Ahmad Bradshaw has battled injuries for much of the season. He has seen his touchdowns poached by Andre Brown and has a matchup against the Washington Redskins, a team so poor against the pass the New York Giants are sure to throw the rock all over the field.
So why exactly am I predicting Bradshaw will be good for 15 fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues tonight?
For one, Brown is out for the season after breaking his left fibula. While rookie David Wilson will get touches, he won't be a threat near the goal line. In other words, Bradshaw no longer has a touchdown vulture to concern himself with.
Fantasy owners, rejoice!
Besides, even if David Wilson does get several touches in this game, that shouldn't slow Bradshaw down or hurt his fantasy production. Remember when Brown rushed for 113 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4 against the Carolina Panthers while Bradshaw was injured?
Well, everyone was worried he would become the guy and steal Bradshaw's fantasy value.
Bradshaw has five double-digit games this season and has only failed to reach at least five fantasy points twice this season. He came into the week ranked as the No. 14 running back in standard-scoring leagues.
Okay Tim, we get it—his value should only increase without Brown stealing touches in the red zone, and Wilson won't steal too many fantasy points. But does Bradshaw really have a great matchup tonight?
The statistics don't scream "15 fantasy points for Bradshaw" in this one. The Redskins allow just 15.8 fantasy points to opposing running backs per week, 12th in the NFL, and just 89.2 rushing yards per game, third in the NFL.
But Bradshaw has a lot of touchdown value in this game. The Giants are going to throw all over Washington's 31st-ranked pass defense, meaning Bradshaw could see multiple chances near the goal line.
And a Giants' running back, either Brown or Bradshaw, has scored a touchdown in every week except Week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles. The odds suggest either Bradshaw or Wilson will get in the end zone tonight, and my money's on Bradshaw.
Finally, don't go worrying about the fact that Bradshaw was limited in practice on Saturday. He's listed as probable, and he's been beat up all year and often doesn't practice much during the week anyway.
That hasn't stopped him from producing, however.
So with all of the above in mind, I'm projecting Bradshaw to rush for 65 yards, catch three passes for 25 yards and score a touchdown.
If you took the slight risk and kept him in your lineup for this Monday night matchup, you'll be quite pleased with your decision.
Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets always come up big in primetime.
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