One of my least favorite media trends is how no one defends their incorrect picks, and only acknowledges a prediction if it makes them look good.
I sit with nine of 16 predictions correct, and am obviously not glowing with pride. But I still agree with most of my logic, even though it didn’t all work out. And going forward, seven of my final eight are still alive. So I don’t feel like a complete idiot.
As I predict the upcoming games, I’ll acknowledge my mistakes and provide thoughts on the opening weekend.
East Region
Game: UNC-Washington St.
I thought it’d be: UNC-Notre Dame
Original pick: UNC
My pick now: UNC
Game: Louisville-Tennessee
I thought it’d be: Louisville-Butler
Original pick: Louisville
My pick now: Louisville
Thoughts on last weekend
I thought the Irish’s offense would trump the Cougs’ D. I was scared about the way that WSU’s low-scoring style allows an inferior team to hang around, and they exhibited this against Winthrop before pulling away. Notre Dame just couldn’t score in the second round, so give credit to the Cougars.
I was also right that the only thing leading people to pick George Mason was their jerseys had been seen in the Final Four two years ago.
I was a little presumptuous in picking Tennessee to lose Friday, but I had already admitted that I was biased. And in watching that entire game, I saw American as the team that won the style-of-play battle. They did the things I said they needed to do to win; they slowed UT down and kept it close until the end. If you just saw the final score, you have no sense of how close I was to getting that one right.
Butler made South Alabama look unworthy of a bid and pushed UT to overtime, almost giving me a nice win. Is anyone confident about the Vols’ chances against Louisville?
Thoughts on this weekend
UNC did nothing to contradict their No. 1 seeding in handling their opponents. Perhaps more surprising to some people is that Louisville didn’t run into any trouble. Neither of these teams faced a moment where they had to overcome any adversity, because they dominated their games.
Tennessee didn’t look like they can beat UNC in a potential Elite 8 game, but “survive and advance” has always been the motto of this tournament. They have a whole week to regroup and come out and win two games.
That being said, I am very happy with my original picks going forward, particularly having the Cardinals winning their next game.
Midwest Region
Game: Kansas-Villanova.
6 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Chris D'Aniello about 1 year ago
I believe you picked Kansas vs Clemson not Villanova. No big deal, though. I agree with most of your picks. However, I like Davidson to beat Wisconsin. I know- bandwagon underdog. Everyone's picking them. But I don't think Stephen Curry will let them lose. Other than that pretty much what I have in the Elite 8. I originally had Duke in the Final Four because I really didn't think UCLA could make it. But now they pretty much win that region by default in my mind.
How do you feel about Texas? I have them winning it all over UNC. I love Augustin's dribble penetration with the option of kicking it out to (Insert name of any starter) for three.
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Hunter Dunlo about 1 year ago
Thanks Chris, you're right. I picked Clemson. Just a typo.
Right now, I like the winner of the South to beat UCLA, whomever it is. (But I'm just not changing the UCLA pick since I made it initially.) I think Michigan St. is a better team right now, and Texas is playing well. A true point guard is a huge asset, and Augustin is definitely the real deal. And if Memphis can win the next two, then they will have answered my (and many other people's) doubts about their legitimacy. If the Tigers get there, I think they'll beat UCLA.
Without a crystal ball, I don't see how anyone can pick against UCLA in the West. I wouldn't be shocked to see them lose, but I don't know how to pinpoint who could do it. The Xavier/ WVU winner should give it a good go in the regional final, but I'm having trouble even picking a winner to that game. And it wouldn't drop my jaw to even see WKU make it out of that region - they have a better draw than George Mason did two years ago. But for all intents and purposes, I just can't pick against UCLA.
Texas winning it all? Right now, I still say Kansas because the Jayhawks controlled the Big XII title game and I don't see how anything has changed since then. But after this weekend, Texas could really build themselves up to the point where they could win the whole thing. Based on what I know right now, I go Kansas. But Texas is the real deal, and the most legit contender out of the South.
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Andrew Kneeland about 1 year ago
I'm starting to become a huge Davidson fan, and I think they will hang with Wisconsin come this weekend.
Should be a great game, and Davidson is good enough to come out on top.
Good picks, though. If my bracket weren't so screwed up right now, it might just agree with you.
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Hunter Dunlo about 1 year ago
Andrew, thanks for the read and the feedback.
I'm definitely excited about the Davidson/Wisconsin game. I think you're right that Davidson can hang, I just hope the Badgers pull it out and make me look smarter than I did last week!
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Jeffrey Klein about 1 year ago
Bo Ryan has more then enough time to come up with a game plan to stop Davidson, so Badgers will be headed for an elite 8 once again.
Davidson is not good enough to come out on top, as it is about time the Badgers start to recieve some credit for their ability to play defense and run the swing offense.
Drew Lavender has been player as well as anyone in the country, as has been all season, so it's about time that Xavier begins to recieve some credit.
I can't really see Michigan State making this game nearly as competitive and exciting as most of the writers tend to think it is going to be. Derrick Rose will have no problem stopping Drew Neitzel, leading the Memphis Tigers into a match-up with Texas or Stanford. Texas will be rather hard to stop in Texas, making them a hard out for the Memphis.
Look for the Badgers, Longhorns, UCLA, and North Carolina to make the trip to Final Four.
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Hunter Dunlo about 1 year ago
Jeffrey,
Thanks for the detailed comment.
I guess a lot of people just don't buy into Memphis; maybe it's the lack of exposure. They're constantly talked about, but I've seen them play less than ten times all year. So for me, that probably influences it somewhat. I see these Big Ten teams all the time, and I probably become biased.
You talk about the Badgers D stepping up, and I guess I see this same classic Big Ten characteristic in Michigan State. Granted, Wisconsin has done it better all year (hence why they had a better season than MSU), but I think the Spartans are a tougher team than Memphis. Maybe I'm off on this - I guess we'll see.
Either way, the long week is nearing a close, and our questions will all be answered soon.
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