"Too Much, Too Early" for Daisuke Matsuzaka? I Say No

(Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

Rob manages The Bottom Line blog. Read more from Rob HERE.

Daisuke Matsuaka threw 98 pitches over 4 2/3 innings of work in Japan's win over the U.S. in the World Baseball Classic semifinals. He went on to win his second WBC MVP award after going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three starts (14.2 IP).

Great news right? Tony Mazz of the Boston Globe doesn't think so:

Overreacting, you say? Maybe yes, maybe no. Matsuzaka now has been with the Sox for two full seasons and won 33 games, suggesting his big league career is off to a glorious start.

At the same time, Matsuzaka last year pitched fewer innings than any starter in history to win at least 18 games, and he faded badly as a rookie during the second half of a 2007 campaign in which he appeared to be running on fumes in September and October...

Now, with more than a week remaining in March, Matsuzaka is already tossing 98 pitches in 4 2/3 innings of tournament play.

If that doesn't make you a little nervous, it should.

While I don't like the idea of Dice-K throwing 98 pitches in March, I'm not as concerned as Tony is...and I'll explain why.

When Matsuzaka agreed to pitch for Japan in this year's WBC, I was as concerned as the next guy. But back in February we took a look at a few of the starters that chose to represent their country in the 2006 WBC and discovered the following:

Johan Santana gave Venezuela 8.1 innings of work, fanning 10 and posting a 2.16 ERA through two starts. In a Round Two loss to Cuba, Santana threw 67 pitches over five innings...that was on March 14. In comparison, Matsuzaka, in this year's WBC, threw 86 pitches over six innings in a 6-0 win over Cuba on March 15.

86 is more than 67, but consider this: In 2006, Santana (27 at the time) went on to win the Cy Young Award. He pitched 233.2 innings that year, a career high at the time, and another eight in a playoff start against Oakland. He posted a 19-6 record with 245 strikeouts and a 2.77 ERA.

Matsuzaka will turn 29 in September. He started one more game than Santana did in 2006 and was up to 98 pitches, but is that reason enough to be nervous instead of excited?

Let's dig a little deeper...

Matsuzka is a good pitcher, maybe even a great pitcher. But everybody is different and every "body" is different, right? So rather than compare him to Santana, let's just look at his post-2006 WBC stats for the Seibu Lions:

Matsuzaka made 25 starts for the Lions in 2006. He only threw 186 total innings, but posted a career best 2.13 ERA to go along with a 17-5 record and 200 strikeouts. It would appear that the 13 innings (3 starts) he pitched in the 2006 WBC did not slow him down...

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