Those of you smart enough to have snagged David Wilson of the New York Giants off waivers this week—if he's still a free agent in your league, go grab him—should reap the benefits of the rookie's huge game this Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons.
Well, if Ahmad Bradshaw doesn't play, that is.
Of course, it's still a distinct possibility he will play despite dealing with a sprained knee. From Jenny Vrentas of The Star-Ledger:
Bradshaw has sprained knee. Because of his toughness, Coughlin won't rule him out for Sun. Bradshaw, Amukamara, Phillips won't practice.— Jenny Vrentas (@JennyVrentas) December 12, 2012
If Bradshaw does play, it's likely he and Wilson would split snaps and touches pretty evenly. At that point, determining which player has the greater value for fantasy owners would be a crapshoot, and the upside of each would be limited.
However, if Bradshaw can't go and Wilson gets the start, he's instantly an RB1 this week.
First of all, Wilson had a huge game last week, rushing 13 times for 100 yards and two touchdowns (he also returned a kick for a score), scoring 28 fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues. For those of you waiting to see Wilson have his breakout game, you got your wish last week.
Imagine what he might do if he gets 20 or more carries this week?
The Falcons have been friendly to running backs all season long, allowing opposing backs to score 20.2 fantasy points against them per week (26th in NFL) and accumulate 127 rushing yards per game (23rd in NFL).
A year ago in the playoffs, the Giants gashed Atlanta with the rushing game, accumulating 172 yards on the ground. I would expect the Giants to incorporate a similar blueprint in this meeting.
One thing you have to really like about Wilson from a fantasy perspective is his big-play potential. Along with his kick return for a touchdown, he also had a 52-yard run for the Giants' last score. It only takes one long touchdown run for a running back to have a nice day for fantasy owners, and Wilson has that ability.
David Wilson will score ________ fantasy points this week.
Let's get to the projections.
If Bradshaw does play, look for Wilson to have 14 total touches for 65 yards. I wouldn't imagine he'll get any goal-line carries again this week, and hence no touchdowns.
However, if Bradshaw can't play, I like Wilson to see 24 total touches, 90 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Hopefully, those 15 points will help you in your fantasy playoffs.
If you were savvy enough to add him this week, you deserve to be rewarded.
Hit me up on Twitter—I'm projecting 11.2 tweets in standard-scoring leagues this Sunday.