B/R NBA March Roundtable: Sizing Up the Stretch Run

(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

With the NBA regular season coming down the stretch, it was time to see why some teams have played so well since the All-Star break, and which teams are most prepared for the postseason. I’ve turned to Andrew Ungvari, one of Bleacher Report’s top NBA writers, and Allen Levin, the bright young community leader of the Miami Heat.

1) Since February, many of the Western Conference’s middle-tiered playoff teams have surged up to match preseason expectations. Which team of Denver, Houston, Utah, Portland, New Orleans, and Dallas is best prepared to win a playoff series?

Erick: Whether because of a return to good-standing health (Utah, New Orleans), or a fortuitous injury (Houston), the Jazz, Hornets, and Rockets have each played better basketball over the second half of the season than the first. Those squads have established themselves with the mercurial Nuggets, steady Blazers, and underwhelming Mavericks as the West’s non-elite playoff teams.

Since Utah can’t win on the road and faces a difficult road schedule to close out the season, they’ll enter the postseason without home court advantage. They’ll need a major break (an underwhelming opponent or a serious injury to an opponent’s key player) to advance to the second round.

Portland’s lack of experience leaves them at a disadvantage while Denver’s concentration lapses leave them paper tigers in the playoff jungle.

Dallas’ defense leaves them woefully unequipped to deal with the West’s power teams in the playoffs, especially if they face the Lakers.

New Orleans has too many games where they don’t play with total effort and teams that go through the motions lack the inner resolve to know how to win close road games in hostile environments.

Houston is rugged, battle-tested, and disciplined. Plus, whatever bad postseason karma they’ve accumulated under Tracy McGrady has been aired out with his knee injury. If their offense is somewhat stale, a more-experienced Yao Ming and a physical Ron Artest give the Rockets' offense more substance than it’s had in years past. Also their defense, possibly the best in the West, can offset some of their offensive deficiencies. This should be the season Houston breaks through.

Andrew: I'm going to say New Orleans based on experience and previous success. Denver and Utah rely way too heavily on home-court advantage, Houston and Portland have yet to have any recent history of success in the playoffs, and Dallas will either be playing the Lakers or Spurs—two teams they don't stand a chance against.

Allen: As usual, the Western Conference is stacked and crowded. Other than the Lakers and the Spurs, there is no clear cut favorite in the West. Every first round matchup in the West will be tough as every team has the ability to pull off an upset.

That being said, the most prepared team to win a playoff series in the West is the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have currently won six of their last seven games and hold a slim lead in the Northwest. They are the West’s fourth seed right now, and should face Portland in the first round with home court advantage.

While this would be an interesting matchup that would most likely need seven games, I suspect the Nuggets would finally get out of the first round. They are a great home team (27-8) and would be able to defeat Portland, as they haven’t been to the playoffs since the 02-03 season.

The addition of Chauncey Billups has really invigorated this Nuggets squad and it will show come playoff time.

2) Atlanta, Miami, Detroit, and Philadelphia have established themselves as the second tier of Eastern Conference playoff teams. Which of the teams has the best shot at moving on to round two of the postseason?

Erick: Philadelphia lacks the halfcourt offense to put pressure on battle-ready defenses so scratch them out and Atlanta still lacks a requisite degree of maturity. With the way Detroit’s offense has reacquainted itself with Rip Hamilton’s poetry around screens, and the way Detroit’s defense has played with purpose without Allen Iverson botching things up, they’re readying themselves for the postseason.

Unfortunately for the Pistons though, Michael Curry makes too many mistakes and isn’t the kind of coach who can make the quick, on the fly adjustments needed to win playoff games. With Dwyane Wade’s brilliance and Eric Spoelstra’s coaching, the Heat are the most prepared playoff team in the group.

Andrew: This is a tough one. I know it's not going to be Philly because they won't finish higher than sixth and they have no chance at beating Cleveland, Boston, or Orlando. Atlanta is the best home team of the group, Miami has the best player of the group (hands down), and Detroit has the most experience.

I'm going to say Atlanta since the Pistons have no shot at getting a first-round series at home and because a game seven between Miami and Atlanta would be played in the ATL. Despite the fact that nobody should be surprised if the Heat were to win that series, I can totally envision the Hawks winning a first round matchup with Miami in seven games. The Hawks are 26-7 at home (tied for sixth-best in the NBA) while the Heat are 12-19 on the road.

Allen: As it stands now, Atlanta and Miami have established themselves as the top two of the second tier Eastern Conference playoffs teams. Also if the season ended today, they would face off in the first round of the postseason. While Atlanta is the better team, I would have to give the Heat the nod for the best shot at moving onto the East Semi-Finals. While I might be biased, no one can deny that Miami has a little advantage called Dwyane Wade.

Wade has been scorching the league recently, averaging a league-leading 29.8 PPG while single-handedly carrying the Heat on his shoulders. In a first round matchup, Wade would be simply too much for the Hawks to handle, which is why I give the Heat the best shot at moving on to round two. Detroit is a fading franchise, while Philadelphia doesn’t really have much of a chance against the Magic.

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