It's rare to see a double-digit home underdog in a division rivalry game, but that will be the case when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium.
It's even rarer when the favorite comes into that game riding an 0-10 ATS (against the spread) streak as a big favorite, but that's what Denver brings to this matchup.
Kansas City was a 10.5-point home underdog as of Friday at most shops tracked by OddsShark.com. Denver, for its part, has failed to cover 10 in a row as a fave of eight or more points. The one time that it was a double-digit road favorite, it lost 33-19 here in KC.
Kansas City has lost seven straight games and is just 1-9 SU (straight up) and 3-7 ATS on the season. While the Chiefs have had their share of troubles on both sides of the ball, the offense has been particularly abysmal, averaging just 10.67 points per game over the last six games.
Kansas City will turn to Brady Quinn to spark the offense this week, as the quarterback returns from a concussion he suffered four games ago.
The Denver Broncos are going in the opposite direction, with five straight wins and a 4-1 ATS record over their last five games. The Broncos have scored at least 30 points over each of those five games and are averaging 33.2 points per game while allowing just 19.8 points per game over that stretch.
With a 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS record, Denver is in total command of the AFC West at this point and is essentially playing for playoff seeding.
The total has gone UNDER in each of the last three games between these two AFC West rivals and has also gone UNDER in nine of Kansas City’s last 12 home games overall. Kansas City is 6-3 SU in its last nine home games against the Denver Broncos.
On paper, there is no reason why Denver can’t win this game by 11 or more, as the Broncos are clearly the superior team. But with last week’s win over San Diego, Denver all but locked up the AFC West, and having a letdown game overlooking a weak team like Kansas City wouldn’t come as a big surprise.
The Broncos will win, but look for the Chiefs to keep it closer than most expect.
PICK: Kansas City +10.5 (courtesy of PickShark.com)