2008 MLB Preview: NL West

Update: Writing these takes a period of a few days, and during this time it was announced that Garciaparra broke a bone in his wrist, and is likely to miss the season opener and could start the season on the DL. Tony Abreu and Blake DeWitt (barring trade) are the likely fill-ins at the hot corner.

Over at first though, James Loney will continue the youth movement. Loney posted a solid .331 average last season, which was complimented by 15 homers and 67 RBI, in about double the action he saw in 2006. With a full season at first at his disposal, Loney should be able to provide the Dodgers with a look into their future, while undergoing some veteran tutelage from Mark Sweeney.

As for the pitching staff, they’re relying on Esteban Loaiza and the Derek Lowe-face to get them through the season.

Just kidding…kind of.

Loaiza figures to be the fifth starter on the rotation, filling in for an injured Jason Schmidt. If you aren’t worried by Loaiza’s 1-4 record and 8.34 ERA for the Dodgers in five starts last season, then I’d like to commend you on either having nerves of steel, or a whole lot of faith in divine intervention. By the way, if you believe in trends, then Loaiza pitches miserably for any team associated with the color blue: On team’s with the predominant color as blue (so not Washington), Loaiza is 43-49 with an average 5.51 ERA over those seven seasons. Tossing in Washington (just for the sake of argument) Loaiza ends up being 55-59, with an ERA average over those seasons of 4.64.

Meanwhile, Derek Lowe will slot in behind Brad Penny at the top of the Dodgers’ rotation. Penny finished with a 16-4 record last season, while throwing 208 innings with a 3.03 ERA, while Mr. Lowe who went a disappointing 12-14 with a 3.88 ERA and was two-thirds of an inning away from the 200 mark followed him. The weird thing about Lowe, is that every few years he’s susceptible to having a huge year record-wise so maybe 2008 could be a replication of that:

2002: 21-8, 2.58 ERA, 219.2 IP, 127 strikeouts—32 starts
2003: 17-7, 4.47, 203.1 IP, 110 Strikeouts—33 starts
2006: 16-8, 3.63, 218.00, 123 strikeouts—34 starts

Then there is the surprise of 2006 in Chad Billingsley who shot out of the gates following injuries to key members of the pitching staff, and ended up going 12-5 for the season, while dropping 49-points off of his ERA in 2007 (3.80 in ’06, 3.31 in ’07). If Billingsley can reproduce those kinds of numbers this season, while Hiroki Kuroda can provide solid 4th starter numbers, the Dodgers should be good 4/5 of the way (all the better if Loaiza can get over his fear of the color blue).

Now some of you may be wondering what’s going on with Jason Schmidt. Well, not only is he planning on pitching through pain to get himself into game shape, but he’s also had a wavering status, as there hasn’t been a clear-cut decision as to when he’ll be ready to pitch again.

But now we’ll move over to the bullpen.

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