Updated NFL MVP Odds After NFL Week 13

James Dudko@@JamesDudkoFeatured ColumnistDecember 4, 2012

Updated NFL MVP Odds After NFL Week 13

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    The NFL MVP odds see some big names take a drop after Week 13. Those names include Drew Brees, whose five interceptions took the New Orleans Saints out of playoff contention.

    In addition to those who've fallen from the list, there is a return for 2012's first overall pick. He challenges the established order dominated by prime favourites Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

    Here are the updated MVP odds after Week 13.

Top Players Falling out of Contention: Drew Brees and Ray Rice

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    Last week, this author argued that the Baltimore Ravens would be wise to give Ray Rice the ball more often. This would not only improve the Ravens' chances for success, it would also boost his MVP odds.

    Sadly, it seems the Ravens, and specifically Cam Cameron, will never learn. Week 13 saw the Ravens again pay the price for letting Joe Flacco lead the way.

    Sliding from the list along with Rice, Drew Brees' MVP odds may never recover from his worst game as a pro.

    His five interceptions let the Atlanta Falcons escape with a win, despite being otherwise thoroughly dominated.

9. J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans

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    J.J. Watt continues to be a force for the Houston Texans. He dominated the line of scrimmage against the overwhelmed Tennessee Titans in Week 13.

    Watt registered a sack and chipped in with five solo tackles. His brute power spearheaded a defensive effort that held Titans rusher Chris Johnson to just 51 yards.

    He also forced his first fumble of the season, a long overdue stat. Two more batted passes gives the second-year defensive lineman an amazing 15 pass breakups for the season.

    Watt makes the Texans' 5-2 defensive front work. While they have struggled without Brian Cushing and since losing Brooks Reed, the Texans defense would falter completely without Watt.

    Odds: 45-1

8. Von Miller, OLB/DE, Denver Broncos

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    Von Miller is perhaps the most complete defensive player in football. He is essential to the Denver Broncos defense and their overall success.

    Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Miller was a playmaker in every phase of the game. He collected six combined tackles and notched his 15th sack of the season.

    Miller also showed his capability as a true linebacker, recording one pass defense and snaring an interception. The versatile and dominant 23-year-old has to be a legitimate MVP candidate.

    Odds: 40-1

7. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

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    In Week 13, Adrian Peterson somehow managed to exceed his previous outstanding performances this season. Peterson outran the Green Bay Packers defense, gaining an incredible 210 yards on just 21 carries.

    That effort has all but ended the race for the NFL rushing title. In fact, Peterson has a great chance to surpass his career-best mark of 1,760, achieved in 2008.

    What's most impressive about Peterson's season is that despite returning from ACL surgery, he remains a prolific big-play threat. Peterson leads the NFL in runs of 20 yards or more with 17. He also tops the list for gains of 40-plus yards with five.

    At 6-6, the Vikings face a tough task making the playoffs. That's a shame, because if they did, Peterson would surely have to be awarded MVP.

    Odds: 30-1

6. Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts

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    Andrew Luck is another player who has propelled his team to playoff contention. The Indianapolis Colts quarterback was again the decisive factor in another win in Week 13.

    The rookie threw four touchdowns to lift his team past the Detroit Lions. Those scoring passes were the highlights of a 391-yard performance that was only blighted by three interceptions.

    That led to a huge road win that moves the Colts to 8-4. It's always surprising that Luck isn't given more serious consideration for league MVP.

    Peyton Manning's absence made enough of a difference to see the Colts tumble to 2-14. It says something that Luck's inclusion can add at least six wins just one year later.

    Only 16 interceptions and being a rookie keep Luck's odds this low.

    Odds: 20-1

5. Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins

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    Robert Griffin III's dual-threat abilities continue to baffle defenses and win games for an otherwise average Washington Redskins team.

    This year's second overall pick has more than lived up to his draft status. His scoring output justifies the trade the Redskins made to move up and select him.

    In Week 13, Griffin was instrumental in the Redskins' most significant win of the season. His ability to make big plays in the clutch guided them past the New York Giants.

    Griffin directed three scoring drives. He added vital points just before the half and threw the winning score to start the fourth quarter. He finished with only 163 yards passing, but he again protected the ball.

    Griffin still has only four interceptions for the season, compared to 17 touchdown passes. He also made the plays when it counted against the defending Super Bowl champions.

    His second-down completion to Pierre Garcon late in the fourth quarter all but sealed the game. His 72 rushing yards gave him the new single-season rookie record for a quarterback.

    Griffin has transformed a previously stagnant offense, and his impact is pushing the Redskins towards the playoffs.

    Odds: 18-1

4. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

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    Another uninspired showing should maybe see Matt Ryan fall further. However, the Falcons' 11-1 mark and his spectacular early-season form keep Ryan prominent in the MVP voting.

    That still doesn't hide the fact that Atlanta's quarterback has struggled mightily in recent weeks. He is no longer a model of efficiency and consistent source of big plays.

    Ryan did manage to avoid turnovers against the Saints in Week 13. That was only after being guilty of seven takeaways in his two previous games.

    The issue against the Saints was feeble production. Ryan went 18-of-33 for only 165 yards against the Saints' porous defense.

    He still has more-than-respectable numbers. However, Ryan's 22 touchdowns to 13 interceptions don't compare well to those higher on this list.

    Odds: 12-1

3. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

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    Last year's MVP has been a little sluggish in his last three games. In fact, Aaron Rodgers hasn't managed to reach 300 yards passing since Week 7.

    The Packers offense simply isn't as dynamic as in recent seasons. Rodgers' MVP odds are naturally suffering as a result.

    What counts in his favour are 29 touchdown passes and a 105.0 rating. However, if he wants to retain the MVP award, Rodgers must finish the season with bigger weekly overall numbers.

    Odds: 9-1

2. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

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    Tom Brady wasn't at his best in Week 13, thanks to a stubborn Miami Dolphins defense. That sees him drop to the No. 2 spot.

    Brady suffered four sacks and threw an interception against his AFC East rivals. That meant the New England Patriots weren't their usual prolific selves on offense.

    Of course, Brady never struggles for long. He also still has 25 touchdowns compared to only four interceptions.

    In the next two weeks, Brady will take on the Texans and the San Francisco 49ers. If he directs scoring sprees against those defensively rugged contenders, Brady will be a lock for MVP.

    Odds: 6-1

1. Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos

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    Peyton Manning reclaims the top spot after helping the Denver Broncos seal the AFC West. Manning exposed the Buccaneers defense for three key touchdowns.

    That gives him 29 scoring passes for the season. It's amazing how quickly Manning has transformed Denver's offense into the model he ran so smoothly for years in Indianapolis.

    His intelligence and efficiency have secured the division crown for the Broncos and made them legitimate AFC contenders. That's enough to make Manning the favourite for NFL MVP after 13 weeks.

    Odds: 4-1