Last Minute Odds, Picks Against the Spread for NFL Week 12

Zach KruseSenior Analyst INovember 25, 2012

Last Minute Odds, Picks Against the Spread for NFL Week 12

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    The Thursday Thanksgiving games are in the books for Week 12, but thanks to the end of bye weeks, a full 13-game schedule awaits for Sunday and Monday. 

    That reality just means more betting lines and odds to sink your teeth into over the next two days.

    And while betting on football is far from a science, we can combine betting trends and recent performance to give us a more clear picture of the task at hand for each game. 

    In the following slides, we break down and present you a winner against the spread for each game left on the Week 12 schedule. 

    Note: All lines and odds taken from ESPN.com's aggregation of betting websites. 

Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5)

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    The 9.5-point line here will test your confidence in a team that is only .500 this season straight-up. But the Raiders are also 3-7 against the spread this season and have not covered in almost a month, so there's a reason why the line is high.

    While still somewhat risky, it's not crazy to think the Bengals can beat a bad Raiders team at home by 10 or more. 

    Pick ATS: Bengals

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-6.0)

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    Jay Cutler being healthy and able to start changes everything. A line that likely would have crept Minnesota's way is now squarely in Chicago's hands, and a 6.0-point line isn't ridiculous for a team that plays considerably better when Cutler is under center. 

    Pick ATS: Bears

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+1.0)

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    37-year-old starting quarterback Charlie Batch is the great equalizer here, and it's hard to envision him scoring a lot of points on his own Sunday on the road.

    But all the Steelers need to do here is win by more than a point. And you'd have to think Brandon Weeden will have a few giveaways Sunday that set the Steelers up for some easy points, even with Batch under center.

    Pick ATS: Steelers

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-3.0)

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    The Colts have covered four of five spreads at home this season, mostly because Andrew Luck is such a better player at home early in his NFL career. His passer rating is over 23 points higher in Indianapolis than it is on the road (88.6 at home, 65.4 away).

    If Luck plays well, Colts cover easily at home. 

    Pick ATS: Colts

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5)

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    We're taking the Broncos to cover a big spread, but there's plenty of reasons to think the Chiefs—despite an awful look for most of this season—will be the ones doing the covering Sunday.

    Home underdogs of over 10 points are usually a smart bet, especially in division games, and the Chiefs have actually covered against the Saints, Ravens and Steelers already in 2012. Still, Peyton Manning is 5-1 covering the spread as a favorite this season. 

    Pick ATS: Broncos

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (+3.0)

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    If you can, pass on this game. The Seahawks are traveling a long ways from home, and this team simply hasn't been as good on the road (2-3 against the spread) in 2012. Miami is also a solid 4-2 as the underdog this season.

    I like the Seahawks to win, but lean on the Dolphins if you have to pick who covers this three-point spread.

    Pick ATS: Dolphins

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.0)

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    The Bucs have slowly become the NFL's safest bet against the spread in 2012, covering in eight of 10 games this season. We like Tampa Bay to win straight up and cover the one-point underdog spread, partly because the Bucs can run and stop the run. 

    Pick ATS: Buccaneers

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.0)

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    Is anyone going to bet on this game? That's the real question here. But if there are bettors, the trends say Tennessee convincingly.

    The Jaguars haven't covered a single spread at home this season (0-5), and there's a big letdown coming after nearly beating the Texans on the road in Week 11. 

    Pick ATS: Titans

Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers (Push)

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    The action has moved this game to a straight push for several reasons. The Chargers whooped up on the Ravens last season for starters, but Baltimore is also coming off an emotional win against its top rival in Week 11. The letdown scenario is set up pretty nicely here. 

    Pick ATS: Chargers

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (+1.0)

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    Bettors are coming around on the Saints, who have covered in five of their last six games after a disastrous start. The 49ers are no joke (see: 32-7 beat down of Chicago), but also not a betting juggernaut (see: 24-24 non-cover vs. Rams). You have to wonder what that brewing quarterback controversy in San Francisco will do on a short week too...

    Pick ATS: Saints

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1.0)

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    There's not a lot to like about this game both viewing or betting-wise. However, the trends do say the Rams will cover. St. Louis is 6-3 against the spread and 3-1 as the road underdog. Ugly game, but the Rams will get another cover on the road in Arizona. 

    Pick ATS: Rams

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-3.0)

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    There are some trends that point to Green Bay here, including the Giants' 1-4 record against the spread this season and the Packers' big cover in a prime-time road game in Houston a few weeks back.

    But there's also factors working against Green Bay too. The Giants are coming off the bye, and the Packers are beat up across the board injury-wise. 

    Pick ATS: Giants

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.0)

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    Easy pick here despite the straight-up records. The Eagles are 2-8 against the spread this season and just 1-4 at home, while the Panthers have been decent in covering on the road. No LeSean McCoy for rookie quarterback Nick Foles pushes this clearly in Carolina's favor. 

    Pick ATS: Panthers