davidson

I thought it’d be: Wisconsin-Gonzaga

Original pick: Wisconsin

My pick now: Wisconsin

 

Thoughts on last weekend

I wrote a whole paragraph about how Vandy would bomb in this tournament, but didn’t have the guts to pull the trigger on the Siena pick. I didn’t think Siena’s defense could win a tournament game, and in their second-round game against Villanova I looked right.

Clemson blew their opportunity to make me look good; they blew a big lead on Villanova.

After the ACC tournament run the Tigers made, it is still shocking to me that the reason they lost was a lack of composure. But that’s the way things go sometimes. The Tigers would have dominated Siena just like Nova did, but they blew it in the first round.

I am not bothered by missing the USC-K-State game. I flipped the coin the wrong way. I think this one surprised a lot of people

It turns out the bandwagon underdog pick lived up to the hype this year.

Stephen Curry is as good as advertised, which I never disputed. But, the fact of the matter is Gonzaga played well enough to win that game. Curry hit big shots down the stretch, but the Bulldogs were the more physically sound team, playing better basketball as a unit.

Curry got hot and won the game, but if they were playing again tomorrow I would pick Gonzaga.

The nature of the beast is that an upset can happen when a team hits 3s and catches some breaks, but I don’t think my Gonzaga pick was bad. I had the Zags beating Georgetown, and if I could have picked on Saturday, I would have had Davidson winning.

The Wildcats deserved to win both games, but I stand by my thought that Gonzaga was the best team in this four-team pod.

As for the Hoyas, they blew a 16-point lead, and Roy Hibbert only played 16 minutes. Sixteen!

I know that every coach freaks about playing a guy with fouls, but you have to get Hibbert on the floor for half the game. They coached and played their way out of a win here.

But let’s celebrate Davidson for this week and give their kids all the credit in the world. Their wins weren’t flukes; they have a good basketball team.

 

Thoughts on this weekend

As with the East region, I love the picks I have for this weekend.

Like North Carolina, Kansas didn’t give anyone a reason to doubt that it can make a deep run in this thing. The Jayhawks are my pick to win it all, and I feel as confident in them as I could in any other team.

Again, like the East region, I love the weekend that Wisconsin had as a 3-seed.

It looked like a Final Four contender. Davidson is a great story, but they had to win two heart-attack games to get here.

When George Mason made their run, they could legitimately pound the ball with Jai Lewis and Will Thomas. As good as Stephen Curry is, teams can not usually have one guy shoot their team into the Final Four.

So unless Curry goes Danny Manning, the Wildcats’ nice run will end at the hands of the physical Badgers.

 

South Region

Game: Memphis-Michigan St.

I thought it’d be: Memphis-Michigan St.

Original pick: Michigan St.

My pick now: Michigan St.

 

Game: Stanford/ Texas

I thought it’d be: Stanford-Texas

Original pick: Texas

My pick now: Texas

 

Thoughts on last weekend

I guess I don’t need to say much here, as I only missed two games in this region. These games made me feel like I actually knew what I was talking about.

OK, Oral Roberts didn’t come through for me. But in that game, I was not overly impressed with Pittsburgh. They had an 18-0 run in the first half, and broke even for the rest of the game.

After that game, I was very glad that I had picked the Spartans in the second round. In this case, I was correct to have not jumped on the Panthers’ bandwagon.

Miami beat St. Mary’s, and this is the kind of game that everyone misses a few of each year. And fortunately, they don’t usually matter. Had the Hurricanes closed out Texas, they would have done a lot more damage to my bracket.

 

Thoughts on this weekend

Michigan St. is another team that I am happy to have picked initially, as I thought it had a more impressive weekend than the Memphis Tigers did. Memphis survived a real test against Mississippi St., and the Spartans handled Pittsburgh, who was the trendy pick to knock off the Tigers.

I don’t see many experts who have the confidence in Memphis to win it all, and the Spartans have as good a chance as anyone to beat them. If anything, I thought about changing my Final Four pick to MSU; it seems to be good enough to make it.

Stanford showed a lot of character to come back and win, despite their coach Trent Johnson getting himself ejected in the first half. His actions will be heavily debated by the mainstream media, and I side against Johnson.

I don’t care what he thought about the call, there is no reason to keep pushing the issue after the first technical is called. At that point, a head coach has to have the composure to turn around, go back to the bench, and keep coaching.

I can excuse the initial hot-headed reaction; it happens in sports. But it really reflects negatively on Johnson’s coaching abilities that he needed to argue his point, rather than think about the repercussions of his actions.

Texas survived its game against Miami, making this game a matchup of two teams who held on to get where they are.

Neither team dominated their opponents, but again, the name of the game is “survive and advance.” It would take a lot for me to change my initial pick, so I’ll stick with the Longhorns.

This region is going to make or break my bracket. If the Longhorns can really make the Final Four, I think I’ll be set up to have a successful tournament.

 

West Region 

Game: UCLA-Western Kentucky

I thought it’d be: UCLA-Drake

Original pick: UCLA

My pick now: UCLA

 

Game: Xavier-West Virginia

I thought it’d be: Baylor-Duke

Original pick: Duke

My pick now: West Virginia

 

Thoughts on last weekend

So maybe I bought into Drake a little too much, but I feel similarly to the way I feel about Gonzaga.

If I got to pick the WKU-Drake game again, I would still pick Drake. I think the better team lost this game, and that Drake really blew it. Had the Bulldogs gotten their act together earlier, they would probably be getting ready to play UCLA.

By the time they made their furious comeback against WKU, one of their best players had fouled out. Even so, they still controlled overtime, and it took a lucky shot for the Hilltoppers to advance. I don’t feel bad about this pick.

In picking Duke, I messed up. Everyone on the East coast got to watch enough of its games to see that it was a shaky team which had managed to squeak out a lot of wins without really crafting an identity for itself.

The Blue Devils never had one guy step out to be the marquee player who could go win them a game. And against WVU, no one stepped up to take over the game. The Mountaineers are a better team than the Blue Devils, and they played like it.

I’ve been blasted for picking Baylor to win two games, and I’ll admit it’s the biggest blemish on my bracket. Purdue controlled that game. I was right to say that Baylor and Vanderbilt were similar teams—they both basically no-showed the tournament. I really thought Baylor would come out and play better, and I still have no faith in Xavier.

 

Thoughts on this weekend

OK, so we’ve all seen the picture: There was contact on Texas A&M’s last shot, and they deserved to go to the line for a chance to take UCLA into OT. But the bottom line is the Bruins got the win. They’ve had to squeak out a couple of wins like that lately, but they keep winning the games.

Now the Bruins are fortunate enough to matchup against WKU.

Although the Hilltoppers shouldn’t be taken lightly, they got a good draw to end up in this game. I can’t recall another 12-seed getting a trip to the Sweet 16 while only having to beat two mid-major teams.

I am a natural-born mid-major supporter, having grown up around CAA basketball and attended JMU. But I know that going against a top-seeded team from a major league will be a different animal for the Hilltoppers. I think their respectable run will come to again, and I am again sticking with my initial pick.

The bottom half of this bracket is where I finally have to change one of my Elite Eight picks, but I am not going against my previous reasoning.

I still don’t think Xavier is one of the elite teams in the nation, and WVU did nothing but impress this past weekend. They had as good a weekend as anybody, controlling games against Arizona and Duke. I don’t care if those teams are in down years; it’s ridiculous to try to take anything away from what the Mountaineers did.

Doug Gottlieb should write a letter of apology to the entire state of West Virginia. He may have been in correct in saying WVU hadn’t played a very tough schedule, but he also continually implied that the Mountaineers couldn’t compete with the big-time programs in the nation. This was obviously dead wrong.

 

So there you have it—I have done my best to honestly assess the strengths and weaknesses of the picks I made going into the tournament. Again, I’m not psyched about getting nine of 16 correct, but I think that seven of my Elite Eight picks are strong and I am sticking with them.

I’m keeping my Final Four as well: UNC, Kansas, Texas, and UCLA. I’ve still got Kansas beating the Bruins for the title, and I think I could be in a lot worse shape.

Let me hear some feedback. Am I still analyzing this in a way to try to validate my original picks? What’s wrong with my picks I’ve got going forward?

I’d love to hear some opinions, whether dissenting or agreeing. But at least you should know this: I’m not going to shy away from acknowledging my previous predictions, in any situation, whether they turn out to be genius or idiotic.