If you're in a pick 'em league, you may want to take a gander at this before making your Week 13 selections.
Week 13 of the 2012 NFL season has a handful of home teams with hefty spreads, some of which I think are going to lose outright.
Sometimes the oddsmakers are dead on. And then there's those weeks when they pick the New York Jets as favorites (AKA when oddsmakers are off) no matter who they're playing.
All jokes aside, I'm here to convince you not to automatically pick the home teams this weekend, even if you're already lined up to claim the cellar-dweller prize.
*Note: All spreads via Bet Online
Detroit Lions (-5)
The Lions have lost three in a row.
The Indianapolis Colts have won five of their list six—including two on the road. Am I missing something?
I know the Lions were up against some stiff competition in those losses, but I still can't see them being favored by five points with the way the Colts have been playing.
In fact, I have Indianapolis leaving Ford Field with a win on Sunday, as Reggie Wayne has found the fountain of youth and T.Y. Hilton has emerged as Luck's clear-cut No. 2.
Maybe I'm buying too much into the Colts or maybe I'm just right, but I like what they're doing in Indy.
New York Jets (-4.5)
Call me crazy, but I'm riding with the Arizona Cardinals with that spread.
Against a team like the Jets, all it takes is one play to make a difference, and the Cards have that type of player in Patrick Peterson.
Arizona is pretty terrible against the pass, but that works out in their favor this weekend, because, not coincidentally, Mark Sanchez is pretty bad throwing a football. The Cardinals actually have a solid run defense, to which I think they'll utilize to shut down Shonn Greene.
It may seem like I'm making the Jets the butt of all my jokes, butt I'm not. I promise.
In reality, they're actually worse at home (2-4) than they are on the road (2-3).
The Cardinals have lost seven games in a row after starting the season 4-0, but they've been playing some elite teams during that losing streak (San Francisco, Green Bay and Atlanta), and who better to get back on track against than Gang Green?
Denver Broncos (-8)
While I like Peyton Manning and the Broncos here, I'm not a big fan of that spread.
Eight points is a lot, especially against a soaring offense like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers'.
Josh Freeman and Vincent Jackson have been a sensational combination all season and Doug Martin—the Muscle Hamster—is the No. 4 rusher in the NFL.
I fully expect Manning to pick apart the Bucs' D, but what I don't expect is a blowout. Tampa hasn't shown any ill effects from hitting the road, winning three in a row away from Raymond James Stadium.
You can look forward to a high-scoring affair at Mile High this Sunday, but don't get your hopes up for Denver to cover the large spread.
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