NFL Picks Against the Spread: Best Bet, Upset and Lock for Week 12
The Thanksgiving holiday is upon us and it is time to give thanks to the NFL schedule makers for giving us a big plate for football in Week 12.
This is the time of year where teams are scrambling to get a victory and stay in the hunt for the playoffs. Using the latest NFL lines here is a best bet, upset, and lock for week 12.
Steelers vs. Browns
The Pittsburgh Steelers are hurting on offense and this week against the Cleveland Browns they will be starting their third-string quarterback.
Veteran signal-caller Charlie Batch will take over under center as he attempts to keep the Steelers in the AFC North divisional race.
The Browns are not winning football games but they play with a physical style on the field. Rookies Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson have amplified the Browns offense and this team is just a few pieces away from being legitimate contenders.
The Steelers have a bad habit of playing down to their competition. They are 1-4 against the spread (ATS) when playing a team with a losing record and 2-7 ATS in the last nine road games.
Despite their poor record, the Browns never give up and that is why they are the upset of the week. The Browns win this game as divisional home underdogs as one of the many best bets of the week.
Upset: Browns +1
Browns 13 Steelers 10
Broncos vs. Chiefs
The best bet of the NFL week is the Kansas City Chiefs (+10) points over the Denver Broncos.
Before you shake your head in disgust or wonder if I am hopped up on turkey, hear me out.
The Chiefs are a home divisional underdog which is always a good angle to bet on. It gets even more interesting when that home team is a double-digit underdog.
Betting on a double-digit home underdog has been a bankroll builder over the last three seasons. Check out this stat: Home underdogs of eight or more points are 22-2 ATS over the past three years.
That is an amazing stat, but this is the Chiefs, the one-win, seven-game losing streak Chiefs.
However it should be noted that when playing top teams in the NFL, the Chiefs actually put up a fight. The Chiefs took the Steelers to the wire in Pittsburgh, stayed within three-points of the Baltimore Ravens, and beat the New Orleans Saints.
The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in the last five games against a team with a winning record and they are the best bet of the week.
Best Bet: Chiefs +10
Broncos 27 Chiefs 24
Packers vs. Giants
In the Sunday Night Football game of the week, the Green Bay Packers head to the Big Apple to battle the New York Giants.
The Giants enter this game off a bye-week and it could not have come at a better time. The Giants were destroyed before the bye getting humiliated against the Cincinnati Bengals. Rumors swirled of Eli Manning suffering from a “tied-arm” and the Giants embraced the time off to prepare for the Packers.
Manning was the first to admit that the bye week came at a good time. (via ESPN New York)
"It felt like the ball was coming out where I wanted it to," said Manning, who threw Monday for the first time since last Monday. "I think it definitely had a little bit more pop to it. You take a week off, and it will definitely give it a little bit more fire, so it was good."
Manning will be glad to face a Packers defense that will be without Clay Matthews (hamstring) and Charles Woodson (broken collarbone).
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers overcame those defense liabilities against the Detroit Lions, but will not be able to hide them against the Giants.
The Giants are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 games against a team with a winning record and that is good enough to be called the lock of the week.
Giants 30 Packers 20