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NFL Picks Week 13: Predicting Stone Cold Locks Against the Spread

CHICAGO, IL - NOVEMBER 25:  Jay Cutler #6 of the Chicago Bears participates in warm-ups before a game against the Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field on November 25, 2012 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Vikings 28-10.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Alex KayCorrespondent INovember 29, 2012

With Week 13 of the NFL season starting tonight, gamblers are going to want to start placing some early action on the Sunday slate of games, especially before the lines move against their favor.

It’s important to identify value early in the week and get a wager in prior to the general public swinging the point spreads and decreasing your odds of winning.

Let’s take a look at three games we think should definitely cover if you can get them at or around these numbers.

Point spreads courtesy of ScoresAndOdds.com, home team in CAPS.

 

CHICAGO BEARS (-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks

In Week 12, the Seahawks once again proved that they aren’t a solid road team, losing a critical game in Miami to the Dolphins. They aren’t going to have any luck against the elite Bears either, especially not when the game is taking place at Soldier Field.

It’s smart to lay the points with the home team, more as a bet against Seattle than it is in favor of Chicago. The Seahawks are a completely different group when they travel away from CenturyLink Field, and it shows time-and-time again.

As a general rule of thumb, anytime the Seahawks are home, you should take them on the spread and fade them on the road. It’s no different this week, as we predict the Bears will win by at least a TD.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) at BUFFALO BILLS

Chad Henne has been a revelation for the Jaguars, taking over for an injured Blaine Gabbert and helping the team reach OT against the league-leading Texans and securing a victory over the Tennessee Titans.

We predict the QB will lead Jacksonville to its second-straight victory in Week 13, a feat not accomplished by the franchise since the 2010 campaign. That would be a cover straight up and against the spread.

For those that are skeptical on the Jags, this is still simply too many points for the Bills to lay. If you feel that Buffalo will outright win this at home, it’s three points too many and the Jags are the obvious play here.

 

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

The Bengals are in the midst of a serious playoff push in the AFC North, and aren’t going to be slowed by an atrociously coached team like the Chargers.

While Cincy does have to make a bit of a trip west to play San Diego, it is crucial at this point in the season to stay above .500 and keep winning games in order to make the postseason.

Because the Bengals should straight up win, it would be foolish not to give up the point and a half on Sunday with this dark horse.

If you have any doubts, go watch the overtime footage of the Chargers taking on the Ravens last week and that should put them to rest.

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