There weren’t many underdogs giving a ton of points in Week 12, and yet they still managed to cover just under 50 percent.
Underdogs find a way to cover the points, no matter how little cushion they have to utilize. It’s been a bizarre trend that has sustained throughout 2012, as ESPN contributor Dave Tuley notes:
ViewFromVegas of #NFL...favorites 8-7-1 ATS in Week 12...season to date, dogs lead 94-76-5 (55.3%)...over/unders 87-87-2— Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) November 27, 2012
The underdog train won’t stop running in Week 13. There are three teams that are stone-cold locks to cover this weekend.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) at Denver Broncos
Josh Freeman and Co. fell only one point short of an Atlanta team that ranks among the league’s best. Let’s not forget they were favored at the beginning of last week’s game.
Now they’re touchdown underdogs at Denver? Four or five points, sure, but a touchdown is too many points for one of the NFC’s hottest teams not to cover.
Denver has impressed during their six-game winning streak, but five of those teams have losing records. The Bucs will expose Denver in a big way at Mile High.
Philadelphia Eagles (+10) at Dallas Cowboys
While all home teams get a boost in the spread from Vegas, the Cowboys home field is more of a disadvantage.
The Eagles always manage to play the Cowboys tough, and now that Nick Foles has his bearings as a signal-caller, this matchup should come down to the wire.
Only three weeks ago the Eagles were only down a field goal to Dallas until the Cowboys pick-sixed Foles and got a touchdown from their special teams.
The Eagles will have a full gameplan prepared this time with all their personnel in place.
Get those double digits points while they’re available.
St. Louis Rams (+7.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Rams found a way to compete with the Niners in the Bay Area. With the home crowd behind them, they need to push those same buttons to keep this week’s result within a touchdown.
St. Louis will have Danny Amendola fully healthy and he will be a huge part of their offense this time around. Fresh off a convincing win in Arizona, Jeff Fisher’s team is getting better as the season goes on.
San Francisco has gone through an offensive resurgence with Colin Kaepernick, but he will face the toughest secondary he’s faced to date, led by Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins.
This game won’t end in a tie, but the Rams will hang around to cover.