One of my least favorite media trends is how no one defends their incorrect picks, and only acknowledges a prediction if it makes them look good.
I sit with nine of 16 predictions correct, and am obviously not glowing with pride. But I still agree with most of my logic, even though it didn’t all work out. And going forward, seven of my final eight are still alive. So I don’t feel like a complete idiot.
As I predict the upcoming games, I’ll acknowledge my mistakes and provide thoughts on the opening weekend.
East Region
Game: UNC-Washington St.
I thought it’d be: UNC-Notre Dame
Original pick: UNC
My pick now: UNC
Game: Louisville-Tennessee
I thought it’d be: Louisville-Butler
Original pick: Louisville
My pick now: Louisville
Thoughts on last weekend
I thought the Irish’s offense would trump the Cougs’ D. I was scared about the way that WSU’s low-scoring style allows an inferior team to hang around, and they exhibited this against Winthrop before pulling away. Notre Dame just couldn’t score in the second round, so give credit to the Cougars.
I was also right that the only thing leading people to pick George Mason was their jerseys had been seen in the Final Four two years ago.
I was a little presumptuous in picking Tennessee to lose Friday, but I had already admitted that I was biased. And in watching that entire game, I saw American as the team that won the style-of-play battle. They did the things I said they needed to do to win; they slowed UT down and kept it close until the end. If you just saw the final score, you have no sense of how close I was to getting that one right.
Butler made South Alabama look unworthy of a bid and pushed UT to overtime, almost giving me a nice win. Is anyone confident about the Vols’ chances against Louisville?
Thoughts on this weekend
UNC did nothing to contradict their No. 1 seeding in handling their opponents. Perhaps more surprising to some people is that Louisville didn’t run into any trouble. Neither of these teams faced a moment where they had to overcome any adversity, because they dominated their games.
Tennessee didn’t look like they can beat UNC in a potential Elite 8 game, but “survive and advance” has always been the motto of this tournament. They have a whole week to regroup and come out and win two games.
That being said, I am very happy with my original picks going forward, particularly having the Cardinals winning their next game.
Midwest Region
Game: Kansas-Villanova.
I thought it’d be: Kansas-Clemson
Original pick: Kansas
My pick now: Kansas
Game: Wisconsin-Davidson
I thought it’d be: Wisconsin-Gonzaga
Original pick: Wisconsin
My pick now: Wisconsin
Thoughts on last weekend
I wrote a whole paragraph about how Vandy would bomb in this tournament, but didn’t have the guts to pull the trigger on the Siena pick. I didn’t think Siena’s defense could win a tournament game, and in their second-round game against Villanova I looked right.
Clemson blew their opportunity to make me look good; they blew a big lead on Villanova.
After the ACC tournament run the Tigers made, it is still shocking to me that the reason they lost was a lack of composure. But that’s the way things go sometimes. The Tigers would have dominated Siena just like Nova did, but they blew it in the first round.
I am not bothered by missing the USC-K-State game. I flipped the coin the wrong way. I think this one surprised a lot of people
It turns out the bandwagon underdog pick lived up to the hype this year.
Stephen Curry is as good as advertised, which I never disputed. But, the fact of the matter is Gonzaga played well enough to win that game. Curry hit big shots down the stretch, but the Bulldogs were the more physically sound team, playing better basketball as a unit.
Curry got hot and won the game, but if they were playing again tomorrow I would pick Gonzaga.
The nature of the beast is that an upset can happen when a team hits 3s and catches some breaks, but I don’t think my Gonzaga pick was bad. I had the Zags beating Georgetown, and if I could have picked on Saturday, I would have had Davidson winning.
Today's Must Reads
The Wildcats deserved to win both games, but I stand by my thought that Gonzaga was the best team in this four-team pod.
As for the Hoyas, they blew a 16-point lead, and Roy Hibbert only played 16 minutes. Sixteen!
I know that every coach freaks about playing a guy with fouls, but you have to get Hibbert on the floor for half the game. They coached and played their way out of a win here.
But let’s celebrate Davidson for this week and give their kids all the credit in the world. Their wins weren’t flukes; they have a good basketball team.
Thoughts on this weekend
As with the East region, I love the picks I have for this weekend.
Like North Carolina, Kansas didn’t give anyone a reason to doubt that it can make a deep run in this thing. The Jayhawks are my pick to win it all, and I feel as confident in them as I could in any other team.
Again, like the East region, I love the weekend that Wisconsin had as a 3-seed.
It looked like a Final Four contender. Davidson is a great story, but they had to win two heart-attack games to get here.
When George Mason made their run, they could legitimately pound the ball with Jai Lewis and Will Thomas. As good as Stephen Curry is, teams can not usually have one guy shoot their team into the Final Four.
So unless Curry goes Danny Manning, the Wildcats’ nice run will end at the hands of the physical Badgers.
South Region
Game: Memphis-Michigan St.
I thought it’d be: Memphis-Michigan St.
Original pick: Michigan St.
My pick now: Michigan St.
Game: Stanford/ Texas
I thought it’d be: Stanford-Texas
Original pick: Texas
My pick now: Texas
Thoughts on last weekend
I guess I don’t need to say much here, as I only missed two games in this region. These games made me feel like I actually knew what I was talking about.
OK, Oral Roberts didn’t come through for me. But in that game, I was not overly impressed with Pittsburgh. They had an 18-0 run in the first half, and broke even for the rest of the game.
After that game, I was very glad that I had picked the Spartans in the second round. In this case, I was correct to have not jumped on the Panthers’ bandwagon.
Miami beat St. Mary’s, and this is the kind of game that everyone misses a few of each year. And fortunately, they don’t usually matter. Had the Hurricanes closed out Texas, they would have done a lot more damage to my bracket.
Thoughts on this weekend
Michigan St. is another team that I am happy to have picked initially, as I thought it had a more impressive weekend than the Memphis Tigers did. Memphis survived a real test against Mississippi St., and the Spartans handled Pittsburgh, who was the trendy pick to knock off the Tigers.
I don’t see many experts who have the confidence in Memphis to win it all, and the Spartans have as good a chance as anyone to beat them. If anything, I thought about changing my Final Four pick to MSU; it seems to be good enough to make it.
Stanford showed a lot of character to come back and win, despite their coach Trent Johnson getting himself ejected in the first half. His actions will be heavily debated by the mainstream media, and I side against Johnson.
I don’t care what he thought about the call, there is no reason to keep pushing the issue after the first technical is called. At that point, a head coach has to have the composure to turn around, go back to the bench, and keep coaching.
I can excuse the initial hot-headed reaction; it happens in sports. But it really reflects negatively on Johnson’s coaching abilities that he needed to argue his point, rather than think about the repercussions of his actions.
Texas survived its game against Miami, making this game a matchup of two teams who held on to get where they are.
Neither team dominated their opponents, but again, the name of the game is “survive and advance.” It would take a lot for me to change my initial pick, so I’ll stick with the Longhorns.
This region is going to make or break my bracket. If the Longhorns can really make the Final Four, I think I’ll be set up to have a successful tournament.
West Region
Game: UCLA-Western Kentucky
I thought it’d be: UCLA-Drake
Original pick: UCLA
My pick now: UCLA
Game: Xavier-West Virginia
I thought it’d be: Baylor-Duke
Original pick: Duke
My pick now: West Virginia
Thoughts on last weekend
So maybe I bought into Drake a little too much, but I feel similarly to the way I feel about Gonzaga.
If I got to pick the WKU-Drake game again, I would still pick Drake. I think the better team lost this game, and that Drake really blew it. Had the Bulldogs gotten their act together earlier, they would probably be getting ready to play UCLA.
By the time they made their furious comeback against WKU, one of their best players had fouled out. Even so, they still controlled overtime, and it took a lucky shot for the Hilltoppers to advance. I don’t feel bad about this pick.
In picking Duke, I messed up. Everyone on the East coast got to watch enough of its games to see that it was a shaky team which had managed to squeak out a lot of wins without really crafting an identity for itself.
The Blue Devils never had one guy step out to be the marquee player who could go win them a game. And against WVU, no one stepped up to take over the game. The Mountaineers are a better team than the Blue Devils, and they played like it.
I’ve been blasted for picking Baylor to win two games, and I’ll admit it’s the biggest blemish on my bracket. Purdue controlled that game. I was right to say that Baylor and Vanderbilt were similar teams—they both basically no-showed the tournament. I really thought Baylor would come out and play better, and I still have no faith in Xavier.
Thoughts on this weekend
OK, so we’ve all seen the picture: There was contact on Texas A&M’s last shot, and they deserved to go to the line for a chance to take UCLA into OT. But the bottom line is the Bruins got the win. They’ve had to squeak out a couple of wins like that lately, but they keep winning the games.
Now the Bruins are fortunate enough to matchup against WKU.
Although the Hilltoppers shouldn’t be taken lightly, they got a good draw to end up in this game. I can’t recall another 12-seed getting a trip to the Sweet 16 while only having to beat two mid-major teams.
I am a natural-born mid-major supporter, having grown up around CAA basketball and attended JMU. But I know that going against a top-seeded team from a major league will be a different animal for the Hilltoppers. I think their respectable run will come to again, and I am again sticking with my initial pick.
The bottom half of this bracket is where I finally have to change one of my Elite Eight picks, but I am not going against my previous reasoning.
I still don’t think Xavier is one of the elite teams in the nation, and WVU did nothing but impress this past weekend. They had as good a weekend as anybody, controlling games against Arizona and Duke. I don’t care if those teams are in down years; it’s ridiculous to try to take anything away from what the Mountaineers did.
Doug Gottlieb should write a letter of apology to the entire state of West Virginia. He may have been in correct in saying WVU hadn’t played a very tough schedule, but he also continually implied that the Mountaineers couldn’t compete with the big-time programs in the nation. This was obviously dead wrong.
So there you have it—I have done my best to honestly assess the strengths and weaknesses of the picks I made going into the tournament. Again, I’m not psyched about getting nine of 16 correct, but I think that seven of my Elite Eight picks are strong and I am sticking with them.
I’m keeping my Final Four as well: UNC, Kansas, Texas, and UCLA. I’ve still got Kansas beating the Bruins for the title, and I think I could be in a lot worse shape.
Let me hear some feedback. Am I still analyzing this in a way to try to validate my original picks? What’s wrong with my picks I’ve got going forward?
I’d love to hear some opinions, whether dissenting or agreeing. But at least you should know this: I’m not going to shy away from acknowledging my previous predictions, in any situation, whether they turn out to be genius or idiotic.
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5 months ago
I believe you picked Kansas vs Clemson not Villanova. No big deal, though. I agree with most of your picks. However, I like Davidson to beat Wisconsin. I know- bandwagon underdog. Everyone's picking them. But I don't think Stephen Curry will let them lose. Other than that pretty much what I have in the Elite 8. I originally had Duke in the Final Four because I really didn't think UCLA could make it. But now they pretty much win that region by default in my mind.
How do you feel about Texas? I have them winning it all over UNC. I love Augustin's dribble penetration with the option of kicking it out to (Insert name of any starter) for three.
5 months ago
Thanks Chris, you're right. I picked Clemson. Just a typo.
Right now, I like the winner of the South to beat UCLA, whomever it is. (But I'm just not changing the UCLA pick since I made it initially.) I think Michigan St. is a better team right now, and Texas is playing well. A true point guard is a huge asset, and Augustin is definitely the real deal. And if Memphis can win the next two, then they will have answered my (and many other people's) doubts about their legitimacy. If the Tigers get there, I think they'll beat UCLA.
Without a crystal ball, I don't see how anyone can pick against UCLA in the West. I wouldn't be shocked to see them lose, but I don't know how to pinpoint who could do it. The Xavier/ WVU winner should give it a good go in the regional final, but I'm having trouble even picking a winner to that game. And it wouldn't drop my jaw to even see WKU make it out of that region - they have a better draw than George Mason did two years ago. But for all intents and purposes, I just can't pick against UCLA.
Texas winning it all? Right now, I still say Kansas because the Jayhawks controlled the Big XII title game and I don't see how anything has changed since then. But after this weekend, Texas could really build themselves up to the point where they could win the whole thing. Based on what I know right now, I go Kansas. But Texas is the real deal, and the most legit contender out of the South.
5 months ago
I'm starting to become a huge Davidson fan, and I think they will hang with Wisconsin come this weekend.
Should be a great game, and Davidson is good enough to come out on top.
Good picks, though. If my bracket weren't so screwed up right now, it might just agree with you.
5 months ago
Andrew, thanks for the read and the feedback.
I'm definitely excited about the Davidson/Wisconsin game. I think you're right that Davidson can hang, I just hope the Badgers pull it out and make me look smarter than I did last week!
5 months ago
Bo Ryan has more then enough time to come up with a game plan to stop Davidson, so Badgers will be headed for an elite 8 once again.
Davidson is not good enough to come out on top, as it is about time the Badgers start to recieve some credit for their ability to play defense and run the swing offense.
Drew Lavender has been player as well as anyone in the country, as has been all season, so it's about time that Xavier begins to recieve some credit.
I can't really see Michigan State making this game nearly as competitive and exciting as most of the writers tend to think it is going to be. Derrick Rose will have no problem stopping Drew Neitzel, leading the Memphis Tigers into a match-up with Texas or Stanford. Texas will be rather hard to stop in Texas, making them a hard out for the Memphis.
Look for the Badgers, Longhorns, UCLA, and North Carolina to make the trip to Final Four.
5 months ago
Jeffrey,
Thanks for the detailed comment.
I guess a lot of people just don't buy into Memphis; maybe it's the lack of exposure. They're constantly talked about, but I've seen them play less than ten times all year. So for me, that probably influences it somewhat. I see these Big Ten teams all the time, and I probably become biased.
You talk about the Badgers D stepping up, and I guess I see this same classic Big Ten characteristic in Michigan State. Granted, Wisconsin has done it better all year (hence why they had a better season than MSU), but I think the Spartans are a tougher team than Memphis. Maybe I'm off on this - I guess we'll see.
Either way, the long week is nearing a close, and our questions will all be answered soon.
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