UFC on FOX 5: Mike Swick vs. Matt Brown Head-to-Toe Breakdown

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This may very well be the shortest fight breakdown ever written.

It's like the Green Eggs and Ham of fight breakdowns. Maybe I can do it using only 50 words. 

Simple though its X's and O's may be, the battle between Mike Swick (15-4) and Matt Brown (15-11) might be the most tantalizing non-title fight on Saturday night's UFC on FOX 5 card. When it's all said and done, it might be Fight of the Night.

Standup

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Get your Vaseline ready.

Eight of Brown's 15 wins have come by T/KO. Ditto Swick.

Neither man disguises his intentions, either. Neither is going to put a point jab in your face. Both swing sharp axes, and do so from close range—Swick likes to charge in and launch stinging hooks, Brown likes to clinch. Swick has a slight reach advantage.

Advantage: Swick

Ground

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Brown's Achilles' heel has always been the ground. Crazily, nine of his 11 losses came by submission.

Swick might break the takedown glass in case of emergency, but will probably want to keep things vertical. After all, that's DaMarques Johnson pounding him in the photo. Still, Swick takes this by default.

Advantage: Swick

Intangibles

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Swick burst out of a two-year injury hibernation with a vicious KO of Johnson. But it was Johnson's second-to-last fight for the UFC, so it's not a definitive measuring stick.

Brown has won three straight and is probably more confident than ever. His brawling mentality will never be of better use in a fight than it will be in this one.

Advantage: Brown

Bottom Line

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Swick has some advantages, but a win over Johnson does not a full comeback make.

Matt Brown has never lost a standup brawl. This will be a standup brawl. If A equals B, and B equals C, A has to equal C. In other words, sound the upset alarms.

Told you this was gonna be short.

Prediction: Brown by unanimous decision