Just five undefeated teams remain after Saturday, when Syracuse, New Mexico and Illinois each suffered its first loss of the season.
So that leaves Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Cincinnati and Wyoming among the unbeaten. They're in, but who else?
As always, I am not trying to guess how teams will finish the year. I am simply seeding them based on their current resumes.
I like to break teams down into three categories:
1. Wallflowers are bubble teams, because everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor.
2. An Elite team that is safely in the field is "Dancing with a Hottie."
3. A school in the middle is "Dancing with Its Sister."
For two of the past three years, my final bracket projections have been more accurate than those of ESPN's Joe Lunardi, and I had the most accurate projections in the country in 2011.
I'll begin with the two First Four at-large-bid games:
(12a) Kansas State vs. (12d) Stanford
(12b) Colorado State vs. (12c) Texas A&M
First 11 Teams Out
BYU, Xavier, La Salle, Iowa State, Arizona State, Iowa, UCLA, Charlotte, Ole Miss, North Carolina, Saint Louis
The projections are presented in slideshow format, with each major conference receiving its own slide.
First up is the ACC.