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Pittsburgh Pirates (Odds to win NL Central: 20/1; O/U Wins: 67.5)
While there are surprises in store later in this article, one thing that won't surprise anyone is that Pittsburgh remains one of the least talented teams in baseball. The Pirates are like the anti-Tampa Bay Rays in that they've picked in the top of the draft for years, yet have managed to accrue very little talent.
They have shown no signs of digging their way out of the cellar of the NL Central; on the contrary, they seem to dig themselves into a deeper hole year after year with poor drafting and uninspired free-agent acquisitions.
Sporting one of the worst starting rotations in the league to compliment a horrendous offense, the Pirates will be even worse in 2009 than in 2008, so bet appropriately.
O/U: UNDER
Houston Astros (20/1 ; 73.5)
Based on "Pythagorean Record" (determining won/lost record by runs scored and runs allowed), the Astros were one of the luckiest teams in baseball last year, finishing nearly 10 games better than expected.
This year, they will not be so lucky.
With an anemic offense anchored by two very good but aging sluggers (Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman) surrounded by a wealth of replacement-level (or worse) talent, the Astros will be scoring runs like a soccer team in 2009. With a pitching staff very similar to their offense (one stud followed by a bunch of average to below-average hurlers), the Astros will have a very difficult time winning any game not started by Roy Oswalt.
All that said, the sportsbooks seem to be using the same line of reasoning as us and have set the over/under very low, so we would probably avoid any "futures" bets on Houston altogether.
O/U: AVOID
St. Louis Cardinals (8/3 ; 82.5)
The Cardinals boast the game's best overall player in Albert Pujols, yet unfortunately surround him with one of the worst supporting casts in the majors.
For years now, Pujols has basically carried the Cardinals on his back, and they're going to be asking the same of him in 2009. While there are quite a few home run threats on the team, Pujols is the only one who also hits for average and solo shots only help so much.
On the pitching side, there is very little to like beyond Adam Wainwright, in the rotation or the bullpen. Finally, factor in the injury and regression risks on this team and it's tough to project the Cardinals to finish any better than .500.
O/U: UNDER, but barely
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