Colorado Rockies (2007 Results: 90-73, NL Wild Card Winner) : This may just sound like I’m still eating sour grapes following last year’s loss by the Padres, but I’m skeptical as to whether or not they can repeat that success.

Don’t get me wrong, there are some outstanding talents on this team that we’ll get to in a minute, but think about this: As of August 24th, the Rockies were 64-64. They then went 25-9, which admittedly is astounding. But before I become convinced this team can do it again, I want to see if it was more talent than momentum that got them that far.

The Rockies probably have one of the best offensive outfields in the NL with Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, and Willy Taveras, and all three of these guys bring different attributes that helped the Rockies win last season.

Taveras brings you the speed to run the bases effectively (and to lead-off) and cover ground effectively in the outfield. He also provides a bat that isn’t powerful, but should get you to within the .300 mark average-wise (was .320 in just under 100 games last season). Although he did have a tough time in the playoffs last year, Taveras had just come off of a quad injury, and if he’s fully healthy, the Rockies have a good young centerfielder on their hands.

Hawpe brings an excellent arm to the outfield, as well as a strong bat that can net you a .291 average and 29 home runs. Hawpe is coming off his first professional season in which he has knocked in over 100 runs, while missing only 10 games last season. Although he’s a little banged up in spring training, Hawpe should be ready to go for the season-opener, as he looks for a repeat of last year’s success.

This leaves us with Holliday: Do I really need to talk about him? Not only is he magic (he didn’t touch the plate, but he’s still safe! That’s amazing!), but he came in second in the NL in MVP voting, as well as finished tops in two of the categories required for the triple crown in the National League (average and RBI—he was fourth in home runs). Do you need more of an explanation? There’s no reason he can’t win the Triple Crown this year.

Sidenote: I’d like to clarify one thing: I’m not bitter about the “Holliday touching the plate thing”. Tim McClelland couldn’t see the play, and he made the call accordingly. What’s done is done. I mean, it’s not like I’ve never screwed a team when I’ve umpired.

Over on the infield, you’ve got Garrett Atkins at third that is another 25+ homer, 100+ RBI guy that can hit over .300. Although he’s got a strong arm, he could do more with his glove on defense, but it’s not like I’d turn him down if he got offered to my team.

Back at first is Todd Helton, who despite the rumors last off-season that he was headed to Boston, ended up playing them in the World Series. Weird eh? That and he’s got an awesome goatee. Aside from those things however, Helton has hit above .300 ever year of his career since 1998, while playing some seemingly spotless defense. Although his home run numbers have dropped (20, 15, 17 the past three seasons) it’s almost dismissible, as the Rockies have discovered other power sources on their roster. That’s not to overlook Helton’s importance however, as he is still an indispensable cog in this offense.

Behind the plate, the greatest name in the history of catchers—Yorvit Torrealba—returns. Despite not being the only catcher in the league with the last name Torrealba, he doesn’t let that stop him. Although he will never blow you away with the bat (.255, 8 homers, 47 RBI last year), he does bring a steady, consistent presence behind the plate, as well as a fairly adequate defensive catcher, with a fairly adequate backup in Chris Iannetta.

Up the middle, Troy Tulowitzki is another guy I don’t need to tell you anything about. He’s powerful (24 homers, 99 RBI), he can hit for average (.291), he can field with the best of them, he was nearly a Blue Jay, and he got cheated out of Rookie of the Year honors in 2007. The only reason Braun got it is because “Chicks dig the long ball”.

However, over at second there seems to be a glaring hole with the absence of Kaz Matsui—I don’t know if I’ll ever say that again. Jayson Nix is the club’s top prospect at second base, but he’ll be getting a bit of competition from Marcus Giles, fresh off a sub-par season with the Padres. At any point during the season though, you could also see Omar Quintanilla, Clint Barmes Jeff Baker, and Ian Stewart try their hand at second also.

Last year was basically the coming out party for Jeff Francis. The Canadian made his presence known in the World Series, threw over 200 innings for the first time in his career (215.1) and had his third straight season of 30+ starts and 100+ strikeouts. You may remember back with the Houston Astros that Roy Oswalt has never had a season below .500 in his career; well Jeff Francis is in the same boat. The one knock against him however is that he hasn’t had an ERA below 4.00 his entire career, but in the thin air of Colorado we could give him a bit of a break.

Aaron Cook, despite a shortened season last year, was able to post an 8-7 record, which after his 2006 season, is a little bit of a downer and a little bit of a bright spot (Cook threw 212.2 innings, started 32 games, and struck out 92 in 2006, but he also posted a 9-15 record with a 4.23 ERA), so if he’s able to have a healthy mix of both seasons—that’s the best news possible.

Rounding out the rotation will be Ubaldo Jiminez (who allowed fewer than three runs in three of his four wins last season), Jason Hirsh, and one of Franklin Morales (3-0 with three earned runs in September last season, and the only pitcher with an ERA below 4.00 amongst contending starters), Josh Towers (seriously, you don’t want this guy…especially in Colorado), Kip Wells and Mike Redmond.

Manny Corpas returns to hold down the ninth, as last season he posted a 2.08 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and was 19/22 in save opportunities (although after becoming the official closer, he only blew one save), while Brian Fuentes (3-5, 3.08 ERA) will be setting up for Corpas. Luis Vizcaino comes over from the AL, where last season he was a workhorse in 75.1 innings. Although he finished the year at 8-2, his ERA was slightly inflated at 4.30, but his most recent stint in the NL West was with Arizona where he posted a 3.58 ERA so you could see some replication there.

The rest of the bullpen will be filled out with some inexperienced guys like Taylor Buchholz, Zach McClellan, Josh Newman, Micah Bowie, and Ramon Ramirez, Ryan Speier who will try to keep his solid play since coming back from a shoulder injury going, and Jose Capellan who will have to prove that he is really a Major League pitcher. If that can happen, then the Rockies could see some of last year’s success repeat itself.

(2008 Prediction: 84-78, second in NL West)

Arizona Diamondbacks (2007 Results: 90-72, first in NL West): The Arizona Diamondbacks had a fairly quick turnaround in 2007 from their disappointing 2006 season. Fortunately, that success doesn’t seem to be a “one and out” kind of deal.

To start with, their outfield is a mix of speed, spirit, grit, and power. I mean, did anyone else know that Eric Byrnes stole 50 bases while posting 21 homers and 83 RBI last season tied together with a .286 average (his highest since a 10-game stint with Oakland in 2000)? That alone is a reason to get excited about 2008—a guy with the skills to pay the bills, as well as a guy who plays with a chip on his shoulder.

 But there’s also Chris Young who topped 30 homers in his first full season. He also stole 27 bases, making him a prime candidate for the 30/30 club in 2008, and maybe the 40/40 club in the future. Granted, his average looks a little too similar to Adam Dunn’s (.237 in 2007) but if those ahead of him in Arizona’s order can get on base this season, then replicating those 32 homers and 29 doubles from last season alone will help him bump up those 68 RBI.

Then there’s Justin Upton, who ruined the D’Backs playoff series against the Rockies last year with his interference-provoking slide in the NLCS. But I mean, the kid is 20, so he’s bound to make some mistakes (Granted this one was a doozy), but now that he’s starting in right field, the mistakes will have to be fewer. However, looking at his limited stats from last season, Upton looks to bring even more speed to this Arizona outfield, while it’s worth noting that he has hit over .300 at both the highest level of single A, and Double-A—all while skipping Triple-A on his way to the bigs, while Upton will use his speed to his advantage (like Byrnes and Young) in the outfield to cover some serious ground.

Up the middle, the D’Backs are set with former Blue Jay Orlando “O-Dog” Hudson at second base, and JD Drew’s little brother Stephen at shortstop. Hudson definitely seems to be more productive in the NL, as in his two years with the Diamondbacks he’s hit over .285 (.287 in 2006 and .294 in 2007), stole 10 bases for the first time in his career, and has proven to be an adequate power bat (25 homers in two years in Arizona), so there’s no reason to say that Hudson won’t again replicate his 10 homers and 60+ RBI, and he could even hit 15 homers/70+ RBI this season.

Stephen Drew meanwhile, will have to prove that he’s can produce more like his 2005 self than his 2006 performance. Between those two years Drew played more games (59 in ’06 and 150 in ’07) while seeing increases in homers and RBI, but he also saw drops in his batting average (.316 in 2006, .238 in 2007) and On-base percentage (.357 in ’06, .313 in ’07). Drew’s offensive struggles can probably be attributed to his inexperience, however it doesn’t appear that his defense should suffer, no matter how he does offensively this season.

On the corners, Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson will fill out third and first base, while Chad Tracy continues to recover from blood clots and off-season knee surgery. In Reynolds first season he showed some prowess at the plate, posting 17 homers and 62 RBI and a .279 average. Although Reynolds will be under some pressure to repeat and improve upon those numbers, if Chad Tracy can return to form and hit anywhere from 18 to 24 homers with 75 to 80 RBI, then however the two are used at third base, the Diamondbacks should receive steady production this season while over at first, Conor Jackson will need to improve upon a career-best 15 home runs (that he’s hit each of the past two seasons) while working to keep his average in the .285-.290 range.

Behind the plate Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero will split time again as they’ll look to successfully combine their offensive numbers (Snyder: 13 hr/47RBI/.252 Avg. Montero: 10hr/37RBI/.224 Avg.) and replicate them from last season, and keep their efficiency at throwing out base stealers (39/126=31%) on the rise.

Rotation-wise, there’s no doubt that Brandon Webb is the ace: 42 straight scoreless innings this past season, two straight years of ERAs that have threatened dropping into the 2.00s (3.10, 3.01). The interesting thing about Webb though, is that each of the past three seasons, his win totals have increased by two (2005: 14, 2006: 16, 2007: 18) and with a supporting cast around him that should give him more run support, there’s no question that Webb could see 20 wins and an ERA under 3.00 by the end of this season.

Fellow righties Micah Owings and (newly acquired) Dan Haren will also be featured in ‘Zonas rotation this year. Owings produced solid results last season, however this spring he’s been bothered by a sore shoulder. If Owings can overcome that, then there’s no doubt he could crack ten wins this season, but if his shoulder continues to be a problem, it’ll be interesting to see how the Diamondbacks deal with it.

Haren meanwhile, is yet another product of an Oakland system that seems to produce quality pitching. Although Mark Mulder has fallen apart health-wise, Tim Hudson has proven to be flourishing in his switch to the NL, and if Haren can stay healthy, then there’s no doubt that he could produce a few more wins than last season and lower his ERA. (Is it ironic that Mulder was traded for Haren and now Haren has been dealt too? Probably. And just so you know, Haren had 19 NL starts before the trade, but his second time around will be better given the AL experience).

With the lefties however, it’s a different question. Doug Davis could go 14-4, or he could go 5-13 and I wouldn’t be surprised either way. Although his yearly records have always been around .500 (his career record is 75-75) he’s never struck me as someone overly effective. Granted if he were to get 10 wins for Arizona that’d help immensely, but for some reason I see the wheels falling off in a major way for Davis this season.

The other lefty on the staff, veteran Randy Johnson, is another question mark—but because of his health. He’s 44, and if you’ve read my other previews, you know I place little-to-no faith in pitchers in-or-around their forties. I place even less faith in pitchers who have had two surgeries on the same injury, and word out of ‘Zona is that the Unit’s first start will be delayed a little bit. Whatever happens though, if he falters or flourishes, the Diamondbacks got by without him last year, and they can do the same this season if need be. I want him to get 16 wins so he can get to 300 for his career, but unless he were to blow the doors off of this season, I don’t see it happening (although if he were to get those 16 wins and all the other starters perform to expectation, then you may as well hand Arizona the division).

The bullpen will take on a slightly different look as Jose Velverde is gone from the back-end of the bullpen. Taking over for his league-leading 47 saves will be Brandon Lyon, while Tony Pena (no not THAT Tony Pena) and Chad Qualls move in to take over late-inning setup roles. Pena and Lyon were successful last season, and in adding Qualls, the save numbers might go down due to inexperience (25/40 in save opportunities), but you’ll probably see a bullpen that gels together down the stretch, rather than early in the season, especially with guys like Edgar Gonzalez, Juan Cruz, Doug Slaten, and a deep minor-league relief corps.

(2008 Prediction: 89-73, first in NL West)

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