NCAA Tourney: Predicting the Second Weekend

One of my least favorite media trends is how no one defends their incorrect picks, and only acknowledges a prediction if it makes them look good.

I sit with nine of 16 predictions correct, and am obviously not glowing with pride. But I still agree with most of my logic, even though it didn’t all work out. And going forward, seven of my final eight are still alive. So I don’t feel like a complete idiot.

As I predict the upcoming games, I’ll acknowledge my mistakes and provide thoughts on the opening weekend.

East Region

Game: UNC-Washington St.

I thought it’d be: UNC-Notre Dame

Original pick: UNC

My pick now: UNC

Game: Louisville-Tennessee

I thought it’d be: Louisville-Butler

Original pick: Louisville

My pick now: Louisville

Thoughts on last weekend

I thought the Irish’s offense would trump the Cougs’ D. I was scared about the way that WSU’s low-scoring style allows an inferior team to hang around, and they exhibited this against Winthrop before pulling away. Notre Dame just couldn’t score in the second round, so give credit to the Cougars.

I was also right that the only thing leading people to pick George Mason was their jerseys had been seen in the Final Four two years ago.

I was a little presumptuous in picking Tennessee to lose Friday, but I had already admitted that I was biased. And in watching that entire game, I saw American as the team that won the style-of-play battle. They did the things I said they needed to do to win; they slowed UT down and kept it close until the end. If you just saw the final score, you have no sense of how close I was to getting that one right.

Butler made South Alabama look unworthy of a bid and pushed UT to overtime, almost giving me a nice win. Is anyone confident about the Vols’ chances against Louisville?

Thoughts on this weekend

UNC did nothing to contradict their No. 1 seeding in handling their opponents. Perhaps more surprising to some people is that Louisville didn’t run into any trouble. Neither of these teams faced a moment where they had to overcome any adversity, because they dominated their games.

Tennessee didn’t look like they can beat UNC in a potential Elite 8 game, but “survive and advance” has always been the motto of this tournament. They have a whole week to regroup and come out and win two games.

That being said, I am very happy with my original picks going forward, particularly having the Cardinals winning their next game.

 
Midwest Region

Game: Kansas-Villanova.

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