As a fantasy football owner who has been riding the King Carson wave of production for the past couple of months, please allow me to be the first to tell you something: this is the week to bench him.
Now before you cry foul, point to the dreadful opponent (the Chiefs) and stick your feet in the ground, please consider the following:
Player A: 238 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception per game
Player B: 309 yards, 1.6 touchdowns, 1 interception per game
Player C: 209 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception per game
In an ideal world, which of those three quarterbacks would you want starting for your team this week?
Sure, players A and C are averaging slightly more touchdowns per game this season, but remember how fickle touchdown passes can be throughout a season.
In my mind, I'm taking player B every day and twice on Sunday.
Now, for the big reveal: all three players are Carson Palmer.
Player A is Carson Palmer during Oakland wins this season, Player B is Carson Palmer during Oakland losses this season and Player C is Carson Palmer in Oakland's first game against the Chiefs this season.
My point being this: Carson Palmer is at his best (fantasy-wise) when the Raiders are losing football games.
This weekend against the Chiefs? The Raiders have a very good chance of coming out victorious—and that is why, above all else, I'm saying it's time to bench Palmer.
Now obviously, if you've got no other option, Palmer is still a solid start, but after hearing people tell me they were prepared to start him over guys like Aaron Rodgers (against CHI) or Ben Roethlisberger (against DAL), my mind nearly exploded.
If you look at Palmer's recent track record and actually watch his team play, you'll notice one thing very quickly: Palmer gains most of his yards with the game already decided.
Take last weekend for example. Entering Oakland's final drive of the game, with the team down 26-7, Palmer had just 193 yards and 1 touchdown.
Then, he threw the ball three more times for 80 yards and a touchdown.
Suddenly a line of 193 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception became 273 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception—fantasy gold!
If you go back even further, you'll find that nearly every game for the past month has followed the same pattern. The one common thread? The Raiders losing.
So yes, I think Palmer has been a major fantasy sleeper this season, and yes they're playing the Chiefs, but no, Palmer isn't the guy whose going to give your fantasy team the best chance to win this week.