NFL Picks Week 13: 3 Against the Spread Locks

Dan Pizzuta@@DanPizzutaContributor IIINovember 26, 2012

NFL Picks Week 13: 3 Against the Spread Locks

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    As we start to move away from Week 12 in the NFL, it's never too early to start looking at the lines for games during Week 13.

    The playoff picture is starting to become clearer, and the lines are starting to favor the playoff-bound teams.

    These picks bring the best value early in the week with lines, especially for teams on the road, that will probably shift before kickoff on Sunday.

    All lines are from FootballLOCKS

Indianapolis (+4.5) at Detroit

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    This line seems to be a little high and will probably drop to around 3.5 before kickoff.

    Detroit is coming off a shootout loss against the Texans on Thanksgiving, and the Colts are coming off a win against Buffalo.

    Neither defense has been spectacular this season, and this definitely won't be a 7-3 game.

    Andrew Luck is doing something special this season and is only a win away from breaking the all-time record for wins by a rookie quarterback selected No. 1 overall.

    The value is too good on the Colts to get 4.5 points, take it before the line goes down later in the week.

Jacksonville (+6) at Buffalo

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    Chad Henne may be the savior everyone thought Tim Tebow could possibly be for a struggling Jaguars team. OK, maybe not, but he's definitely better than Blaine Gabbert.

    Since Henne has taken over at quarterback for the Jaguars, the passing game has erupted. Cecil Shorts is starting to become a well-known name, and Justin Blackmon has looked like an actual NFL receiver during the past two weeks.

    Buffalo is coming off a loss on the road at Indianapolis but is slightly better than their 4-7 record would indicate.

    Still, at this point in the season there are not many teams Buffalo could be considered six points better than, and Jacksonville isn't one of them.

Cincinnati (+1) at San Diego

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    If you have watched San Diego play at all this season, you might find it puzzling how the Chargers are favored against anyone—let alone a hot team with a better record.

    San Diego has won two of the last nine games, and both of those wins have come against Kansas City. The Chargers are also coming of of one of the Norv Turner-iest losses in Norv Turner's tenure as a coach.

    Meanwhile, Cincinnati has been on fire, winning the last three games by 18, 22 and 24.

    There's no way the Chargers should be favored in this game, even at home. And don't be surprised if that's reflected in a line change by the end of the week.

    But for now, taking points with a hot team against San Diego is too good to pass up. This might be the best lock of the season.